Evergrande is not another Lehman Brothers (probably)

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an overextended developer of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - [Evergrande won’t be the next Lehman](. Probably. - Companies should [impose vaccine mandates now](. - [Facebook must choose]( between growth and peace and quiet. - [Europe’s gas shortage]( will only get worse. Too Big to Fail: China Edition On a Financial Nightmare scale that runs from “New Jersey deli is worth $100 million” to “Lehman Brothers,” China Evergrande Group probably falls somewhere in the middle, maybe just below “Long-Term Capital Management.” It could be terrible. It probably won’t be. Hopefully. Global markets didn’t wait to have a big old freak-out about the idea of Evergrande Fever spreading around the world. U.S. stocks suffered their biggest puke in almost a year. But it’s hard to see how this Chinese developer — which is massive but only about half as indebted as Lehman was — would trigger another global financial crisis, especially when [China has no desire whatsoever to chance anything]( like that happening, as John Authers writes. Beijing does seem eager to end the frenzied borrowing that got Evergrande in trouble. And it doesn’t hesitate to attack companies that cloud the Communist Party’s vision for the economy; the [next target could be Hong Kong property barons](, writes Shuli Ren. But China would probably rather smother its big, scary debt problem with cash than let the economy burn right now. Anyway, Evergrande has been slowly unraveling for weeks now. A more realistic explanation for today’s sudden market agita is that asset prices had gotten way ahead of themselves, ignoring toxic U.S. politics, the delta variant, a tightening Fed, AOC’s Met Gala dress and other horrors. All that blissful calm was terrible for trading revenue at America’s banks, writes Brian Chappatta. The same firms caught in the Lehman meltdown 13 years ago [could use a nice, contained little market panic now](. Bonus Market-Panic-Fodder Reading: - The [Fed should start tapering QE now](, but it probably won’t. — Mohamed El-Erian - The [Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility]( is at stake. — Bill Dudley A Better Covid Response Is Possible In excellent news for that large section of America’s Venn diagram where people who believe in vaccines overlap with people who have young children, Pfizer and BioNTech said their Covid shots [worked safely]( in kids ages 5 to 11. The day is coming soon when we can send them to school even more safely. Fortunately, for now, even the more contagious delta variant isn’t putting large numbers of young kids in the hospital or worse, writes Justin Fox. It has also been less deadly for the oldest Americans, probably because so many are vaccinated. But [Covid is taking a tragic toll on young and middle-aged adults](, who are of prime working age and also prime not-getting-vaccinated age, apparently: This is all the more reason for companies to answer President Joe Biden’s invitation and [impose a vaccine mandate on their workers](, writes Tim O’Brien. It’s the best way to protect these vulnerable people and get us all out of the pandemic more quickly. And companies shouldn’t wait for OSHA to tell them what to do. Bonus Pandemic-Impact Reading: [WFH is an overrated trend](, says economist Enrico Moretti. Big cities will stay big. — Justin Fox Facebook Has a Toxic Golden Goose Problem Facebook has a dilemma, writes Parmy Olson: On the one hand, everybody is angry with it for pumping toxic garbage into people’s heads all day long, shredding democracy and the very fabric of our society. On the other hand, [toxic garbage is good for business](. Facebook’s team in charge of “growth” — a word that can mean either “expansion” or “a kind of tumor” — has Mark Zuckerberg’s ear, and its primary mission is keeping people glued to Facebook as much as possible. And people love snarfing brain poison all day long, it turns out. Something has to give here, unless Facebook just wants even more regulatory scrutiny. Bonus Tech-Oligarch Reading: While Elon Musk wins the space race, Jeff [Bezos slows it down with lawsuits]( complaining about his losses. — Adam Minter Telltale Charts [Europe is running low on gas supplies]( ahead of winter, with little relief in sight, writes Julian Lee. There will [soon be an oversupply of populist outrage]( about rising energy costs, writes Lionel Laurent. [Everybody remembers Germany’s hyperinflation wrong](, including the Germans, writes Andreas Kluth. In the popular imagination, the Weimar Republic’s hyperinflation led directly to the Nazis taking power. For some reason we all forget that Germany’s real problem in the 1930s — the time of the Great Depression, you may recall — was not hyperinflation but deflation. Further Reading We need better safeguards to [keep a president from up and launching a nuclear war](. — Bloomberg’s editorial board The U.S. [economy increasingly favors women](, who are more likely to go to college and have more opportunities. — Allison Schrager There are [no climate safe havens in America](. — Frank Wilkinson The [Kremlin just won another election](, but it had to work harder than ever. — Clara Ferreira Marques The 9/11 terrorists didn’t change the world. The [democracies that responded to them did](, and not for the better. — Pankaj Mishra Businesses [should be able to ask about hirees’ economic backgrounds]( to foster class diversity, as long as they do it carefully. — Chris Hughes [Wokeism could be America’s next great cultural export](, and that’s not a bad thing. — Tyler Cowen ICYMI The U.S. will [open air travel to most vaccinated foreigners](. Ending extra unemployment benefits [hasn’t boosted employment](. Your chicken probably has [white striping disease]( (not to be confused with the [White Stripes](). Kickers Wanted: a new “Lord of the Rings” trilogy with [Kermit as Gollum](. (h/t Scott Kominers) Something [big just hit Jupiter](. Something [big hit a Middle Eastern city]( 3,600 years ago, possibly inspiring the story of Sodom. The [psychology of betting big]( and losing it all. Notes:  Please send dead leaves and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. 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