Trump’s GDP was the worst since Hoover’s, but who’s counting?

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a gross domestic product of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Trump’s GDP growth was [the worst since Hoover’s](. - Consumers’ [pandemic caution could be lasting](. - America could use [some help with the Taliban](. - Margin forecasts [don’t look good for stocks](. Herbert Hoover, seen here trying to end the Great Depression by boosting wicker sales. Photographer: General Photographic Agency/Hulton Archive/Getty Images Grading Trump on a GDP Curve There’s a reason U.S. presidents mostly avoid crowing about stocks or GDP or jobs numbers. Presidents have little control over broader market or economic trends, which can always be upended by nightmares such as terrorist attacks, pandemics and the United States Congress. Former President Donald Trump broke with tradition by taking credit when stocks and growth numbers were favorable. He even went so far as to set specific [targets](, a rookie mistake. So to some extent he was almost asking for people to read too much into a chart like this one, from Justin Fox: JFK and Trump are highlighted because they have the best and worst records, respectively. They don’t show up in this chart, but FDR and Harry Truman also had better GDP results than Trump. That means [Trump’s record was the worst since Herbert Hoover](, never a name you want to see in your BuzzFeed “Which Former President Are You?” quiz results. There are many, many “to be sures” and “to be fairs” here. There was that whole pandemic thing, most important. Did Trump jump on the relief necessary to keep the economy from melting down to Earth’s core? Yes. But did he unnecessarily prolong and worsen the pandemic, deepening the economic impact? Also yes. You can massage the numbers in different reasonable ways and come up with results that are slightly more flattering to Trump’s record, as Justin does. But there is also the weird, unavoidable fact that economic growth generally has been better under Democrats than under Republicans. Even Jimmy Carter had the exact same GDP record as Ronald Reagan, believe it or not. Does this speak to: - the inadequacy of GDP as a measure of presidential performance, - the teensy sample size, or - durable policy differences between the parties? Also yes? We’ll have more data points by the 2024 election. If the streak continues, you can bet the current president will crow about it then. Read the [whole thing](. Bonus Politics Reading: Maybe Kamala [Harris isn’t as bad at politics]( as people say she is. — Jonathan Bernstein Toward Better Pandemic Management One problem Trump had with pandemic-era economic management was that ending lockdowns alone didn’t cause much of a rebound in growth. It turns out people don’t really want to go about their business in the middle of a raging outbreak. For example, see the U.K. right now. Brits haven’t exactly embraced “Freedom Day” on account of not wanting to catch the delta variant. Go figure. Lionel Laurent and Marcus Ashworth warn some of [these cautious consumer behaviors could outlast the pandemic](, if and when it ever ends. People chased from cities might never return, for example.  Then again, maybe more widespread vaccination could loosen us up. Americans don’t avoid [swimming]( pools because of polio anymore, and that’s because vaccines eradicated polio in the U.S. They help. Just ask Senator Lindsey Graham, whose [breakthrough]( Covid case is very mild because he was vaccinated. Bloomberg Opinion has written about various carrots and sticks we could use to convince vaccine holdouts. Max Nisen proposes one carrot could be employers [making health insurance cheaper for the vaccinated](. It’s kinder, gentler and possibly more legal than using the stick of raising insurance costs for the unvaccinated. Further Pandemic Reading: The world has [vastly undercounted Covid deaths](. — Clara Ferreira Marques Diplomacy Is Hard, You Guys Meanwhile in Afghanistan, the Taliban is busy making it 2001 again as the U.S. withdraws its forces. This is a problem for the U.S., obviously. But a close look at an atlas reveals Afghanistan has many neighbors nearer to it geographically than the U.S. And they stand to lose from a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, too. Maybe more, even. Bloomberg’s editorial board writes these countries, along with regional powers China, India and Russia, have a duty to [work with the U.S. to help keep the Taliban under control](. President Joe Biden took office with ambitions to create grand coalitions to reverse the rot of democracy around the world. It’s a worthy goal: South Africa’s recent collapse into [chaos will be followed soon enough by Brazil and India](, warns Pankaj Mishra. Those three countries share not only deep inequality but also terrible governance and demagoguery.  But Afghanistan and all the other little fires [everywhere]( have forced Biden to [abandon his designs in favor of smaller ad hoc groups](, writes Hal Brands. They will at least get stuff done more quickly, while maybe paving the way for bigger alliances later. You know, when things calm down. Bonus Diplomacy Reading: Predictably, Brexit has led to [many diplomatic crises for Boris Johnson’s government](. — Max Hastings Telltale Charts If you want to know where stocks are headed, [look at profit-margin forecasts](, writes Gina Martin Adams. With input prices high, these don’t look good for a lot of industries. Further Reading A new report on the Archegos debacle shows [Credit Suisse made many classic, predictable mistakes](. — Tim O’Brien and Chris Hughes China’s big-tech [regulatory crackdown may make the country untouchable]( for many investors. — Mohamed El-Erian The only way to make flying truly less carbon-intensive is [just to fly less often](. — David Fickling Everything you need to know [about ticks and Lyme disease](. — Sam Fazeli Here’s how to manage your money [after you’ve maxed out your retirement contribution]( for the year. — Erin Lowry We are on the [brink of a very weird future](, for better or worse. — Tyler Cowen ICYMI Seventy percent of Americans have [gotten at least one Covid vaccine dose](. Tokyo has somehow [kept Covid mostly contained]( in the Olympics. Melinda and Bill [Gates are officially divorced](. Kickers [Newborn animals dream of the world]( before they are born. Scientists [turned water into metal](. (h/t Ellen Kominers for the first two kickers) A quantum computer [designed a time crystal](. Thanos could not be reached for comment. [Upside-down-flying goose]( is just “showing off,” experts say. Notes: Please send time crystals and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more](. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. 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