Will Republicans give Jan. 6 the brush-off treatment?

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( Get Jonathan Bernstein’s newsletter every morning in your inbox. [Click here to subscribe](. Whether Congress will set up a serious independent commission to report on the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol is going to come down to one person: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Here’s where the negotiations stand. Any congressionally ordered commission has to be created by ordinary legislation. So far, the action has been in the House of Representatives, where bargaining at the committee level [yielded a compromise](. As Greg Sargent [describes it]( in the Washington Post, Republicans won an equal partisan balance and the right to approve subpoenas. Democrats beat back Republican efforts to add extraneous investigations of Black Lives Matter and other irrelevant topics to the scope of the effort, and the commission chair — chosen by Democrats — will have significant powers to direct the substance of what the commission studies. Many House Republicans will vote against the bill when it’s considered this week; after all, many House Republicans seem to feel that [nothing important happened]( on Jan. 6, so why should they vote to investigate it? But with unanimous backing from Democrats expected, House Republican votes won’t be needed. The Senate, where the bill can be filibustered, is another matter. Assuming Democrats all support the bill, they will need support from 10 Republicans to defeat the filibuster. But there are significant differences between Republicans in the two chambers; only a handful of Senate Republicans voted to overturn the election of President Joe Biden after Congress returned to business on the evening of Jan. 6, while a majority of House Republicans did so. And of course just last week, House Republicans dumped their conference chair, Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming, because she insists on speaking up for democracy and against former President Donald Trump’s attempts to destroy it. If all the Republican Senators who either voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial or spoke harshly against his actions in trying to subvert the election support the bill to set up the commission, they will supply more than the 10 votes needed to reach 60. The influence of party leaders in Congress is often overstated. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and McConnell himself are severely constrained by what their rank-and-file members support. Pelosi and McConnell, in particular, have stayed in their positions for so long precisely because they are good at understanding what their caucuses will and won’t accept. But the vote on setting up the Jan. 6 commission will be one in which McConnell himself may well be the 60th vote in the Senate. Even if that’s not the case, a “yes” vote from McConnell would provide cover in a way that votes from, say, Senator Mitt Romney of Utah or Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska can’t. That’s not all. If the commission passes in its current form, McConnell and McCarthy will be responsible for choosing the Republican-appointed commissioners. McCarthy will no doubt support those who would back Trump and try to derail any serious investigation. It’s anyone’s guess what McConnell would want, and how hard he’ll fight. Opposing the majority of his party is an uncomfortable position for a party leader, but this is an unusual time for the Republican Party. McConnell has somehow managed to survive being an occasionally harsh critic of Trump, even on matters that Trump cares about, without losing his leadership position. McConnell’s [impeachment speech]( was impressive. We’ll see if he backs it up with his vote and his actions now. 1. Katherine Clayton at the Monkey Cage finds [some electoral risks to Republicans]( in their internal wrangling. I’m skeptical that many voters will be aware of intraparty fights, but perhaps there’s something to it. 2. Geoffrey Skelley on the likely effects of [Republican efforts to make voting harder](. 3. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Clara Ferreira Marques on [requiring vaccinations](. 4. Kevin Drum argues that the [U.S. didn’t do any worse than Europe]( on the pandemic. Maybe. 5. Perry Bacon Jr. on [Republican identity politics](. The only leverage anti-Trump Republicans have involves helping Democrats win, either directly (as Bacon recommends) or indirectly, through a third-party strategy designed to harm Trumpy Republicans. If they aren’t willing to do that, it’s hard to see how they can be relevant. 6. And Brian Beutler on [his experience of the virus]( — including some of the key policy questions that it raises. One of the many disadvantages of having Trump as president during the pandemic is that the public discussion has been focused on deaths only, and not the non-fatal damage that so many others have sustained (even while, of course, many people had mild symptoms or none at all). Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. [Click here to subscribe](. Also subscribe to [Bloomberg All Access]( and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. Paid Post The power of PayPal online, now in person. PayPal gives your business a way to accept touch-free, in-person payments. Generate your QR code from the app, then display it on your device or print it out. No new equipment required. [Download the app.]( Customer must have PayPal account and app to pay. PayPal  Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Early Returns newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022