What a Senate majority means for Democrats

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( Get Jonathan Bernstein’s newsletter every morning in your inbox. [Click here to subscribe](. The losing Republicans have not conceded yet, but the count is clear — while both Georgia Senate runoff elections were close, Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff will have won once all the votes are counted. That means a 50-50 Senate with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris breaking ties and Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer as majority leader. Both Republicans were [favored]( after President-elect Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in November. After all, the last two times this happened — in 1992 and 2008 — Democratic candidates lost badly in Georgia Senate runoffs after a Democrat won the presidency. What changed? My sense — and of course we’re still in the guesswork phase — is mainly two things. The first is Trump. It’s a cliche to say that he gets away with things that others don’t, but it’s still not true. Trump’s appalling behavior after Nov. 3 had real consequences. While most outgoing presidents — even those who’ve been defeated — become more popular as they leave, Trump’s [approval ratings]( have actually fallen some. If he had been around 46% approval instead of 42%, these contests might’ve gone the other way. And that’s before we get to the other ways he made life impossible for Georgia Republicans: his war on the state’s Republican governor and secretary of state, his impossible-to-follow flip-flops on the relief and stimulus bill, and his insistence on keeping all the attention on himself no matter what. The shorthand for the other factor is Stacey Abrams, the former Georgia gubernatorial candidate. But as strong as her record is for organizing she’s only a stand-in, as Nadia E. Brown and Bry Reed [explained]( in the Monkey Cage last month, for years of grassroots efforts by many people, especially Black women, across Georgia. Turnout was strong throughout the state on Tuesday, but it was especially strong for Democrats and [among Black voters](. Some of that was Trump, and some of it was demographic change, but a large part of it was individual citizens getting organized. We can also step back and reassess the 2020 election cycle, which is now complete. It looks a lot better for Democrats than it did at first. Republicans still picked up 11 or 12 net seats in the House, enough to narrow the Democratic majority considerably. But Democrats won the White House solidly, and have now picked up three net Senate seats and the (slimmest possible) majority. That’s probably still a bit shy of what they had hoped for on Election Day in November, but certainly a result they would’ve gladly accepted a year ago. Republicans did well in state legislative races, but Democrats did [quite well in local politics]( in 2020. The most important immediate effect is that Biden will be able to fill his cabinet and his administration without major obstacles and the Senate will consider and confirm most of the judges he nominates. We won’t know to what extent Republicans would’ve blocked judicial and executive-branch nominations had Mitch McConnell remained the majority leader, but all the evidence suggests they wouldn’t have held back. Now Biden’s nominees will only be subject to the kind of foot-dragging that Democrats used against Trump’s picks, not full-out blockades. Legislation will be a more complicated story. As long as the filibuster survives — and that seems more likely than not — many Democratic priorities will need 60 votes in the Senate. We’ll be hearing a lot about reconciliation, the budget procedure that allows (some) things to pass with a simple majority. But even when 50 votes (plus the vice president) are enough, moderate Democrats beginning with West Virginia’s Joe Manchin will have the key swing votes, along with any moderate Republicans (such as Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski) who might be willing to cut deals in some policy areas. Democrats are certainly happy to have the majority, but it’s a fragile one. And don’t forget that we’re still in the midst of a pandemic that may make it even harder than usual to produce all 50 Democrats on the Senate floor or in committee chambers for votes. There’s plenty of time to assess all of that in more detail. For now, Democrats can celebrate — and Republicans may want to think about what went wrong and what they might do differently in the future. Meanwhile, although Senator Kelly Loeffler’s defeat means there will be one fewer woman in the 117th Senate, Warnock will be only the [11th Black senator]( in the history of the republic, while Ossoff, at 33, will add some badly needed age diversity. And with David Perdue’s defeat, we’ll have one fewer dynastic senator as well. So if nothing else, these runoffs were good for Senate diversity, and that’s something everyone can celebrate. 1. Michele L. Swers at the Monkey Cage on [Republican women in the new Congress](. 2. Matt Grossmann talks with Brendan Nyhan on [the state of U.S. democracy](. 3. Kevin Kosar on a [better path ahead for Congress](. 4. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Noah Smith on [inflation](. 5. Keith E. Whittington on [counting the electoral votes in Congress](. 6. Perry Bacon Jr. on [Georgia’s electoral future](. 7. And several more election-law experts on the process used to [count electoral votes](. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. [Click here to subscribe](. Also subscribe to [Bloomberg All Access]( and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. 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