Surprise! Iran’s a problem again

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a Gulf oil tanker of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Don’t sleep on the [risk of an Iranian blowup](. - Do [theft-proof America’s election system](. - Don’t [monkey with vaccine dosages](. - Do [sell more vaccine bonds](. Iran Not So Far Away I’m reading Cixin Liu’s “Supernova Era,” about an apocalypse in which all the adults die, for some light entertainment. At the very start of the book, just moments before a supernova makes the planet go haywire, a kid says, “No one knows what the future holds. It’s unpredictable. Anything could happen.”  That truism comes to mind when thinking about all the trouble Iran’s been making lately, from boosting uranium enrichment to snagging a South Korean tanker. Most of us are rightly worried about the pandemic and the death of American democracy. But it’s always the supernova nobody sees coming that gets you first. Iran could be that supernova. Of course, that’s what we thought a year ago, when a U.S. drone strike killed Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani. Everybody worried his death would trigger war with Iran. Instead, Covid-19 soon became our surprise catastrophe. Iran has threatened a bunch of retaliation since then but [can’t push things too far,]( writes Bobby Ghosh, lest it spoil its chances of getting a new nuclear deal from President-elect Joe Biden.      At the same time, James Stavridis writes, Tehran feels [compelled to ratchet up the rhetoric and aggression](, not only to rile up voters for its own elections later this year, but also to signal to Biden that it won’t be pushed around. Uniting with the rest of the world against Iran can counter this, James writes. And [Biden could strike a quick, interim deal]( without giving up too much, Dennis Ross writes, trading limited sanctions relief for limited Iranian concessions. But while we wait for that, we can’t ignore the chances of an accident going tragically supernova. Further Biden Diplomacy Reading: Biden should reverse the trend of [political cronies getting ambassadorships](. — Bloomberg’s editorial board Coup Watch: Closing the Barn Door President Donald Trump today [declared]( Vice President Mike Pence could simply reject electoral votes at tomorrow’s ceremonial vote-countin’ jamboree in Congress. As we’ve [mentioned](, Trump is predictably wrong about this. But it ratchets up the tension on what was already going to be a dramatic day. And if Republicans had control of the House right now, then tomorrow would bring not just drama but also an overturned election. This is not how a healthy democracy should function, writes Noah Feldman. Our electoral system provides [too many opportunities for election theft]( and should be overhauled right away. And though tomorrow’s Republican challenge of Biden’s win will fail, Ramesh Ponnuru writes it still plants the seeds for worse and [more effective assaults on democracy]( in the future. Further Politics Reading: Here’s [how to think about the outcome]( of the Georgia runoff election. — Jonathan Bernstein Vaccination Consternation Last year, the fight against Covid-19 was [a hammer and a dance](. Now it’s a flat-out race. Humans are trying to inoculate other humans as quickly as possible, before an out-of-control virus mutates beyond the reach of vaccines. Some humans have even raised the possibility of scrapping carefully researched dosage regimes just to get shots in arms. Sam Fazeli warns [this could do more harm than good](. We haven’t researched how cutting doses or mixing different brands of vaccine will work, and there’s a risk we could help the virus develop immunity to our vaccines.   A better approach might be to [not have so many government rules around vaccinations](, writes Virginia Postrel, from finicky staffing requirements to fines for jabbing the wrong people. At some point, hopefully, we’ll solve these problems and vaccinate our way to herd immunity. But we’ll still need vaccine research, which tends to run out of cash when there’s no emergency. The answer to this, Aaron Brown writes, is [vaccine bonds, which provide regular financing for the studies]( we’ll need to fight the next pandemic while it’s still just a gleam in a bat’s eye. Further Coronavirus Reading: [Mutant strains deepen the moral dilemma]( for governments trying to contain Covid. — Tyler Cowen Telltale Charts The [Covid variant is making markets doubt]( their belief everything will get back to normal soon, writes John Authers. At least Noah Smith offers us one less thing to worry about: There [really is no secret hidden inflation]( in the U.S. Further Reading Biden’s [SEC chief should put investors first]( and treat day trading like vaping. — Arthur Levitt Jr. The NYSE may have reversed course on delisting Chinese stocks, but all the back-and-forth proves [Chinese companies should ditch New York]( anyway. — Shuli Ren Turns out Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett and Jamie Dimon [couldn’t fix health care](. — Tara Lachapelle and Tae Kim If Apple’s going to build a car, then [Canada’s Magna is a likely partner](. — Chris Bryant Brexit is already bringing [epochal changes to the City of London](, and not in a good way. — Elisa Martinuzzi Saudi Arabia’s output cut may [not be the gift to American frackers]( it seems. — Liam Denning Catching up on the [big securities fraud stories]( of 2020. — Matt Levine ICYMI The South is America’s [worst Covid hot spot](. BlackRock’s [staying in New York](. Twenty-year [mortgages are going for 0%]( in Denmark. Kickers Our pandemic response [doesn’t bode well for our climate response](. (h/t Sarah Green Carmichael) The galaxy is probably [full of dead civilizations](. Massive “[Superhenge” found buried]( just two miles from Stonehenge. A brief [history of peanut butter](. Note: Please send peanut butter and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](.  Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more](. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. 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