Maybe we’re getting both herd immunity and lockdowns wrong

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a What If comic of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Herd [immunity is still a puzzle](, and [targeted lockdowns work](. What if we [try both](? - What if we [don’t need more stimulus](? - What if we don’t need to [panic about pandemic voting](? - What if the [Google antitrust case isn't good](? To Herd or Not to Herd Maybe it’s a vestige of our ancestral experience of constantly being at risk of ingestion by predators, but humans aren’t always great at nuance. Either the lion is about to eat you or it isn’t. Either that stranger is an enemy or she isn’t. Either we fight a pandemic by locking everybody away for 18 months or we let it run wild. Modern humans do best when we realize multiple things can be true at once, when we see both a [duck and a rabbit]( in the same optical illusion. So it may be with the coronavirus pandemic. Sometimes it seems humanity is divided into two camps on this issue: Herders and Lockdowners. Herders (at least according to the stereotype) want the virus to run through the population until we achieve enough herd immunity that the disease has nowhere else to go. One huge problem with this idea, Justin Fox writes, is that [nobody yet knows exactly how much of a population must be infected](, and how many unthinkable thousands must die, before herd immunity is reached. Models spit out wildly different outcomes based on small input tweaks, and the population and the disease are changing too quickly to make models truly useful anyway. Lockdowners, according to their stereotype, want everybody to huddle in their homes until there’s a vaccine or the virus runs out of people to infect, crushing the economy and everyone’s sanity in the process. But almost nobody is really advocating for this anymore. And it is clear that targeted, [time-limited lockdowns can actually do a lot of good]( when a virus is out of control, writes Mark Buchanan. We can’t dismiss them as pandemic-fighting tools just because we’re sick of them. Ultimately, what will probably work best is [a little from every policy prescription on the menu](, writes Faye Flam. Herd immunity isn’t a bad thing to shoot for, but we should also wear masks and not spit on each other in enclosed places and maybe sometimes lock stuff down when all else fails. It’s thanks to such complex solutions that we no longer fear being eaten by lions on the daily. Paid Post Nowadays, you just can't afford to risk privacy and security while working from home. Keep your meetings safe from "conference bombers" on Webex. From heads of state, to governments, to schools, to hospitals, Webex is the secure choice for video conferencing and collaboration. Visit [( to get it free. Cisco Webex To Stimulate or Not to Stimulate Watching stimulus negotiations is a Sisyphean task: Every day we find that stupid rock at the bottom of the stupid hill again. The news today, like every day for the past five eternities, is that Nancy Pelosi and the White House are [this close]( to a deal, honest, which Senate Republicans may or may not (spoiler: not) pass sometime before Inauguration Day. It’s still possible [a deal could accidentally happen](, writes Jonathan Bernstein, because all parties involved have a stake in at least keeping up the appearance of talks. And if you keep going to the barbershop, you may get your hair cut. It has long been this newsletter’s position that the economy needs all the help it can get, especially with the pandemic flaring anew in much of the U.S., with it not even being winter yet. But a couple of recent data points suggest the situation may not be as dire as it seems. For one thing, retail sales exploded in September, which Tim Duy chalks up to [a soaring pandemic savings rate](, bolstered by earlier fiscal stimulus. Leftover nest eggs may be enough to carry consumers through the rest of the pandemic.  It’s also [a good sign that people are flying again](, despite a new surge in the virus, writes Conor Sen. Though traffic is still well below pre-pandemic levels, it now seems possible the industry can avoid repeating the spring’s shutdown. To Panic or Not to Panic Another long-held position of this newsletter is that everybody should be in a panic about the ability of Americans to vote and have their vote counted, what with the pandemic and hordes of militias threatening to descend on polling places and all. But [maybe we should chill out about the election a bit](, suggests Tim O’Brien. The people who run the voting booths have been doing it for a long time and have seen just about every wild thing you can imagine. They’re prepared for most emergencies. Perhaps most important, we also shouldn’t worry if it takes days or weeks to finalize the count. Telltale Charts Retailers are bracing for an [onslaught of online orders this holiday season](, but there are ways they can make it less awful for themselves, writes Sarah Halzack. One is to push curbside pickup, a service customers increasingly favor. Coronavirus [testing has become a big and unfortunately long-lasting business]( for several big health-care firms, writes Max Nisen. Further Reading The Justice Department’s antitrust case against Google is [questionably motivated and abuses antitrust law](. — Bloomberg’s editorial board Morgan Stanley’s crackdown on traders shows [Wall Street is taking WFH compliance issues]( more seriously. — Elisa Martinuzzi Don’t be fooled by the ability of [pandemic-hit businesses to raise money with junk bonds](. They could still go bankrupt. — Brian Chappatta Once the crisis is over, we’ll need to [make travel companies protect customers’ deposits](. — Chris Bryant Senator David Perdue knew exactly what he was doing when he [pretended not to know how to pronounce “Kamala](.” — Frank Wilkinson ICYMI Hospitals are again [filling up with coronavirus patients](. The AstraZeneca vaccine trial participant who died [didn’t take the vaccine](. The pandemic has made people [want to move to New York more](. Kominers’s Conundrums Hint In our [meme collision]( conundrum, each meme references one of the others — such as Admiral Ackbar riffing off the lyrics to Rick Astley's best-known song. Once you figure out which memes connect to each other, that should help you put them in order. — Scott Duke Kominers Kickers Behavioral nudges [reduce failure to appear in court](. These forklift drivers [never leave their desks](. NYC has a [new digital subway map](. Geothermal energy is [poised for a big breakout](. Note: Please send nudges and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](.  Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022