Trump keeps giving himself nasty October surprises

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us //link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/21711100.38071/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9ib3Bpbmlvbg/582c8673566a94262a8b49bdBb9b585ab This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a steepening yield curve of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - The bond market sees a [blue wave coming](. - [Trump’s experimental treatment]( may not work for all. - The [trade war really didn’t work](. - Disney investors engage in [magical thinking](. Surprise! Trump’s Still Losing An October surprise is sudden, last-minute news that alters the shape of a political race. True October surprises are surprisingly [rare](. But President Donald Trump really needs one to turn around the 2020 election. Trouble is, he keeps springing the wrong surprises. Giving himself coronavirus probably won’t help him, even if his campaign is [playing]( it as a strength. And Trump’s latest surprise — [shutting]( down stimulus negotiations and tanking the stock market — also seems unhelpful. Today brought a new [raft of polls]( suggesting last week’s debate and the whole Covid-19 thing have put Trump even further behind his rival Joe Biden in both the national vote and swing states. Trump benefited from James [Comey’s October surprise]( in 2016, and nobody should count him out this time, writes Jonathan Bernstein. But with every October day that passes, [his chances grow slimmer](, especially when he keeps sabotaging himself. Political prediction markets echo the polls, as they will do. A lesser-known prediction engine, the Treasury bond market, is making its own bet, writes Brian Chappatta, and it’s starting to [price in a blue wave that brings unified Democratic government](. How can he tell? The yield curve — or the gap between short- and long-term interest rates — is steeper than it has been since the last time a party won the White House, Senate and House, in 2016: The yield curve steepens, generally, when traders see stronger growth and inflation coming. It steepened in 2016 partly because they saw tax cuts and deregulation coming from Republicans. Now they may see stimulus coming from the Dems. Only another month of surprises until we find out. Sponsored Content by Canalyst The Madness Every earnings season, thousands of analysts spend 40% of their time manually entering identical numbers into nearly identical spreadsheets. Hundreds of funds already use [Canalyst]([’s]( 4000+ fundamental models and seamless earnings updates to [get ahead](.  Ask Your Doctor If Trump’s Covid Treatment Is Right for You Trump at least seems to be feeling better, despite having been diagnosed with Covid-19 less than a week ago. Not only is he fighting staffers to let him [get back]( into the Oval Office, but he’s also once again filling social media with [misinformation]( about the disease. This comes at an especially dangerous time, with the virus once again [surging]( around the country as colder weather approaches. What we really need, writes Bloomberg’s editorial board, is [bipartisan agreement on the pandemic’s seriousness]( and how to fight it. Though we can’t trust Trump’s doctor to report on his condition truthfully, let’s assume the president really has no symptoms. Does this mean the experimental cocktail of antibodies and drugs he’s on is a miracle cure for Covid-19? Maybe, maybe not, writes Faye Flam. Because we haven’t completed scientific tests of all these treatments, particularly not in tandem, [we don’t know if such an approach would work for everybody]( the way it may have worked for Trump. Another mystery is how Trump contracted the virus in the first place. You might think this is kind of an important thing to know, but then you must not work for the White House, which shows no interest in tracing Trump's contacts. In an interview with Michael Lewis, microbiologist Joe DeRisi explains how quick and simple it would be to [follow a genomic trail]( to find out who infected whom and where and when. You know, just in case anybody might be interested. Trade and Immigration, in Two Charts Voters will probably judge Trump on his handling of the coronavirus, but it’s also worth grading him on his 2016 promises. One huge issue for his voters was bringing manufacturing back to America and closing the trade deficit. He burned up a lot of political and economic capital on a long trade war for just this cause. The end result, notes Noah Smith: [The trade gap is at its widest in 14 years](. Trump also vowed to clamp down on immigration with a border wall and various bans, targeting Hispanic immigrants in particular. Despite all this, Noah Smith writes in a second column, [Hispanic American incomes rose faster]( than those of any other major ethnic group between 2014 and 2019. Like other immigrants before them, Hispanics are living an American dream that apparently isn’t dead yet. Telltale Charts Despite Walt Disney’s many woes, [investors still believe the company will stay profitable](, writes Tara Lachapelle. It will just have to get smaller to do so. Further Reading A steady stream of [bankers is leaving London for Europe]( in preparation for Brexit. — Elisa Martinuzzi People managing their own money were [surprisingly disciplined during the latest bear market](. — Nir Kaissar The pandemic may briefly cause [a spike in people moving for work](, but it won’t last, to the economy’s detriment. — Peter Orszag Hyliion’s founder is restricted from dumping stock, [a refreshing exception to the norm]( for SPAC-sponsored companies. — Chris Bryant Next year [won’t be a great time for a new Iran deal](. America should push for trust building first. — Karen Young Judicial “originalists” must wrestle with the fact that [their philosophy makes race and sex discrimination OK](. — Cass Sunstein ICYMI Top [Pentagon brass are under quarantine](. Chances of a [pre-election Covid vaccine]( are slipping away. Lingering Covid symptoms make it [harder for survivors to work](. Kickers Hungry flies may [solve our trash problem](. (h/t Scott Kominers) Venice may have [solved its flooding problem](. How I trained myself to [remember everything I read](. RIP, [Eddie Van Halen](. Note: Please send flies and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](.  Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access]( and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. 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