The election outlook is (mostly) clear

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us //link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/21516809.52668/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9ib3Bpbmlvbg/582c8673566a94262a8b49bdBe3119428 This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an Electoral College of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - It’s possible [Trump really]( is [losing the election](. - Europe is again [losing its battle]( with coronavirus. - OPEC keeps [losing control of the oil market](. - People are [losing their sense of financial security](. What If the Election Isn’t Such a Mystery? Democrats have spent this election season suffering PTSD from 2016, endlessly reliving the horror of polls leading them to slaughter on Election Day. But what if the polls are right this time? What if Joe Biden really does have a large and persistent lead over President Donald Trump nationally and in the swing states that undid Hillary Clinton? Certainly, less than two months from the day of reckoning, [we have a better sense of how the pandemic and economy]( are affecting the race, writes Jonathan Bernstein. The former issue is certainly no bueno for Trump, and the latter is a wash at best. He has better polling on the economy than Biden, but the economy is in terrible shape. And Trump’s polling is dismal even on his pet “[law and order](” issue. By now these effects are largely baked into the polling numbers, which consistently favor Biden. Another glaring sign of trouble for Trump: The Democratic governors of the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin [are far more popular than he is](, thanks mainly to their handling of the coronavirus, writes Francis Wilkinson. Still, one huge variable should keep Democrats from getting the least bit comfortable: voting in a pandemic. There’s good reason to think this election will be far messier than usual, with final results not known for weeks. The stock market may seem blissfully unaware of all problems foreign and domestic, but Jared Dillian writes there are signs beneath the hood that [traders are starting to hedge against a very ugly election outcome](. Further Election Reading: The press [coddles Biden too much](. — Ramesh Ponnuru Sponsored Content by Cisco Webex The work you do matters--no matter where you do it. That's why Webex® provides simple and reliable video communication tools that allow you and your team to connect and collaborate securely. That way, you can take care of business anywhere you are. Webex provides simple and reliable video communication tools that allow you and your team to connect and collaborate securely. When you cannot afford to have your video conference "bombed", trust Webex. Between working remotely and working securely, there's Webex. When it comes to remote work/work from home and you need to get stuff done and security matters, there's Webex. From heads of state, to governments, to schools, to hospitals/medical providers, to the most trusted brands--Webex is the choice for secure video conferencing and collaboration. Oh and Webex does virtual happy hours and weddings too! #LifeOnWebex If you can imagine it, we will build the bridge to get you there.  How Not to Manage a Coronavirus, European Edition Trump’s handling of the coronavirus has been very bad, but as we have noted before, he isn’t alone in his mismanagement. Even Europe — which suffered terribly early in the pandemic and seemed to have learned hard lessons — is backsliding, writes Lionel Laurent. Cases in France and Spain are even outpacing those in the U.S.: Leaders in both countries are reluctant to return to wide lockdowns, but with [woefully inadequate testing and tracing capacity](, they may have no choice, Lionel writes. Covid-19 is at least under slightly better control in New York City, which may help explain why JPMorgan Chase last week told some traders to return to the office. Emily Oster suggests this is a sign businesses are [starting to realize we are in for a long haul]( with this disease, that no magic vaccine will arrive next month to end it all. Some would rather go ahead and spend the money needed to make a return to semi-normalcy safer than hunker down indefinitely. Of course, semi-normalcy is risky; just days after telling traders to return, JPMorgan [sent some home]( after one came down with the coronavirus. Further Pandemic-Adjustment Reading: - [Black Friday will be especially weird]( these year. Here are some tips for retailers to manage it. — Sarah Halzack - A new era of flexible work arrangements [should be WeWork’s time to shine](. But some other company may have to cash in on it. — Conor Sen - Trump [hasn’t corrupted the vaccine-approval]( process just yet. — Jonathan Bernstein OPEC Wasn’t Made for These Times Sixty years ago this week, four Middle Eastern countries and Venezuela formed OPEC. They soon realized they had created an Infinity Gauntlet with which they could snap their fingers and make half the world’s economies disappear. Those were the good old days. Our imaginations may have been forever scarred by OPEC’s early power, but [the cartel has been pretty toothless for a long time](, writes Ellen Wald, particularly with the rise of U.S. shale oil production. The rapid cheapening of renewable-energy sources hasn’t helped. Even forming an “OPEC+” with Russia and other non-OPEC producers hasn’t been enough to tame the oil market. OPEC can perhaps take some comfort in the fact that [the world is a little less amenable to renewable energy]( at the moment, thanks to the growing U.S.-China rift. As Meghan O’Sullivan writes, the trade war has pushed China to drop its green-energy push in favor of stimulus at any cost. And the end of global cooperation makes it harder to strike climate pacts. It’s not clear how much this dynamic would repair itself with Biden in the White House. Telltale Charts All over the world, people feel [unprepared for another financial calamity](, writes Ben Schott. Ark Investment Management’s bets that [tech innovation will flower in the pandemic]( keep paying off, writes Matthew Winkler. Further Reading Trump’s approach to Russia is weak, so it [falls to Europe to stand up]( to what it’s doing in Belarus. — Bloomberg’s editorial board The hero of “Hotel Rwanda” has [been labeled a terrorist]( by Rwanda’s dictator. — Bobby Ghosh New Japanese premier Yoshihide Suga [takes over at a good time](, with growth on the upswing. — Anjani Trivedi The Fed wants to spark inflation, but [keeping zombie companies alive seems deflationary](. — John Authers ICYMI The WTO ruled Trump’s [China tariffs violate trade rules](. Carnival’s [Ruby Princess spread coronavirus]( around the world. It’s been a [bad year for Ray Dalio](. Kominers’s Condundrums Hint If you’re still stuck trying to make connections in our [Zoom room Conundrum](, maybe think about how many different numbers of people the participants can know. Would the problem get easier if you knew for sure that someone in the room knows everybody? Or perhaps try starting with a smaller example: What if there are only five people in the class? — Scott Duke Kominers Kickers The [universe may be too thin](. (h/t Ellen Kominers) Vinyl records are [once again outselling CDs](. Reindeer herders find a [20,000-year-old frozen cave bear](. (h/t Scott Kominers for the past two kickers) Disgusting Food Museum gets [disgusting drink exhibit](. (h/t Mike Smedley) Note: Please send vinyl and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](.  Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access]( and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. 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