This bond market doomsayer keeps being right

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us //link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/21210040.45676/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9ib3Bpbmlvbg/582c8673566a94262a8b49bdB4d7184a6 This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a zombie corporation of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Super-low interest [rates send an ominous message](. - You just [can’t rush vaccines](. - Suburbs should [be more city-like]( to attract people fleeing cities. - Americans sure are [buying a lot of pools and RVs](. Lacy Hunt, chief economist at Hoisington Investment Management. Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg The Bond Market Is Still Warning Us Eleven million years ago, in early March, we [talked]( about Hoisington Investment Management, a Texas firm that has made one bet for roughly the past 20 years: that the 30-year Treasury yield will fall. It’s always been right, and it was even righter back in March, when that rate was plunging as the pandemic’s economic effects dawned on everybody. It has since stabilized, but around very low levels. Unfortunately, Hoisington sees it falling further still. The firm’s chief economist, Lacy Hunt, tells Brian Chappatta the [disinflation gripping the economy for decades is still very much]( at work. Some people have lately embraced the idea that a torrent of Fed cash will spark inflation. But then people have been embracing that idea for, oh, about 20 years. Central-bank cash orgies are now the norm in the developed world, and yet they keep failing to spark inflation. Hunt suggests they are in fact deflationary, keeping zombie borrowers alive and obscuring the places capital can be put to its most productive use. Sure, we all enjoy low interest rates. They help us buy houses and [fractions]( of stocks. Major indexes are around record highs despite a pandemic and near-depression, and [Americans are wildly optimistic about their investment]( returns, writes Ben Schott: And they may not be wrong, at least not about the next 12 months. But the world Hunt describes, of interest rates being sucked into a morass of perpetually sinking prices, is not one that keeps investors happy for too long. Vaccines Need Time It can be hard for lay people, including presidents of major global powers, to understand science. If you’re in the middle of a pandemic and a drugmaker says it has cooked up a vaccine, your natural inclination may be to ask how quickly you can get it jabbed into your arm. It’s frustrating to hear scientists say it will probably take many months. Vladimir Putin, famous and influential lay person, tore up that timeline this week by announcing Russia already had a vaccine and was ready to commence jabbing. This, Clara Ferreira Marques writes, was not so much due to Putin’s concern for all of humanity as it was due to [Putin’s concern for one very specific human](: Vladimir Putin. His prestige is sinking at home and around the world, and claiming to win the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine race is meant to boost it. But there’s a good reason we don’t want to skip the long, tedious testing vaccines need, writes Faye Flam. We must ensure they’re not only effective but also super-safe, and that takes many months. A vaccine that has cleared these hurdles will be much more attractive to young people, and [that’s who you really want taking vaccines first](, Faye writes. They’re the ones relentlessly mingling with one another, doing body shots or whatever the youngs do these days (I am old). In fact, young people are spreading Covid-19 all over the U.S. lately. It’s also bad in Europe, which dealt relatively well with the pandemic at first. But for some reason, [nightclubs are now open in Italy and elsewhere](, writes Ferdinando Giugliano, even as schools and other perhaps more-essential businesses are closed. These priorities seem a tad out of whack. You can lead lay people to science, but you cannot make them stop doing body shots. Further Pandemic Reading: Discussions about school reopening too often [omit important numbers]( we’ll need to judge its safety. — Cass Sunstein That ’70s Suburb Won’t Cut It Anymore As you’ve probably heard or experienced, the coronavirus is chasing people out of cities and into the suburbs. There are just fewer people to avoid out here in Minivan Land, and you can swap a cramped apartment for a relatively massive house with a lawn. But not all suburbs are exactly the same, despite how they’re portrayed in popular media. Suburbs that conform to the stereotype — homogeneous, sprawling, boring — are [less likely to attract former city dwellers]( and their tax dollars, writes Noah Smith. More attractive are suburbs that boast diversity, density and excitement. Kinda like cities, in other words. Telltale Charts From RVs and pools to Swiffers and Frosted Flakes, here’s [all the stuff that sells well in a pandemic](, compiled by Brooke Sutherland and Sarah Halzack. FedEx and UPS were swamped early in the pandemic, when everybody suddenly started getting stuff shipped at once. But their fortunes started improving when [they realized they could charge more]( for schlepping your tortillas and diapers, writes Brooke Sutherland. Further Reading Forcing [Google and Facebook to subsidize news](, as Australia wants to do, won’t help publishers. — Bloomberg’s editorial board [Messing with the Postal Service]( will backfire on President Donald Trump. — Jonathan Bernstein The pandemic and geopolitical tensions are causing [China’s middle class to spend less]( on travel and imports. — Shuli Ren China’s [banks must bend to sanctions in Hong Kong]( because the dollar is just too powerful to ignore. — Nisha Gopalan Here’s who [wins and loses in the Israel-UAE peace]( deal. — Hussein Ibish ICYMI A jump in retail sales [masks lingering economic pain](. [Forced isolation may be the only way]( to stop a Covid-19 resurgence. Amazon may [move some workers out of Seattle](. Kickers A brief history of [astronaut ice cream](. (h/t Ellen Kominers) Honeybees [sure have weird tongues](. (h/t Alistair Lowe) Mississippi’s new state flag will [sadly not include a mosquito](. (h/t Mike Smedley) [Rewatching “Apocalypse Now](,” which just turned 41. Note: Please send ice cream and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com](  Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022