Stocks manage to be irrationally exuberant in a pandemic

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us //link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/20297675.41695/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9ib3Bpbmlvbg/582c8673566a94262a8b49bdB2dd4888b This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a stock index of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Irrational [exuberance is back](. - Kids need a [shorter summer vacation](. - OPEC’s [petro-states are a risk]( for oil. - Congressional [oversight hangs in the balance](. Everything looks better from inside a bubble. Photographer: China Photos/Getty Images AsiaPac Markets in Denial A disquieting feature of this pandemic has been the optics of the stock market soaring while people die and lose their jobs in unthinkable numbers. To be fair to the stock market, it’s not meant to be a barometer of the economy or public health. But it appears to be flirting with danger, and not just of the bad karma variety. Clive Crook isn’t waiting around to find out: He has [sold all of his stocks and gone completely into cash](, he writes. This isn’t just some half-cocked punt. Clive lists all the risks stocks seem to be ignoring, including big gaps in the government’s monetary and fiscal policy responses, even wider holes in the pandemic-fighting campaign and the fact that stocks weren’t exactly cheap going into this whole disaster. One big risk we may not fully grasp yet is the housing market. Tim O’Brien notes depression-level unemployment rates could [crush demand for housing and hinder payments](, with cascading effects. Remember how housing blew up the economy 12 years ago? The economy’s returning the favor now, in what could be the start of a vicious cycle. The bond market, too, may be wandering blithely through a minefield. Interest rates for most borrowers have fallen sharply from their pandemic highs, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s promise to be the lender of last resort for just about everybody. But Brian Chappatta notes [the Fed hasn’t really bought any bonds yet](; its program has been a placebo so far. It started buying bond ETFs today. More-aggressive intervention would mean things have gone very wrong. Markets seemed to [consider]( darker outcomes today. We’ll see if it sticks. We Do Need More Education Assuming you’re as good with 21st-century math-teaching techniques as I am — which is to say, not at all — your kids are probably not learning as much under lockdown as they could be. In fact, despite heroic efforts of educators and parents across the country, kids everywhere are having suboptimal learning experiences even under the best of circumstances. And summer vacation is just weeks away, promising to set kids many more months behind schedule, notes Bloomberg's editorial board. It’s time to consider [drastically shortening summer vacation]( to give kids extra time to learn, either remotely or physically where it’s safe. Kids with limited access to technology or the Internet, or without the luxury of stay-at-home parents to provide even incompetent math instruction, are at greater risk of falling behind. Now state budgets are being slashed everywhere in the recession, [which will especially hurt poor kids](, warns Andrea Gabor. This happened after the financial crisis, and we can’t let it happen again. Petro-States on the Edge Speaking of blissfully oblivious stocks, check out Saudi Aramco’s: You’d think a stock chart of the world’s biggest oil company would plainly display the effects of an oil-price war and a demand-crushing pandemic. But [Saudi Aramco is a rare and special butterfly](, whose stock has been allowed only limited interaction with the dangerous outside world, notes Liam Denning. The company didn’t even bother to have an earnings call today, if that tells you anything. But Aramco’s placidity belies turmoil just beneath the surface in Saudi Arabia. For that country, persistently low oil prices are nothing less than an existential crisis. And it’s not alone among OPEC nations; [Nigeria is another example of a petro-state being dragged]( into dangerous waters by the oil-price crash, writes Liam Denning. It’s a risk for the whole oil market. Disorder in the Court Two bits of legal news say a lot about the current state of America. In the first, a socially distanced U.S. Supreme Court heard [arguments]( today about whether President Donald Trump could be forced to turn over financial records to either Congress or the Manhattan district attorney. Trump’s re-election may be affected here, but Noah Feldman writes the case isn’t really about him. It’s about [whether Congress still has the power of oversight](, which past Supreme Courts have often upheld. To do away with it would be a radical reordering of our political system. In a second, somewhat more hilarious, case, Elon Musk sued California’s Alameda County to reopen Tesla Inc.’s plant there. Rather than wait for the wheels of justice to turn, Musk went ahead and opened the plant and defied police to [arrest]( him. This may make him seem like a new Rosa Parks (or [Bro-sa Parks](, if you prefer). But he’s no civil-rights activist, writes Noah Feldman. He’s [simply endangering workers to make money](. Telltale Charts An Uber Technologies Inc. purchase of Grubhub Inc. would form an [American food-delivery juggernaut](, writes Tae Kim. [Pimco’s remarkable cost discipline]( makes it a player in the money-management industry consolidation to come, writes Mark Gilbert. Further Reading [Y2K preparations have much in common with pandemic-fighting](, though faith in government is significantly lower. — Matt Chapman The [plasma of recovered Covid-19 patients can treat more](, but there’s not enough to go around. — Scott Duke Kominers Revenge shoppers are out in force in Paris, but [the City of Light is still only half-lit](. — Lionel Laurent We should [pull for Florida’s looser pandemic approach]( to succeed. — Joe Nocera The pandemic should accelerate [corporate culture’s rejection of outrageous CEO pay](. — Clara Ferreira Marques [Automatic voter registration is spreading]( quickly, in some rare good news for democracy. — Jonathan Bernstein [Endangered species need tourist dollars](, which have evaporated in the pandemic. — Adam Minter ICYMI House Democrats introduced a new [$3 trillion stimulus bill](. Exercising and eating right [won’t prevent burnout](. Twitter will [let employees work at home]( forever. Kominers’s Conundrum Hint In this week’s [poker puzzle](, even though Daffy goes first, he might have to play a bit defensively: If he goes straight for a royal flush, then Donald can respond by doing the same. — Scott Kominers Kickers Eleven-year-old skateboarder lands [history’s first 1080](. (h/t Scott Kominers) Strange [hollow buckyballs found]( in 80-million-year-old fossils. Why [flour is so hard to get]( these days. Getting [fired over Zoom]( is as terrible as it sounds. Note: Please send flour and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](.  Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022