[Bloomberg](
Follow Us //link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/20183587.51691/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9ib3Bpbmlvbg/582c8673566a94262a8b49bdB3a97bde2
This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a Childrenâs Treasury of Bloomberg Opinionâs opinions. [Sign up here](.
Todayâs Agenda
- Weâre still [nowhere near ready]( to reopen the country.
- Big companies were [invited to take small-company relief money](.
- Forcing meat plants to [reopen too soon will backfire](.
- Air travelâs collapse [brings peak oil demand nearer](.
We're all subject to forces beyond our control.
Photographer: Cindy Ord/Getty Images North America
Donât Read This Before Bed
These days one of the worst things you can do is check the news right before bed, because youâre going to see some stuff that makes you not want to close your eyes again for several days. So letâs just state this up front: Donât read todayâs newsletter right before bed.
Because weâre about to take a long ride through the dark side, as a necessary counterpoint to the misplaced optimism gripping financial markets and many policy makers lately. The on-again/off-again cheerleader for this is President Donald Trump, who is as eager to get everybody back to work as we are to comply. The trouble is, in order for this to happen safely, [the country still needs far more coronavirus testing, protective equipment]( and contact-tracing capability than it currently has, Bloombergâs editorial board writes. Typically youâd expect the federal government to take the lead on this, but Trump has punted responsibility to the underfunded states, so weâre going nowhere fast.
Some of those states are already starting to end lockdowns long before even Trumpâs guidelines suggest is wise. [New outbreaks are almost a certainty](, warns Max Nisen (not that the first one even really ended; its pace of growth has just slowed down). How bad they get depends on both suppression measures and several uncontrollable factors, such as the weather and the ability of science to find treatments.
Many of us may expect a peak in cases to be followed by a decline that was just as rapid as the rise. Instead, what we see in both scientific models and real-world data from other countries is a rush to a high plateau and then a slow grind downward, writes Mark Buchanan. This suggests [it could be months before the pandemic is truly under control]( â by which time we may be due for the fall season to bring a second wave. This pattern could repeat for years.
A vaccine could finally end it, but thereâs no guarantee weâll get one, despite Operation Warp Speed, the Trump administrationâs vaccine moonshot program. In fact, we must prepare for the [possibility this disease will never truly be defeated](, warns Narayana Kocherlakota. For economic policy makers, that means their heroic short-term support for the economy wonât be nearly enough.
Trump has apparently not realized the potential downsides, or else [heâd be pushing Congress for far more help](, writes Jonathan Bernstein.
Giddy stock investors may soon realize [theyâre just in the middle of the sort of dead-cat bounce]( we saw in the Depression, writes Gary Shilling.
Maybe this is all too pessimistic; Bill Gates says we could have a [vaccine]( in just nine months. But itâs better to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Now hereâs a picture of some animals, in case you foolishly read this right before bed:
Further Reopening Reading:
- Franceâs [nationwide social experiment at reopening]( is one to watch. â Lionel Laurent
- Operation Warp Speed should [waste billions on production capacity for vaccines]( that donât work, so it will be ready for the one that does. â Max Nisen
About Those Small-Company Bailouts
On the campaign trail in 2016, Trump was always [reading]( a song called âThe Snake,â which says you canât blame a snake for biting you; itâs in its nature. Trump used it to stoke fear of immigrants, but you could also apply it to companies. For instance, weâre all justifiably [angry]( at big companies for [taking]( relief money meant for [small ones](. But [the Paycheck Protection Program was built to funnel money to some big businesses](, writes Neil Barofsky. Itâs in a companyâs nature to try to get money the law says belongs to it.
The fury inspired by the first round of bailout money going to undeserving recipients did shame some into returning it. But [plenty of companies are still hanging onto this cash]( instead of doing the right thing, writes Joe Nocera. Worse, nobody bothered to change the incentives when the second pot of cash was distributed. If we donât fix them soon, and also make sure theyâre properly aligned in the Fedâs huge Main Street lending program, then the political backlash will be fiercer than what followed the financial crisis, Neil warns.
Further Bailout Reading: Sorry, [landlords, but you should eat some of the costs]( of people not paying rent for a while. â Noah Smith
Whereâs the Beef?
As if we didnât have enough to worry about, the nationâs strategic meat reserve may be threatened by coronavirus outbreaks at processing plants. The fact that problems at just a few facilities can affect your personal bacon supply is mainly the result of massive industry consolidation, writes David Fickling. And [pandemic-proofing the industry will only further concentrate it](, as the big producers can handle the necessary costs the best.
In any event, forcing workers into infected plants could well backfire, warns Amanda Little, leading to [more widespread shutdowns and longer food shortages](. For better or worse, Trumpâs apparent [âorderâ keeping these plants open is as vague]( as everything else heâs done in this crisis, writes Noah Feldman.
Telltale Charts
The shutdown of air travel will hurry many old gas-guzzling airplanes off to that old-airplane farm upstate, [greatly reducing the worldâs demand for jet fuel](, write Liam Denning and Brooke Sutherland. Unfortunately for the oil industry, jet fuel was its one big hope for growth in oil demand.
Movie theaters are steamed Universal [released âTrolls World Tourâ straight to video](, but the industries will need each other after lockdowns end, writes Tara Lachapelle.
Further Reading
Tesla bulls [ignore such niceties as âcoronavirusâ]( and ânumbers.â â Liam Denning
Kudos to [Royal Dutch Shell for cutting its dividend](, an all-too-rare example of bowing to reality. â Chris Hughes
Some real-time indicators suggest the [job market is in even worse shape]( than the ugly official numbers say. â Michael R. Strain
Europe will collapse without a leader, but [Germany, the best candidate, doesnât want the job](. â Andreas Kluth
This may be the [death knell for Davos Man](. â Mark Gilbert
Americans are [swamping thrift stores with too much stuff](. â Adam Minter
ICYMI
Children may be as [infectious as adults](, even with mild symptoms.
West Point [grads will be in a âsafety bubbleâ]( before Trumpâs speech.
How [Exxon Mobil was humbled](.
Kickers
What [recipe is your state searching for]( the most in quarantine? (h/t Scott Kominers)
Why [carbon emissions arenât falling more]( during lockdowns.
The [science behind hiccups](.
You need to [order your Motherâs Day gifts]( now. Here are [some ideas](.
Note: Please send recipes and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.
[Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](.
Â
Before itâs here, itâs on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals canât find anywhere else. [Learn more](.
Â
You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter.
[Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us](
Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022