Impatient states take huge risks lifting lockdowns early

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us //link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/20094582.56695/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9ib3Bpbmlvbg/582c8673566a94262a8b49bdB697d569d This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a reopening plan of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - States are [rushing out of lockdowns]( too soon. - Bailing out frackers will [only hurt oil prices more](. - Trump will [get his immigration ban](. - Airlines face a [generational realignment](. - Everything you know about [stocks vs. bonds is wrong](. Ohio Governor Mike DeWine. Photographer: Justin Merriman/Getty Images North America Governors Taking Chances, Making Mistakes Last Thursday, President Donald Trump’s White House gave America’s governors some reasonable guidelines for bringing their states out of pandemic lockdowns. This Era of Good Sense lasted entire hours. The next morning, Trump was [inciting]( rebellion against some of those same governors, and now four others have more or less used his guidelines mainly as kindling to light their health-care systems on fire. Georgia, Ohio, South Carolina and Tennessee are all in various stages of emerging from lockdowns, and Max Nisen points out [none of them meet the White House’s proposed requirements]( for doing so. See, for example, if you can spot the necessary two weeks of sustained decline in new Covid-19 cases in these charts from Georgia: You can’t spot it because it’s not there. The highest daily new-case count was just on Friday. All of those lines still seem to be trending upward, in fact — seemingly not a great time to reopen restaurants, bowling alleys, theaters and other places where people congregate and swap germs. Particularly disappointing among this group is Ohio. Governor Mike DeWine up until now has been an example of how a Republican politician can [stay on Trump’s good side while also competently doing his job](, writes Francis Wilkinson. He has taken the pandemic seriously and reacted accordingly, which makes his decision to exit lockdowns on May 1 more baffling, given these numbers: These governors surely want to end the economic pain of lockdowns (or maybe they just don’t want Trump to [sue them](). Everybody in Sweatpant Nation agrees. But doing so prematurely — without obviously improving data and more testing to confirm the numbers are right — will only lead to more lockdowns and even more economic pain. Oil Beatings, Morale, Etc. Yesterday, the price of May oil futures [plunged]( into negative territory, and because it was just one month, we could kind of dismiss it as technical weirdness. Today, June’s contract [plunged]( too, to less than $10 a barrel, making it a bit harder to dismiss. Cheap oil is usually a boon to consumers, but oil this cheap could be a death blow for many oil producers, which employ many voters. So Trump’s plan is to bail them out. Except [keeping too many inefficient frackers around]( will only worsen the supply glut behind the latest leg of the coronavirus price collapse, writes Liam Denning. Trump’s other big idea is to ban Saudi oil. But as Julian Lee writes, [that crude will only go elsewhere](, doing nothing to lower the world’s total supply. And a ban certainly won’t bring back demand. The only thing that will help is if Saudi Arabia and everybody else drastically cuts back on pumping the stuff. Further Oil-Crash Reading: Suddenly [Jerome Powell’s lack of inflation worry]( looks prescient. — Brian Chappatta Trump’s Immigration Hammer Sees Pandemic Nail Meanwhile, Trump’s latest answer to the coronavirus is to [ban all immigration](. This is a naked ploy to win re-election by appealing to his xenophobic base and changing the subject from his own mistakes, writes Noah Feldman. It probably won’t help end the pandemic, and it may not even be constitutional. But [his Supreme Court will probably let him have it anyway](, just as it did the Muslim ban. And this supposedly temporary immigration [shutdown may not be all that temporary](, writes Tyler Cowen. It will be a long time before immigration returns to normal, though we may still hire migrants to do the dangerous jobs Americans don’t want to do. Further Trump-Gambit Reading: America’s founders thought presidents should represent the whole nation, but [Trump is willing to tear the country apart]( to get re-elected. — Noah Feldman YOU Get a Bailout, and YOU Get a ... OK, Maybe Not You In better news, Congress today [agreed]( to refill the small-business piggy bank that ran out within just weeks of its creation. As we’ve written, the [management]( of this money pile has been less than ideal. Michael R. Strain has some [ideas to improve small-business relief](, including the Fed’s Main Street lending program. Also asking for a bailout, meanwhile, is Richard Branson, on behalf of Virgin Atlantic Airways. Although he has a net worth in the billions, Branson is cash-poor, sympathizes Chris Bryant. Still, the U.K. [government should extract concessions](, and Branson must be willing to post interest in Virgin Galactic as collateral. Whatever the outcome for Branson’s airline, the whole [industry faces the kind of realignment]( not seen in decades, writes David Fickling. Swashbuckling indies such as Branson may be endangered species relative to state-run behemoths. Telltale Charts Once the idea that stocks always beat bonds was a truism on par with “fire is hot," “water is wet” and “country music is bad.” No longer: [Bonds have actually outperformed stocks](, including dividend payments, over the past 20 years, writes Nir Kaissar. This shocking development throws into doubt a lot of other conventional wisdom about investing. The Chinese [aren’t exactly rushing to revenge-buy luxury goods]( after lockdowns, writes Nisha Gopalan. Further Reading Easing capital rules for investment banks in a crisis [risks eroding confidence in the banks](. — Elisa Martinuzzi We should [automatically stop bank dividends]( when the Fed goes into emergency mode. — Natasha Sarin [Don’t expect Boris Johnson to push for a quick reopening]( after his own coronavirus experience. — Therese Raphael The world’s many bad actors are [taking advantage of a preoccupied U.S.]( to press their agendas. — Hal Brands Voting models and fundraising totals are [pretty much useless in this election](. — Jonathan Bernstein Making it easier to [vote by mail may not benefit]( either party. — Scott Duke Kominers Covid-19 may end the relatively recent practice of [herding the elderly into segregated communities](. — Stephen Mihm ICYMI Kim [Jong Un is still ill](. Here’s [who might replace him](. Americans are [poisoning themselves]( in fear of coronavirus. Kickers A suspected exoplanet [may have been an asteroid collision](. (h/t Scott Kominers) Bats are [an evolutionary puzzle](. [Struggling to read that book]( in quarantine? You’re not alone. Note: Please send books and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](.  Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022