Two perspectives on the spread of coronavirus: Weekend Edition

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us //link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/19649449.34699/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9ib3Bpbmlvbg/582c8673566a94262a8b49bdBeaa18dc3 [Bill Gates Is Really Worried About the Coronavirus. Here’s Why.]( — Tyler Cowen Just how bad will the new coronavirus be? I can’t answer that question, but I have observed the debate splitting into two broad camps: Call them the “growthers” and the “base-raters.” The term “growthers” refers to the notion of exponential growth, and indeed the number of Covid-19 cases appears (by some accounts) to be following an exponential pattern. Some scientists have [estimated]( that the number of cases doubles about every seven days. If you play that logic out, it is easy enough to see how people might be complacent at first, then in a few months there is a public health crisis. Overall, the growthers tend to be analytical people who work a lot with numbers and are used to modeling the problems they face. The mindset in Washington, by contrast — and indeed much of America — is much closer to the base-raters. The base-raters, when assessing the likelihood of a particular scenario, start by asking how often it has happened before. That is, they estimate its base-rate likelihood. And history shows that major pandemics have lately been rare. The SARS and Ebola outbreaks largely petered out, HIV/AIDS was of a very different nature, and the 1957 and 1968 flu epidemics are now distant memories. Read the [whole thing](. [How Bad Is the Coronavirus? Let’s Run the Numbers]( — Justin Fox [Biden Should Begin Calling Ocasio-Cortez Now]( — Francis Wilkinson [How to Prepare (Rationally) for the Coronavirus]( — Faye Flam [Jack Welch Inflicted Great Damage on Corporate America]( — Joe Nocera [Lessons From Singapore’s Transparent Coronavirus Response]( — Faye Flam [Markets Are Approaching Their Point of Revulsion]( — John Authers [Can Singapore Save the World From Sinking?]( — Andy Mukherjee [The Fear Is About More Than the Coronavirus]( — Tyler Cowen [Italy Shows How to Tackle Coronavirus Impact]( — Ferdinando Giugliano This is the Weekend Edition of Bloomberg Opinion Today, a roundup of the 10 most popular stories Bloomberg Opinion published this week based on web readership, plus some other stuff sometimes thrown in.  Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022