Nine Democratic debates later, nothing's clearer

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us //link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/19500526.51702/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9ib3Bpbmlvbg/582c8673566a94262a8b49bdBd7066256 This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a debate scrum of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Last night’s big debate winner may [not be Warren](, but [Trump](. - Morgan Stanley [goes down-market]( to upscale. - Europe’s banking industry is [still too weak](. - Argentina is in [financial trouble again](. Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren. Photographer: Mario Tama/Getty Images North America Chaos Is the Democratic Front-Runner Last night was the ninth — ninth! — debate of Democratic presidential front-runners this election season. On Saturday, we’ll have the third nominating contest, in Nevada. We’re 144 days from the Democratic National Convention. Election Day is just 257 days away. And yet the race is still almost hopelessly unpredictable. Yes, the debate was widely considered a win for Senator Elizabeth Warren, who benefited from attacking Michael Bloomberg (founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, signer of this newsletter’s paychecks) early and often. The former New York City mayor was debating for the first time since 2009, and it [showed](. And yet [it may be too late for Warren to benefit]( from her win, writes Jonathan Bernstein. And it’s too early to count out Bloomberg, who gets another shot at debating next Tuesday (!) and isn’t even on a ballot until the Tuesday after that, aka, Super Tuesday. The night’s other big winner, by dint of mostly being left alone, was Senator Bernie Sanders, writes Ramesh Ponnuru. And this makes President Donald [Trump the third big winner of the night,]( Ramesh says, arguing that Sanders is a bad bet for the general election. [Polls]( say he isn’t, but then polls said that about Hillary Clinton. One bulky piece of luggage Sanders would drag into November is his Medicare for All plan. Sanders promises it will deliver better care and lower costs for everybody. But it’s [so easy to attack as expensive and disruptive](, Max Nisen notes, that Nevada’s Culinary Workers Union — typically the kind of group that would support Sanders — declined to endorse him or anybody else in the caucus. It’s a warning about Sanders’s ability to expand his appeal. The Vermont democratic socialist is the front-runner. But the still-crowded field could drag the contest out until the convention. And then the race’s chaos would be in full “turning and turning in the widening [gyre](” mode. We [don’t even know how such a convention would unfold](, writes Jonathan Bernstein. It will depend on the politics of the moment, determined weeks ago by some butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil. One thing is for sure: If Sanders is denied, then his supporters will be enraged, [possibly enough to throw the election]( to Trump, writes Cass Sunstein. Just 257 days until we ([start to]() find out. America’s Banks Keep Getting More Boring On the one hand, Morgan Stanley buying E*Trade Financial Corp. seems like Elon Musk buying a wrench at Home Depot. On the other hand, so what? Home Depot has good wrenches. The white-shoe bank apparently wants to manage more wealth than the mere $2.7 trillion it currently manages, with broader reach in online and retail banking. This $13 billion [deal](, the biggest by a U.S. bank since all those frantic crisis-era couplings, does the trick. It also provides [access to younger, less-wealthy clients]( who might eventually upgrade to Morgan Stanley Classic, writes Brian Chappatta. The deal is the latest sign the days of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs pitching themselves as trading wizards are over, notes Matt Levine. Now all the [money is in dull banking]( tasks such as collecting fees and running websites — boring, but stable. Like a Home Depot. Europe’s Banks Could Stand to Be More Boring Swiss banking giant UBS Group picked a new CEO, poaching Ralph Hamers, currently the CEO of ING. This came as a shock to almost everybody. Hamers brings a zeal for cost-cutting that UBS needs, writes Elisa Martinuzzi. [But he also brings baggage](, in the form of a money-laundering scandal, and lacks experience in some key UBS business lines. Meanwhile, a small Italian bank deal announced Monday, Intesa Sanpaolo’s $5.3 billion bid for Unione di Banche Italiane, could [start]( a long-needed wave of European bank consolidation, Elisa wrote earlier this week. Ferdinando Giugliano is less hopeful. He notes [cross-border deals are still too difficult](, while weaker European banks, of which there are plenty, will be left out of any wave. And until Europe has a stronger and more unified financial system, [it will be a weak counterpart to the City]( of London, writes Marcus Ashworth. The EU can’t exactly play hardball with the U.K. on post-Brexit financial regulations. And the Money Kept Rolling In (and Out) Just a few years ago, everybody was weirdly fine with lending money to the chronically bad credit of Argentina. Investors shoved their grandmothers out of the way to buy its [100-year bond](. Whoops! Just months later, Argentina was asking for another [bailout](. Today, the IMF declared Argentina’s debt load unsustainable, meaning creditors (including the IMF) are in for a [Moe Howard]( haircut. [Negotiations will be long and difficult](, writes Mohamed El-Erian, with big implications for global finance. In the process, President Alberto Fernandez [must resist the pull of populism]( and come up with a serious plan the IMF and creditors will accept, writes Mac Margolis. Telltale Charts L Brands Inc. has finally found a [taker for its troubled Victoria’s Secret franchise](. This will let it focus on Bath & Body Works, while still getting a taste of any upside private equity can squeeze out of the old lingerie brand, writes Andrea Felsted. ViacomCBS Inc. is unloved by markets, but its [breadth of content gives it]( at least a fighting chance against its rivals, writes Tara Lachapelle. Texas has a [big natural gas-flaring problem](, notes Liam Denning, but its best answer is, “Hey, at least we’re not Iraq?” Further Reading It’s about time [China took over HNA]( Group, which is saddled with debt after an M&A binge. — Anjani Trivedi and David Fickling The stress of being poor [pushes people to make bad decisions](, an argument for removing conditions from the social safety net. — Noah Smith Julian [Assange’s claim Trump offered him a pardon]( makes no sense. — Eli Lake Overseas military bases actually make the hosts [like Americans more](. — Hal Brands Iran’s election tomorrow [will be won by the hardliners](, as preordained by the Supreme Leader. — Bobby Ghosh ICYMI Roger Stone was sentenced to [more than three years]( in prison. The White House [admitted the trade war]( hurt the economy. In [America’s richest town](, $500,000 is a below-average income. Kickers Woman [plays violin during brain surgery]( to preserve the skill. (h/t Scott Kominers) As much as 90% of all [coral reefs could be gone]( in 20 years. AI helped [discover a new antibiotic]( that kills drug-resistant strains. Watching [TV helps birds]( make better food choices. Note: Please send antibiotics and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](.  Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022