Trump’s trade deal deserves a polite golf clap, at most

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us //link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/19173621.39709/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9ib3Bpbmlvbg/582c8673566a94262a8b49bdB1fb6f29e This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a hotpot of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - The China trade deal [may not]( be a big deal for the economy. - [What to expect]( when you’re [expecting impeachment](. - Markets [don’t see]( a T-Mobile–Sprint deal happening. - President or not, Putin’s [not giving up power](. Phase one done, and it only took three years. Photographer: SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images Trade War, Now With Slightly Less War Today’s trade-deal signing [ceremony]( at the White House was a little weird, and not just because it went on for approximately 17 hours and included shout-outs from President Donald Trump to everybody from Hank Greenberg to Mount Rushmore. It was weird because it felt like a war’s end, when in fact it was just an agreement not to make an ongoing war any worse. Because the deal leaves many open conflicts and questions, not to mention hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs, in place. Still, it is better than no trade deal at all. If you blur your eyes and play some [Tears for Fears](, you might even think it’s 1985 and the Plaza Accord all over again, writes John Authers. That agreement got Japan (the scary rising economy in those days) to agree to strengthen its currency, heading off a truly destructive trade war. But this [deal is far more limited]( than the Plaza one, John argues, offering less reason for optimism about its benefits (which didn’t stop U.S. stocks from hitting [new records]( yet again). It’s not that the deal won’t have any impact. Tyler Cowen argues the years of trade-warring that led to it may have hurt the U.S. economy, but not fatally, making Trump a more credible China adversary and the winner of this round. Less positively, the deal could also be another [punch in the gut to Hong Kong](, David Fickling writes, especially if China starts diverting some of the U.S. trade that usually flows through that city’s ports to the mainland to help it meet its promise to buy $200 billion of American stuff in the next two years. And to the extent China closes its trade surplus with the U.S., it will [upset the balance]( with the rest of its trading partners, tipping some of them into unwanted deficits, writes Christopher Balding. Perhaps Sting put it best in 1985 when he [sang]( “There's no such thing as a winnable war.” He was talking about the Russians, of course, but I just wanted you to remember that hilarious song. It’s Impeachment O’Clock While Trump filibustered in the White House, the House of Representatives debated and then [voted]( to send articles of impeachment to the Senate, once and for all settling the question of whether [Schrödinger’s Impeachment]( was alive or dead. The wisdom of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s long delay in taking this step has been [debated]( for [weeks](. But in the final analysis it [did help Democrats](, if only by just a bit, writes Jonathan Bernstein. While we waited, we got [new evidence](, potential new witnesses, and a bit of extra pressure on Republicans to feel bad when they inevitably acquit Trump. The trial could begin next Tuesday and last for weeks, well beyond Trump’s scheduled Feb. 4 State of the Union address, which should be fun, by some definitions of “fun.” The trial [certainly won’t be fun]( like “12 Angry Men” or “My Cousin Vinny” or other fictional trials, warns Noah Feldman. It will mainly involve congresspeople standing around and talking. That’s just how the Senate wants it, and the Senate has total control. T-Mobile–Sprint Deal May Be Breaking Up Speaking of trials, there were closing arguments today in the trial of a lawsuit by state attorneys general trying to stop the merger of T-Mobile US Inc. and Sprint Corp. The states claim the merger will hurt consumers, and they’ve got the stronger argument, writes Tara Lachapelle. But it’s all in the judge’s hands, and he may agree with regulators that the deal is fine. Still, for what it’s worth, the market has [already rendered a verdict](, Tara writes, and it’s not one T-Mobile or Sprint will like: Putin Makes Self Potentate for Life Vladimir Putin’s final term as Russia’s president is due to end in 2024, but fans of Putin and/or endless dictatorial power should take heart: He’ll probably find a way to keep himself in charge for the foreseeable future. He just proposed a bunch of constitutional reforms, many of which would give him three or four different ways to [keep power indefinitely]( while weakening the power of whatever poor sap becomes president after him, writes Leonid Bershidsky. One configuration would look like China’s party-run system, another would look like Kazakhstan’s. None would resemble a functioning democracy. Telltale Charts Germany’s long economic [miracle is ending](, writes Andreas Kluth, brought low by de-globalization, car electrification, an aging population and more. The ordinarily solid Target Corp. delivered some [rare bad news]( with its holiday-sales report, raising questions about the retail sector’s health, writes Andrea Felsted. Further Reading We should mold executive pay packages to reward CEOs for [doing good](. — Chris Bryant Most mom-and-pop investors probably [missed the stock rally](, as they always do. — Jared Dillian Trump’s plan to change how the media reports economic data is a [recipe for chaos]( and unfairness. — Dan Moss Google’s plan to [ban third-party]( ad trackers may help consumers, but definitely helps Google. — Alex Webb The 2010s were boom times for the wealthy. This could be the decade when the [rest of us catch up](. — Conor Sen Israel’s new [“laser sword](” could enforce a truce with Hamas. — Zev Chafets Baseball could fix its [sign-stealing problem]( by giving up on old-fashioned finger signals. — Stephen Carter ICYMI The SALT cap is [driving people]( from high-tax states. Climate change is [killing alpine skiing](. LSU quarterback can’t keep [$100,000 football](. Kickers Letting [slower passengers board]( the plane first is really faster. Advertising [makes people unhappy](. [Plant life is proliferating]( at high altitudes in the Himalayas. Alleged leaked [“Star Wars IX” script]( may be better than “Rise of Skywalker.” Note: Please send leaked scripts and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](.  Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022