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Todayâs Agenda
- Aramcoâs IPO may [ring the bell on peak Big Oil](.
- Of course the [T-Mobile/Sprint merger wonât be good]( for consumers.
- The Fed tells Trump itâs [done cleaning up]( his trade-war messes.
- Trumpâs [impeachment charges could still grow](.
This Is the Era of Peak Big Oil
About 14 years ago, all anybody could talk about was Peak Oil Supply: We would soon start running out of the stuff, reverting us to a donkey-powered global economy. Now everybody talks about the opposite: Peak Oil Demand. And that has led to another oil-related peak: Peak Big Oil.
We got a couple of examples today. First, Saudi Aramcoâs IPO started [trading]( in Riyadh, the stock exchange to which Aramco retreated after its [painful]( realization that foreign investors would balk at making it a $2 trillion company. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is apparently fixated on that number. So wealthy Saudis were encouraged to invest, with memories still fresh of the all-expenses-paid [vacation]( at the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton MBS gave them a couple of years ago. Lo and behold, Aramco jumped 10% in its first day of trading, pushing the valuation toward that magical $2 trillion number.
The IPOâs tortured (no pun intended) âsuccessâ could, Matt Levine suggests, [encourage foreign investors]( to jump on the team and come on in for the [big win]( in a subsequent offering. But those original investor qualms just [get stronger]( by the day, writes Chris Hughes. These include not only Aramcoâs lack of transparency and domination by an authoritarian regime, but worries about oil demand sagging as the globe warms. Aramco increasingly looks like a relic of the era of Big Oil companies doing Big Projects to ease worries about Peak Supply.
The opposite is in vogue with investors now, as another Big Oil company, Chevron Corp., acknowledged today. It wrote off more than $10 billion of an investment in Marcellus shale gas, becoming the latest in a string of companies to [retreat from big spending](, notes Liam Denning. They realize their cash is better spent enticing investors with dividends and other such goodies. Aramco, which so far has resisted this lesson, could soon end up a fossil-fuel-pumping fossil.
T-Mobile and Sprint Havenât Rewired Economics
You can probably trust T-Mobile US Inc. and Sprint Corp. to master something as mundane as 5G technology, because they have apparently figured out how to reverse the basic laws of economics. Fighting for their merger in court, they are arguing that reducing the supply of mobile-phone service by taking out one viable competitor will somehow leave the price of mobile-phone service unchanged or maybe even magically lower. U.S. antitrust regulators have swallowed this argument, but [consumers and courts should not](, writes Tara Lachapelle. Though Sprint has struggled, its existence has lowered prices, Tara writes, and the remedies regulators have come up with wonât fill the hole it leaves behind.
Bonus Corporate-Speak Reading: Boeing Co. has once again proven [itâs too rosy]( about the 737 Max return timeline. â Brooke Sutherland
Fed to Trump: Youâre on Your Own
Shocking no one â but possibly upsetting President Donald Trump, who keeps [demanding]( negative interest rates â the Federal Reserve today held rates steady, basically declaring an end to its three-cut easing campaign. Even the central bankâs implied promise to leave rates alone throughout 2020 wasnât all that shocking, notes Brian Chappatta. But the Fed unexpectedly launched a shot across the bow of its tormentor Trump: In its policy statement, and in carefully chosen words from Chairman Jay Powell, it suggested itâs growing weary of saving Trump from the consequences of his own trade war. The Fed might help if growing hostilities do real economic damage next year, Brian writes, but itâs apparently [done soothing markets]( every time Trump ratchets up the rhetoric.
On-the-Other-Hand Fed Reading: The economy [could still be a lot better](, and the Fed should keep cutting rates. â Karl Smith
Big Impeachment Question: Keep It Simple?
It was a quiet day on the impeachment front, with Democrats possibly tuckered out from a long day of delivering articles of impeachment while delivering Trump a [big win]( on trade and then attending a [dress-up ball at the White House](. Nice political enemies, if you can get them! Anyway, thereâs [still time for Democrats]( to expand the two narrow articles they announced yesterday, writes Jonathan Bernstein. It happened to Richard Nixon, and we should at least expect some Dems to try. Still, keeping impeachment tightly focused on Trumpâs gross abuse of power for personal gain to undermine the 2020 election will help [keep our politics from devolving]( into a tit-for-tat impeachment cycle, writes Cass Sunstein.
Bonus Politics Reading: The Demsâ winnowing strategies [arenât perfect]( if they let Tom Steyer and Andrew Yang on the next debate stage but leave Cory Booker and Julian Castro off.
Telltale Charts
The dollar is [fading as a global reserve currency](, but it will be difficult to replace, writes Noah Smith.
The bond market is [underpricing the odds of higher inflation]( next year, which could make TIPS a winner, writes Brian Chappatta.
Further Reading
The rest of the world isnât just laughing at America under Trump; itâs starting to [hate and fear it](. â James Gibney
Europeâs new young leaders favor [issue-by-issue pragmatism]( over party dogma. â Leonid Bershidsky
Awayâs CEO has been sent away over her treatment of employees, but [far too many CEOs]( out there are just like her. â Sarah Green Carmichael
Health-care cost growth may be slowing, [but not in Medicare](. â Peter Orszag
The Supreme Courtâs [threat to the regulatory state]( has been greatly exaggerated. â Ramesh Ponnuru
In its final season, âSilicon Valleyâ delivered [a serious message](Â about Silicon Valley. (Spoilers ahoy.) â Joe Nocera
ICYMI
Joe Biden suggested he would [only serve one term](Â if elected president.
Your technology is [probably listening to you right now](.
Facebook Inc. and Google [dropped out of Glassdoorâs top 10](âBest Places to Work.â
Kickers
Plants may let out [ultrasonic squeals when stressed](. (h/t Ellen Kominers)
FINALLY, researchers create [pig-monkey chimeras](. (h/t Mike Smedley)
Ultrasound treatment could [destroy most prostate cancers](.
The Ringerâs [41 favorite sports moments]( from 2019.
Note: Please send stressed plants and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.
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