Global warming sets Saudi Aramco’s IPO on fire

[Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a Brunswick stew of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Aramco’s Saudi-only IPO [defeats its own purpose](. - Time to [clear up some impeachment myths](. - Stocks are [priced for ever-more-perfect]( outcomes. - Tories [just keep winning elections](. Aramco’s Not-So-Great Expectations You’d have to be a Saudi prince soaking in oil riches to find $1.5 trillion — the value of more than five Exxon Mobils — too small a sum, but that’s where Saudi Aramco is today. The kingdom’s state-owned oil behemoth had been fishing for international investors to buy into its IPO, with visions of a $2 trillion valuation dancing in its head; although it would have settled for $1.6 trillion, or roughly two Amazon.coms. It came back instead with that $1.5 trillion number — only barely bigger than one Microsoft, the horror! That crushed its dreams, forcing it to trim the IPO and aim it mainly at a (sometimes [literally]() captive audience of Saudi citizens. Oh, and those [citizens will pay dearly for the privilege](, often borrowing from Saudi banks to do so, notes Liam Denning: This disappointing new approach [defeats the original strategic purpose of the IPO](, which was to make Aramco more of a modern, free-range enterprise, write Chris Hughes and Liam Denning. Matt Levine suggests even a limited, controlled-burn IPO will generate a tradeable stock price that [could eventually entice foreign investors](. The trouble is that, unless Aramco soon gets into an entirely different business — co-working space, say, or cryptocurrency — it will still be a mammoth producer of oil and its byproducts. [These are not exactly in favor among investors lately](, notes Julian Lee; and the more the warming world burns, floods and chokes on plastic pollution, the less appealing an investment Saudi Aramco will be — and the better that mere $1.5 trillion will look. Impeachment Analyst Ratings: Sell Trump Testimony Not much happened on the impeachment front today, though President Donald Trump helpfully kept it in the headlines by [musing]( he might testify before Congress. At the time of this writing, the nation continues to hold its collective breath. Before actual testimony resumes tomorrow, Ramesh Ponnuru suggests it’s a good time to put to rest [three myths poisoning the impeachment debate](: Mick Mulvaney didn’t really tell people to “get over” an improper quid pro quo; Adam Schiff didn’t really lie about Trump’s July 25 phone call with Ukraine’s president; and the whistle-blower’s lawyer didn’t really call for a coup. Speaking of myths, the legend of Trump’s kingmaking abilities took another hit last night, as the Republican gubernatorial candidate in Louisiana lost to the Democratic incumbent. This is the latest in [a string of defeats for red-state candidates]( Trump has showered with attention and rallies, notes Jonathan Bernstein. His ability to sway elections was always a bit mythical, but now any trace of magic has disappeared. That could change how Republicans think about his political power as they consider impeachment. Further Politics Reading: Elizabeth Warren’s [staggered approach to Medicare For All is a smart hedge](, both more ambitious and more realistic than those of her rivals. — Max Nisen Stocks Now Priced for Even More Perfection U.S. stock prices [rose]( today because that is just what they do now. At some point when nobody was paying attention, red numbers on Terminals were outlawed. So the market underreacts to bad news and overreacts to good news, as happened again today with seesawing headlines about the trade war. As John Authers wrote last week, this is mainly thanks to [central banks pumping cash into the economy]( again, so it’s somewhat understandable. But at this point U.S. [stocks are priced for the kind of perfection nowhere in evidence]( in the economic data, writes Robert Burgess. This seems unlikely to end well. Further Investment Reading: Active managers are doing all the right things but [still losing the game](. — John Authers Conservatives Keep Winning U.K. Elections With This ONE WEIRD TRICK The Greek philosopher Heraclitus said, “No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man.” Old ’Clitus would have absolutely adored the U.K.’s Conservative Party, which proves his point by repeatedly [winning elections while never being the same party]( twice, as Tim Bale writes. For example, the euro-friendly Tories of the 1980s would barely recognize today’s Tories, which are trying to burn every bridge with Europe, while also promising to do away with the austerity favored by Tories of more-recent vintage. It’s working for them so far; they’ve got a large, if shrinking, [lead]( going into the Dec. 12 election. As another philosopher once [said](: Just win, baby. Further Brexit Reading: British regulators seem just as happy as Europe’s are with [killing off equity analysts](. — Lionel Laurent Telltale Charts The airplane business has been an exception to a global industrial slowdown, but even [that’s now showing signs of slowing down](, writes Brooke Sutherland. Trump isn’t the only thing [keeping foreign students from enrolling]( in U.S. colleges, but he sure isn’t helping, writes Justin Fox. Further Reading John Legere’s departure [marks a new era for T-Mobile US Inc](., one in which it’s no longer the scrappy upstart benefiting consumers. — Tara Lachapelle Rather than fuming about China’s industrial policy, [America should admit it works and embrace its own]( version. — Gabriel Wildau The U.S. should [strengthen ties with Vietnam](, a natural ally in containing China’s ambitions. — James Stavridis Maybe class resentment is bubbling up now because [the rich seem less likely to be reduced]( to rags. — Noah Smith There are [ways to measure Russian influence]( in elections, and we should try them. — Leonid Bershidsky There’s [little evidence that misleading political ads]( actually change behavior. — Faye Flam America [shouldn’t strip suspected terrorists of citizenship](. — Noah Feldman ICYMI Hong Kong protesters are [trapped in a university siege](. Prince Andrew’s [PR rehab is not going well](. Kylie Jenner is [$600 million richer](. Kickers Kiss played a [concert for sharks](. (h/t Mike Smedley) [Multi-colored octopus filmed]( off the Philippines. California tiki bar [pulled $10,000 from its walls](, gave it to charity. (h/t Scott Kominers for the past two kickers) Why office noise [bothers some more than others](. Note: Please send $10,000 and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022