The DNC’s elimination strategy is working

[BloombergOpinion]( [Early Returns]( [Jonathan Bernstein]( Earlier this week, I [noted]( a lack of news in the Democratic nomination battle. That changed Thursday, with a series of new polls, an interesting [endorsement]( for Senator Elizabeth Warren, signs that a [Joe Biden Super PAC]( is on the way, and two big developments: Representative Tim Ryan became the first candidate to [drop out]( in the past month, and Senator Amy Klobuchar became the ninth to qualify for the November debate. Ryan’s decision matters not so much in itself — he hadn’t won any support in the polls or evident interest from party actors — but because it’s further confirmation that the Democratic National Committee’s strategy of limiting access to the debate stage has been successful at pushing candidates out early. The field is still enormous, with 17 or 18 contenders left. But Ryan, who failed to qualify for the last two debates and was unlikely to make the next one, will probably be the first in another wave of winnowing. Remember, it’s not just the debates themselves: Media outlets and interest groups seem to be adopting the DNC’s standards for their own events, such as the [CNN equality forum]( this month, which makes failing to qualify a big problem for campaigns struggling to get attention. Meanwhile, Klobuchar made it into the next round after hitting 3% in four polls. For what it’s worth, she also reached [4% in an Iowa poll]( released Thursday and by [one estimate]( has moved into seventh place nationally. Three candidates who were at the October debate have yet to qualify this time. Former Representative Beto O’Rourke still needs two more good polls to make it; Representative Tulsi Gabbard needs three; and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro needs four, as does everyone who didn’t make it in October. (Candidates need to reach 3% or better in four qualifying national or early-state polls to be invited.) That suggests we’re down to seven plausible nominees: Biden, Senator Cory Booker, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Senator Kamala Harris, Klobuchar, Senator Bernie Sanders and Warren. Quite a few would need a big surge from this point to be able to win, although that’s [happened before](. I also still find it hard to imagine a path for Sanders, but as long as he keeps his faction together it’s difficult to discount him entirely. Two others who will be at the next debate, activist Tom Steyer and entrepreneur Andrew Yang, have little if any support from party actors. Yes, Donald Trump won a nomination without such support, but he was leading in the polls at this point, not lagging far behind, and dominated media coverage throughout. I’m not ruling anything out after 2016. So I won’t say it’s impossible for Steyer, Yang or one of the candidates who doesn’t make it into the next debate to win the nomination — but I will say it’s increasingly unlikely. 1. Norm Ornstein on [Trump and emoluments](. 2. Jennifer Victor on the “SCIF stunt” and [declining Republican support for Trump in Congress](. 3. Dave Hopkins on [Republican complaints about the impeachment process](. Both Victor and Hopkins have excellent items. The key thing about the process complaints is that everyone involved knows they’ll soon be obsolete when Democrats move to the public phase of the process. 4. Chris Baylor at A House Divided on the Democratic Party’s transformation on [gay rights in the 1970s](. 5. Good Greg Sargent item on what Republicans in Congress are up to and how [it’s a sign of their weak position](. 6. And Quinta Jurecic on a new low in [attacks on members of Congress](. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. [Click here to subscribe](hash=b9b2681361bede0e1069ca238efb1ec2). Also subscribe to [Bloomberg All Access]( and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. Bloomberg L.P. ● 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Web]( ● [Facebook]( ● [Twitter]( [Feedback]( ● [Unsubscribe](