If Trump is removed, what happens next?

[BloombergOpinion]( [Early Returns]( [Jonathan Bernstein]( I was all ready to criticize a column in the Washington Post on Wednesday titled, “If Republicans don’t stand by Trump, they risk losing their base forever.” But it turns out that while the [item]( makes several outlandish assertions, it doesn’t make the particularly outlandish one in the headline. Even so, it’s a good excuse for a thought experiment: What would President Donald Trump’s political clout be like in the (still unlikely) event that he’s actually ousted from office? It’s an important question, because Trump’s survival might in fact depend on what Republican politicians think would happen once he was removed. The key to this exercise is that Trump’s removal requires a two-thirds majority, and thus a minimum of 20 Republican senators opposing him, but there’s [virtually no way he’d be convicted by a 67-33 vote](. For one thing, it’s hard to envision any grouping of Republican senators that would include 20 defectors out of 53; in reality, only about a dozen of them would realistically vote against their own majority. For another, there’s safety in numbers: A lot of mainstream conservatives who might be tempted to remove Trump probably wouldn’t do so if they could be identified as the deciding vote. That suggests that any removal is more likely to get a healthy majority of Republican senators than a minority. But they aren’t going to turn against Trump unless they’re confident that the party is with them — which means, among other things, that it’s not going to happen unless Republican-aligned media has turned against him. We’re not talking about Senators Mitt Romney and Lamar Alexander being ready to remove Trump backed by Never-Trump pundits; we’re talking about at least some Fox News and talk-radio hosts who have been enthusiastic supporters deciding to oppose the president, and thereby giving cover to the bulk of Republican senators. All this means that removal is unlikely! But if it did happen, the key point is that Trump probably wouldn’t pose much of a threat to anyone. After all, he would’ve just been abandoned by his own party. My guess is that he’d become a minor figure overnight. Republicans would rediscover his various deviations from party orthodoxy (just as, after 2008, they decided that President George W. Bush hadn’t actually been a conservative). They could easily blame Hillary Clinton for forcing them to temporarily bond with him. And without party-aligned media to amplify him, Trump might quickly find that a large Twitter following doesn’t actually count for much. As it is, Trump’s political sway has probably been overrated. He’s been pretty good at endorsing primary candidates who are clearly headed for a win, while otherwise sitting things out; in fact, that’s the one legitimate political skill he’s really demonstrated. But finding challengers for Republican senators and then working diligently to get them elected isn’t exactly Trump’s style. Perhaps a post-removal Trump could still fill an arena. Or maybe he’d try to use his celebrity to wield political influence of some other kind. Or perhaps he’d focus on a much-diminished group of true believers, and keep selling them hats and T-shirts. There’s also the possibility that he’d spend his days navigating significant legal trouble. Of course, all this is speculative. But it’s anchored, again, in the math of the situation, and in the hard fact that there won’t be any removal from office without at least 20, and likely closer to 40, Republican senators on board. 1. At the Monkey Cage, Faten Ghosn and Sarah E. Parkinson on [protesters in Lebanon](. 2. Dahlia Lithwick on [recently appointed Republican judges](. 3. Kel McClanahan on a stunt by House Republicans that delayed a closed impeachment-related hearing on Wednesday — and, foolishly, [perhaps jeopardized national security in the process](. What’s worth noting about this dismal episode is not that the minority party is engaging in silly stunts, but how pointless their entire line of complaint is. Republicans are of course authorized to attend these hearings, including some of the members who “stormed” a room that they could’ve simply walked into, and it’s all going to be forgotten shortly when the public phase of the investigation begins. 4. Besides, as Philip Klein points out, it’s not at all clear that the case for Trump [will be enhanced by a more public process](. 5. Nathaniel Rakich on the [high number of ads for 2020 presidential candidates](. Why so many? Tom Steyer, mainly. 6. And my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Matt Levine [on WeWork](. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. [Click here to subscribe](hash=b9b2681361bede0e1069ca238efb1ec2). Also subscribe to [Bloomberg All Access]( and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. Bloomberg L.P. ● 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Web]( ● [Facebook]( ● [Twitter]( [Feedback]( ● [Unsubscribe](