Trump’s China trade war enters classic ‘NBA’ phase

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - Trade-war peace seems [further away than ever](. - Trump’s best people [help get him into trouble](. - Betraying the Kurds is [a strategic disaster](. - Earnings [forecasts are too optimistic](. Basketball Gets Dragged Into the Trade War Far from being easy to win, President Donald Trump’s trade war with China just keeps getting more complicated. And now basketball is involved somehow? Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey opened this new front by tweeting support for Hong Kong protesters. This drew rebukes from China and the National Basketball Association, sparking a furious bipartisan backlash in the U.S. and a [retreat]( by NBA Commissioner Adam Silver. What does any of this have to do with the trade war? It highlights [how far apart the U.S. and China still are]( on fundamental rights, writes Karl Smith, suggesting a comprehensive trade deal is a pipe dream. Trump also expanded the conflict to include eight new Chinese tech firms, which his administration will blacklist much as it did Huawei Technologies Co. Tim Culpan points out [these companies are some of China’s rising homegrown stars](, and Beijing will not take this well. It probably won’t be a fan of [new travel bans]( for some Chinese officials either. And Trump’s on-again/off-again desire to clamp down on U.S. capital flows to China is back [on again](, news that [hurt]( stock prices today. [Traders keep getting whipsawed]( by trade-war headlines, Robert Burgess notes, as if every day their brains were wiped of all memory of Trump’s wild trade-policy swings over the past 18 months, like a terrible “[50 First Dates](” reboot. Many [observers think]( shutting off capital to China is a [bad idea](, and Brian Chappatta joins that chorus by noting that stripping Chinese investments from government pensions – Trump’s latest plan – will [mainly hurt government pensioners](. But Christopher Balding suggests one approach could help American investors: [depriving Chinese stocks of American listings]( if they don’t meet basic financial reporting standards. Sounds simple. But just wait until football gets involved. Further NBA vs. China Reading: - The NBA has a right to [ask employees not to sound off]( on China politics when it’s trying to build a business there. – Tyler Cowen - But Beijing knows basketball is wildly popular in China, and [any effort to ban the NBA will fail](. The league has all the leverage in this fight. – Adam Minter Trump’s Best People Help Get Him in Trouble Trump’s impeachment war also deepened, as his administration [forbade]( a key witness to testify in the House, drawing a subpoena threat. The witness, EU ambassador Gordon Sondland, is a Trump loyalist who enthusiastically joined efforts to get Ukraine (not an EU member, NB) to dig up dirt on the Biden family. Sondland is a rich hotelier with no diplomatic experience, much as Trump is a rich real-estate developer with no government experience, notes Tim O’Brien. In fact, all the president’s men involved in this scandal [are like Trump in not very flattering ways](, which helps explain why he’s on the edge of impeachment now. Sondland, Rudy Giuliani and others made up a sort of shadow diplomatic corps that circumvented the existing national-security apparatus to pursue Trump’s personal political goals. This is the natural result of Trump’s [undermining the National Security Council for years](, writes Hal Brands. It’s hurting American interests and could cost Trump his job. Further Trump Trouble Reading: A federal court just [raised the possibility Trump could be prosecuted]( while in office. – Noah Feldman What to Expect When You’ve Betrayed the Kurds Again Another product of Trump’s takeover of the national-security apparatus is his decision to let Turkey roll into Kurdish territory in Syria. This marks [at least the third betrayal of the Kurds]( by an American president since 1975, notes Bobby Ghosh. It bolsters America's reputation as an unreliable meddler in the Middle East. And the security implications of a Turkish invasion could be dire, writes Bloomberg’s editorial board: It [could re-strengthen Islamic State]( and cause refugees to flood into Iraq, which is [already destabilized by protests](, as Ellen Wald notes. Congress must make sure they have safe havens, including in the U.S. It’s the least we can do. Turkey hasn’t invaded yet, raising hopes Trump has persuaded Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cool his jets. He [invited]( him to the White House, after all. But Eli Lake writes [much damage has already been done](, as Syrian Kurds are abandoning ground to brace for a possible attack. Trump has also rewarded Erdogan for bad behavior and basically announced America will ditch allies for dictators as easily as you might change a sweater. Bonus Editorial: Juries are rejecting [extreme uses of Stand Your Ground laws](, but they’re still applied unfairly. They should be repealed everywhere. Brace Yourself for Corporate Earnings Earnings season starts next week, and it probably won’t be good; though Wall Street has, as usual, lowered expectations to make everything a pleasant surprise. But investors must wrestle with whether [even these meager earnings victories are real]( or massaged, writes John Authers. We’re also going to start hearing forecasts for the year ahead, and those will be decidedly less rosy than current estimates, which have [stayed optimistic in defiance of reality](, notes Robert Burgess. Telltale Charts The very wealthiest Americans [pay a lower tax rate than all the rest]( of us, notes Noah Smith. It’s time to fix this. Investors want [oil stocks for one thing]( and one thing only these days, writes Liam Denning: dividends. Further Reading Ed Stack of Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. explains why he’s [been taking guns from stores](. – Joe Nocera Boris Johnson is rather [obviously trying to paint the EU as the bad guy]( in Brexit talks to help his case in a general election. – Lionel Laurent Lost income from illness can be just as devastating as high medical bills; we must [protect workers with short-term disability]( benefits. – Ray Kluender The Reading Eagle proved [good journalism isn’t enough]( to save local newspapers. – Joe Nocera ICYMI The next recession could be [caused by businesses](. Boston office towers could be [a recession harbinger](. Developers aren’t thrilled with Apple Inc.’s [merged iPad and Mac apps](. Kickers Scientists discover [20 new Saturn moons](, giving it more than Jupiter. (h/t Scott Kominers) Bats [argue all the time]( just like people. (h/t Shira Ovide) Animals [keep jumping]( through [plate glass](. Painting [cows to look like zebras]( keeps flies away. Note: Please send moons and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022