We’re likely headed for impeachment

[BloombergOpinion]( [Early Returns]( [Jonathan Bernstein]( Folks, I think the president of the United States is going to be impeached. The signals are clear. First, [seven new members of the House](, all with national-security backgrounds, published an op-ed Monday demanding that the administration hand over a whistle-blower complaint that reportedly [alleges misconduct]( by President Donald Trump – and saying that impeachment would be the proper response if the reports about the complaint are true. Then [two]( [allies]( of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said much the same. Impeachment still isn’t certain. The immediate flash point is a Thursday deadline the House has set for the whistle-blower complaint to be delivered. If the administration complies, it’s possible that the added details in the complaint could defuse the situation somewhat (although what Trump has already admitted to should be sufficient for an impeachment). And so far, only the Republican-turned-independent Justin Amash seems likely to join the House Democrats, while conviction would require a lot more Republican defections than seem likely at the moment. Time for a Watergate story. Very early on, when the original cover-up was still intact and President Richard Nixon was cruising to a landslide re-election, House Majority Leader Tip O’Neill, as [Fred Emery tells the story](, “reckoned that so many bad things had been done by the Nixon men that they simply could not be kept secret indefinitely. Privately, he urged his surprised colleagues in the House leadership to ‘get ready for impeachment.’” But O’Neill was patient. The House didn’t move after the cover-up collapsed in spring 1973, or after dramatic Senate hearings that summer revealed that Nixon was personally involved. Only after the Saturday Night Massacre in October, when Nixon ordered Justice Department officials to fire the special prosecutor overseeing the probe, did they start moving toward impeachment. And then for months, the judiciary committee slowly gathered evidence to make its case. This strategy eventually worked, as the story gradually came out and moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats began defecting from Nixon – followed by the rest of the Republican Party in August 1974. Has Pelosi been emulating O’Neill? She’s been taking plenty of heat from pro-impeachment Democrats. She’s certainly been unwilling to get ahead of her caucus. Perhaps that’s because she thinks impeachment could be avoided. Or perhaps she’s been betting that Trump’s past and current lawlessness would keep supplying new evidence pushing ambivalent Democrats toward action – and that a measured, patient process would be far stronger than a rushed one. After all, whatever the merits of a party-line impeachment, an effort that could barely get the necessary 218 votes out of the 239 Democrats (plus Amash) would be much weaker, and we still don’t know whether House Democrats would vote unanimously. In fact, there’s plenty we don’t know. The Washington Post [reports]( that the House leadership is considering using a select committee to pursue impeachment. (Odd, isn’t it, that the famously anti-impeachment leadership seems to have advanced plans for how to do the deed?) Nor is it clear what the scope of such proceedings would be: Just the whistle-blower story? That plus the obstruction of justice identified by special counsel Robert Mueller? Plus emoluments and conflicts of interest? Plus other abuses of power? The one thing this situation isn’t lacking is legitimate material to investigate. Even so, Democrats haven’t yet committed to go ahead with impeachment. Most of their public statements have only called for an impeachment inquiry, which of course has been [taking place]( with or without formal authorization for months now. But it does seem likely that the more advanced their process gets, the harder it will be to apply the brakes. Especially given that Trump is extremely unlikely to (say) cooperate with normal oversight procedures, and thus will make the substantive case for impeachment stronger. There may also be a lot of shoes left to drop. No one knows yet whether Republicans will take all this seriously, let alone vote to impeach or remove the president. And the Senate majority can set the rules for an impeachment trial any way they like, so long as they have the votes; a trial about the whistle-blower accusations could well wind up mired in unsubstantiated rumors and accusations about former Vice President Joe Biden. But yes, add all of it up, and it certainly seems likely we’re headed for impeachment. 1. Matthew Green at Mischiefs of Faction on Representative [Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and norms](. 2. Mira Rapp-Hooper at the Monkey Cage on the [U.S., Saudi Arabia and formal alliances](. 3. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux on the [fight by liberals to end the filibuster](. 4. Suzy Khimm on what’s happening with [rural public housing](. 5. Laurence H. Tribe and Joshua Matz on the [House’s lawsuit over Trump’s tax returns](. 6. Steven Greenhouse on the [Democratic presidential candidates and labor](. 7. Greg Sargent on [the case for impeachment](, anticipating the Democrats’ shift later on Monday. 8. And my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Timothy L. O'Brien on how [Trump never learns his lessons](. One reason why I still won’t rule out the possibility that he winds up losing Republican support after all. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. [Click here to subscribe](hash=b9b2681361bede0e1069ca238efb1ec2). Also subscribe to [Bloomberg All Access]( and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. Bloomberg L.P. ● 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Web]( ● [Facebook]( ● [Twitter]( [Feedback]( ● [Unsubscribe](