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Todayâs Agenda
- From [Facebook]( to [Tesla]( to [3M](, corporate earnings are a Rorschach test.
- Robert Mueller [shouldnât be embarrassed]( by his performance; [Republicans should](.
- Congress must force Trump to [properly staff up]( his administration.
- Boris Johnsonâs no-deal Brexit [threat will work](, or [it wonât](.
Great Bad Quarter, Guys!
Is Corporate America telling us that things are good, or that they are bad? The answer is yes.
âTis that quarterly season when public companies report on the previous three months, after lowering expectations enough that we can all say âGreat quarter, guys!â when they beat them. So far most companies are clearing those lowered hurdles, despite a trade war and global economic worries so profound the Fed will probably cut interest rates next week. But not all is rosy.Â
Facebook Inc., for example, raked in more revenue and new users in the quarter than Wall Street expected. But Shira Ovide notes the growth of both numbers keeps grinding lower, [hinting Facebookâs core app is in decline](. Facebook is spending a kajillion dollars to find new growth sources before investor patience expires. There are also signs Facebookâs many, many [privacy controversies are biting](, Shira writes in a second column.
Tesla Inc., meanwhile, sold a record number of electric cars in the latest quarter. Hooray! But it [also lost a very large amount of money]( in the quarter. Boo! Losing money is fine when youâre growing quickly, of course (see Amazon.com Inc.). But Teslaâs growth is slowing, Liam Denning notes â not a great look for a company priced at 109 times earnings. And unlike Facebook, Tesla isnât exactly spending wildly to fuel new growth. Meanwhile, people may want to buy its cars, but they [donât want to pay as much for them]( as they once did, Liam notes in a second column.
Unabashedly upbeat, 3M Co. bucked a grim quarter for industrials by beating profit expectations and not cutting its forecast for a bump in sales in the back half of the year. But Brooke Sutherland warns many [good things must happen to make 3Mâs wishes]( come true, and other companies are warning those things wonât happen.Â
Further Earnings Reading: Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. just made clear [why it needs its megamerger]( with Celgene Corp. â Max NisenÂ
More Mueller Reviews
Former special counsel Robert Muellerâs congressional testimony yesterday continues to divide critics on the right and left. He brought damning facts about Russian election interference and President Donald Trumpâs involvement therewith, but he also âlacked a compelling musical number,â as Adam Serwer [put it](. The joke there is that no musical number was necessary, and Cass Sunstein argues [Mueller did exactly what he was supposed to do](: stick to the facts and avoid partisanship. And Jonathan Bernstein argues [Republicans embarrassed themselves]( by focusing purely on insane conspiracy theories while ignoring the central point of Muellerâs probe: that American elections are still vulnerable to foreign interference.Â
Trumpâs Empty White House, Threats
Muellerâs performance was not enough to inspire Democrats to impeach Trump, who will likely remain president for at least another 18 months. He will be very lonely; his administration is filled with empty offices and loosely attached âactingâ cabinet members. This is a disaster waiting to happen, and [the rules make it far too easy for Trump to get away]( with this, Bloombergâs editorial board. With the time saved by not impeaching Trump, maybe Congress can tighten the rules.Â
Trump will also likely spend the next 18 months continuing to chase away immigrants. This appeals to his base, but it could also [turn Canada into a high-tech haven](, writes Noah Smith. Trumpâs animosity toward foreigners is discouraging skilled Canadians from coming to the U.S., while chasing other skilled immigrants north of the border.Â
Further Trump Consequences Reading: Trumpâs plan to [bring manufacturing back to the U.S.]( is mostly failing. â Michael SchumanÂ
Time for Some Game Theory: Boris Johnson Edition
Across the pond, Boris Johnson â âBritain Trump,â as America Trump calls him â has promised to drag the U.K. out of the European Union, âdo or die.â Mohamed El-Erian suggests Johnsonâs believable willingness to risk what could be a disastrous no-deal Brexit [makes him likelier to succeed]( at wringing concessions from Europe than Theresa May was. After all, Europe would suffer too if Britain crashed out of the union. Lionel Laurent is skeptical, though; nobody in Europe much likes Johnson or wants to give him any breaks, and they see a no-deal Brexit as too self-destructive and difficult to jam through U.K. parliament. Lionel sees [more Brexit delay and uncertainty ahead](.Â
Further BoJo Decision Reading: Iran is [asking too much to release]( a British oil tanker. Johnson should resist. â Bobby GhoshÂ
Telltale Charts
Mario Draghi was [not nearly hawkish enough for markets]( today, writes Marcus Ashworth, raising the risk of European recession.
Further Reading
Before he retires, Draghi must explain the [ECBâs handling of Monte Paschi](. â Elisa Martinuzzi
A cost study finds a [new fish-oil-based heart drug]( might be dramatically, wait for it, underpriced. â Max NisenÂ
Xi Jinping's China [has a lot of problems](. - George Magnus, Shuli Ren and John Authers
Moodyâs Corp. seems to realize [climate risks arenât just reputational]( but physical and financial. â Leonid BershidskyÂ
A Democratic bill to [shore up Social Security by raising taxes]( has got it backwards. â Ramesh PonnuruÂ
[Space exploration needs]( the private sector. â Michael StrainÂ
ICYMI
Jeffrey Epstein was [found injured in his cell](.
Barclays CEO Jes Staley has [an Epstein problem](.
Mohammed bin Salmanâs [$500 billion megacity project]( shudders back to life.
Kickers
Irish moon-landing stamp [spells âmoonâ wrong](. (h/t James Greiff)
Archaeologists discover [proof of the 1099 siege of Jerusalem](. (h/t Scott Kominers)
Undead tree [stump kept alive]( by neighboring trees.
Baldness may [soon be obsolete]( (for the rich).
Note:Â Please send stamps and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.
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