Are we going to war with Iran or not?

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - Trump must [clarify his Iran policy](. - Don’t count on a [Trump-Xi trade breakthrough](. - The Fed is ignoring its [long-term challenges](. - Libra could [cause a currency war](, if [it ever works](. Trump’s Fog of Iran War America either is or is not sliding toward war with Iran, depending on the time of day, prevailing winds and relative hangriness of whoever happens to be making the War Decisions at the moment. For example, President Donald Trump today ominously [warned]( we would soon “find out” if the U.S. will strike Iran for shooting down an American drone, ratcheting up already high tensions between the two nations. Soon after, though, he also seemed to [dismiss]( the incident as an understandable goof by “a general or somebody”. This [confusion is of a piece with Trump’s whole approach]( to Iran, in which Mike Pompeo, John Bolton, Trump himself and others keep jumping on and off stage to deliver mixed messages about the administration’s goals, Bloomberg’s editorial board writes. The upcoming G-20 meeting is a perfect opportunity for Trump to lay out clearly what he wants from Tehran and, presumably, that he does not want war. U.S. Navy ships might already be in the Persian Gulf protecting oil tankers, a handful of which have been attacked there in recent months, if this were 1987. That was the year of the Tanker War, when Iran attacked scores of tankers and President Reagan considered the threat to the global oil market dire enough to act, writes Liam Denning. We may yet see Navy escorts, but the [Trump administration isn’t in a huge hurry](, Liam notes. A lot has changed in the oil business in 32 years, particularly the fact that the U.S. no longer needs so much of it from the Middle East. That dubious honor now goes to Asian economies, which may soon feel the sting if tensions keep rising or turn into something worse. Trade Truce No Sure Thing The G-20 summit will also be a chance for Trump to cool down a second conflict: the trade war with China. He plans to meet with Xi Jinping there, inspiring fresh hopes for a trade truce. Those may be misplaced, warns Tom Orlik. The [risks of not making a deal keep shrinking]( for both sides, Tom warns; in fact, Trump may see increasing benefits to keeping hostilities with China alive. A prolonged trade war would be particularly bad news for America’s big retail brands, which face higher costs and lower sales as a result, writes Sarah Halzack. They have been quietly protesting through trade groups, but Sarah suggests [it’s about time they become far more vocal](. The risk of fighting Trump keeps turning out to not be very high, and the rewards here could be significant. The Fed’s Missing the Big Picture Stocks had a delayed-reaction party to celebrate the Fed’s capitulation yesterday, taking the S&P 500 to a [new record]( (momentarily derailed by Trump’s on-again/off-again Iran-war act). Only a massively strong June jobs report will [sway the Fed from cutting rates in July](, writes Tim Duy. And that’s great, sort of, but it also doesn’t address the Fed’s long-term problem of how to conduct monetary policy in an era of persistently super-low inflation and interest rates, writes Bloomberg's editorial board. The Fed is supposed to be thinking deep thoughts about this, but [its work product is disappointing so far](. It’s almost as if being constantly harassed by Trump and impatient markets is a distraction. Further Fed Reading: The Fed is setting the stage for [gold’s rally to keep going](. – David Fickling Facebook, Currency Warrior Dovish central banks around the world have raised worries of a new currency war, that thing where countries weaken their currencies to boost their exports. Maybe what we should really fear, currency-wise, is Facebook Inc., which plans to launch its own currency, called Libra. If this takes off, warns Andy Mukherjee, then it could [genuinely threaten the utility of many Asian currencies](, causing governments to launch their own crypto competitors. For better or worse, this is a distant threat, because [Libra doesn’t work at all right now](, writes Elaine Ou. She’s read the white paper and technical details and found it’s nowhere close to ready for prime time. Instead, Facebook’s launch this week seems designed more to suss out regulatory reaction than to spark immediate development. Telltale Charts Russian incomes can’t stop falling, which helps explain why [Vladimir Putin is losing popularity](, writes Leonid Bershidsky, who notes Putin did himself no favors this week with a tin-eared call-in show. Further Reading Boris Johnson is almost [certainly about to get his dream job](, but to keep it he’ll have to be much more serious. – Therese Raphael Narendra Modi wants [India to be a $5 trillion economy]( in five years, but it’s in no way not ready for that. – Mihir Sharma The benefits of a [financial-transaction tax far outweigh]( any costs. – Michael Edesess The market’s appetite for the [CCC-rated subordinated Greek bank debt]( shows just how desperate people are for yield. – Marcus Ashworth and Elisa Martinuzzi General Electric Co. is [trying to be more transparent](; it’s just not very good at it. – Brooke Sutherland Slack Technologies Inc., which went public today, [pitches to workers first](. – Shira Ovide The Supreme Court seems to be settling on a [compromise over religious-themed monuments](: Old ones can stay, new ones must go. – Noah Feldman ICYMI Icelandic [tourism has collapsed](. Modern buildings are [the opposite of green](. Ever wanted to borrow a Led Zeppelin riff? [Now’s your chance](. Kickers A [working solar sail]( may go into orbit next week. (h/t Scott Kominers) Found wallets with more cash are [more likely to be returned](, a study has shown. To [be more creative](, cheer up. Italians [have all the secrets]( to living well. Note: Please send riffs and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022