Mueller to Congress: It's on you now

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - Mueller’s coded [call for impeachment]( could be a [gift to Trump](, if Democrats [let it be](. - The stock market must [beware the tax-cut payback](. - Canaries in the global economic coal mine are [starting to fall](. - Trump should push to [end a blockade of Qatar](. Mueller Speaks After two years of Trappist-level silence, now-retiring special counsel Robert Mueller finally [spoke words]( in public – to basically reiterate what he wrote in the [report]( he released two months ago. Still, the text and context of Mueller’s words were damning as to President Donald Trump’s conduct and his self-serving conspiracy theory that he is the victim of a Deep-State Witch Hunt, writes Jonathan Bernstein. Mueller’s remarks were also [a call to Congress to act, probably via impeachment](, to hold Trump accountable for obstruction of justice, a charge Mueller said Justice Department policy barred him (no pun intended) from bringing. But Democrats in Congress won’t (and maybe shouldn’t, in Jonathan’s view) impeach Trump, mainly because Senate Republicans keep protecting him, and Dems fear the political blowback. And Mueller’s own silence, and the delicate phrasing of his report and statement today, [are golden gifts to Trump](, writes Noah Feldman. Mueller’s principled reticence lets an unprincipled president claim vindication – as he and his handlers rushed to do today – safe in the knowledge Mueller won’t directly and emphatically rebut him. Such flagrant denial is par for the course of Trump’s career, writes Tim O’Brien. Neither shame nor Mueller’s careful wording will make him change. That's another argument, Tim writes, for why [Democrats in Congress must “decide]( whether they exist to win elections or to uphold the old-fashioned principle that everybody – including the president – should obey the law.” After the Tax Cuts, the Payback Wall Street expected the 2017 tax cuts to be a piñata filled with delicious candy, but the haul has been modest so far – and soon corporate America will have to give some of those treats back. Stephen Gandel points out the tax bill’s inducements to companies to boost spending haven’t really done as much inducing as hoped. And while the stock market rallied hard before and after the tax cuts, the road since hasn’t been so smooth: The news gets worse: To help cut the cost of the tax bill, Congress built in some rollbacks starting in 2022, which [could cost corporate America $800 billion in profits]( over 10 years, Steve writes. Especially hard-hit will be companies that do a lot of R&D – such as market-leading tech darlings. Trade War Canaries Start to Fall U.S. stocks [fell again]( today, as they continue to warm up to the whole trade-war-is-bad thing. You sometimes hear bafflement that U.S. markets worry at all about the damage of Trump’s trade war. Everything seems fine here, they say. But overseas the cracks are starting to show. Australia and New Zealand, for example, were early indicators of trouble back in 2007, notes David Fickling. He’s probably not happy to report [they’re showing signs of trouble again](. If those relatively strong economies are struggling, then you can bet [developing ones are even more exposed](, particularly to weakness in China, as Komal Sri-Kumar writes. And the U.S. isn’t poised to win much from this trade war unless it [bolsters the capabilities of China’s exporting rivals]( such as Vietnam, writes Conor Sen. It could also take a look at its own deficient infrastructure and gridlocked government – weaknesses China doesn’t share. The trade war will most hurt small countries, such as Singapore and Pakistan, caught in the middle, writes Tyler Cowen. The longer it drags on, the [likelier they will side against the U.S.](, Tyler warns, weakening America’s soft power. And then there’s the very outside, but non-zero, risk that trade war leads to war war. We’ve seen it before, writes James Gibney, when an American hard line on [trade helped push Japan into World War II](. Middle East Diplomacy The Trump administration has many diplomatic irons in the fire, particularly in the Middle East. One key ally there, Saudi Arabia, has been locked in a bitter dispute with another, Qatar, for nearly two years. The U.S. should [push to end a long blockade of Qatar](, Bloomberg’s editorial board writes, so it can present a more-united Arab front against Iran. Speaking of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei claims he won’t negotiate under pressure, but [Iran has done so before](, Dennis Ross writes. Meanwhile, Palestinian leaders have rejected any involvement in a Trump administration plan to [pitch the Palestinian people on trading sovereignty]( for economic comfort, Zev Chafets writes – but Trump’s ploy just might work. Bonus Diplomacy Reading: Mike [Pompeo should visit Sudan]( to help get it back on track to democracy. – Eli Lake Telltale Charts America’s [rural populations are truly shrinking](, not just moving up to the big time by turning into “metropolitan areas,” writes Justin Fox. Luxury conglomerate Capri Holdings Ltd. can’t enjoy Versace and Jimmy Choo as long as its biggest holding, [Michael Kors, keeps being terrible](, notes Sarah Halzack. Further Reading The U.S. and Germany don’t appreciate their [extraordinary economic privileges](. – Chris Bryant Though Greek bank stocks are rallying, [Greek bank problems]( haven’t gone away. – Elisa Martinuzzi Treasury [yields are plunging]( partly because traders realize the end game, sooner or later, is interest rates staying lower for longer. – Brian Chappatta The [age of the deepfake]( is upon us, as the Nancy Pelosi “drunk” video revealed. – Cass Sunstein ICYMI Mitch McConnell has a [new Supreme Court vacancy take]( for 2020. China may [weaponize rare earths]( in the trade war. An Ethiopian pilot [warned of 737 Max danger](. Kickers Is this the first-ever [photo of an albino panda](? (h/t Scott Kominers) Grateful to be alive? [Thank a fungus](. FINALLY, we know how long it takes your [body to pass a Lego](. There are [two types of airport people](. Note: Please send fungi and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022