Tweets won’t stop this oil-price spike

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - Geopolitical risks, from [Tripoli]( to [Tehran](, will soon push oil prices higher. - GE hasn’t [earned your optimism](. - Nuclear anxiety has [gotten a reboot](, but our [arsenal needs updating](. - A China [trade deal won’t end]( tensions. Rising Pressures at the Pump Here’s a prediction: Some time in the next few months, President Donald Trump will tweet something angry about oil prices. The president fired off many angry tweets at OPEC about oil last year, and prices eventually swooned for various reasons. But they have lately bounced back to levels that get Trump’s thumbs moving. His [latest missive]( was relatively polite (ending with a cheery “Thank you!”). But that could change soon. For one thing, the [threat of violence is rising in Libya](, just as oil production there was finally getting off the mat from the overthrow of Moammar Qaddafi in 2011, writes Julian Lee. Along with Venezuela slowly murdering its own oil industry, Iranian sanctions, OPEC+ production cuts, and other trouble spots, any disruption of Libyan exports would send prices back through the roof, Julian warns. Trump has some control over at least one factor affecting oil prices, though he may not like the implications. Last year he gave a bunch of waivers letting countries buy Iranian oil without facing U.S. sanctions. Those waivers are due to expire soon, Julian Lee notes in a second column. Letting them [lapse would only push oil prices]( even higher; Julian guesses he won’t let that happen. Further Energy Reading: The IEA has to be careful; its [energy forecasts for 2040]( can mold reality in 2020. – Liam Denning Further Libya Reading: Libyan rebel General Khalifa Haftar is [a Vladimir Putin pet project](, one of a string of risky Russian gambits around the world. – Leonid Bershidsky We Just Can’t Quit You, GE Maybe we just can’t give up on the idea of General Electric Co. as an American corporate legend. For whatever reason, investors keep [giving the company the benefit of the doubt](, and it keeps disappointing them, writes Brooke Sutherland. The stock tumbled 7 percent today, after a closely watched Wall Street analyst slapped it with a “sell” rating, just a few months after he sparked a rally by upgrading it briefly to “hold.” Brooke points out you really didn’t need an analyst to see problems with, say, GE’s cash flow or management’s argument that its businesses are recession-proof. “Optimism is a right this company hasn’t yet earned,” she writes. Further Industrial Reading: - Boeing Co.’s 737 Max production cuts [ramp up the pressure on the company]( and its suppliers. – Brooke Sutherland - This seems like a good time to remind you that Brooke puts out a weekly newsletter, “Industrial Insights,” with more of these, well, insights about industrials. [Here’s a sample](. You can write Brooke at bsutherland7@bloomberg.net to get on the list. Another Bad ‘80s Reboot Since the Cold War ended, the world has whittled away at its stockpile of nuclear weapons. It’s still high, but now only enough to destroy the world a few thousand times over: But as with everything else these days, the Cold War has gotten a reboot; only now the U.S. has two antagonists: China and Russia. That, along with the threat of smaller nuclear powers and rogue agents, means we have to start [thinking about preventing nuclear war again](, writes Toby Harshaw. As with the Cold War, we’ll need to combine the threat of nuclear deterrence with a push for disarmament, write Bloomberg’s editorial board. But the U.S. also must [rethink and upgrade its arsenal](. Big, world-ending ICBMs should be scrapped, for example, while the ability to launch less-destructive, targeted strikes should be strengthened, the editors write. Bonus Editorial: Nigeria needs [faster economic reform]( to slow its rapid rise in extreme poverty. Curb Your China-Deal Enthusiasm For a while now, markets have hung on every up and down in U.S. trade negotiations with China. It makes sense; a full-fledged trade war would devastate both economies, and mere tensions have been bad enough. But Mohamed El-Erian suggests the trade deal likely coming soon will be [just the first in a series of negotiations](. For one thing, the U.S. left Europe out of these talks, even though the two share grievances and could have brought more leverage against Beijing. That will probably have to wait for some future round of negotiations. Buckle up. Further China Reading: China’s big, rich [sovereign wealth fund has been quiet]( lately. Its new leader probably can’t change that. – Nisha Gopalan Telltale Charts Don’t sweat the yield curve inversion because [this time is different](, write Myron Scholes and Ash Alankar. Frenzied demand for [Saudi Aramco’s new bond offering]( means it’s in for a sweet deal, writes Marcus Ashworth. Further Reading Kirstjen Nielsen’s departure leaves [Trump’s cabinet historically bare](, and a key question is whether he’s emptied it on purpose or is just incompetent. Either way, it leaves him unusually weak. – Jonathan Bernstein Remainers might feel happy about the odds of a soft Brexit, or a long delay, or no Brexit at all happening; but [this will only fuel the anger and trouble-making]( of the Brexiteers. – Therese Raphael Venezuela is [spreading the misery of its public-health crisis]( throughout the hemisphere. – Mac Margolis History suggests redistribution alone [won’t make a lasting dent]( in inequality. – Noah Smith When Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV [pays Tesla Inc. to help it cover]( its EU carbon-emissions debt, everybody wins. – Chris Bryant ICYMI Trump axed his [Secret Service chief]( too. New pickup trucks [cost too much](. The [great Sriracha battle]( is coming to America. Kickers Don’t tell the Hamburglar: A [McDonald’s menu loophole]( gives you free hamburgers (h/t Scott Kominers) Making [pierogi at home is hard]( but worth it. Meet [cyberchondriacs](: people who google their symptoms all day. Ranking the [top 25 villains]( in “Game of Thrones” history. Note: Please send pierogi and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022