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Big German banks, stumbling, decide to get bigger

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Mon, Mar 18, 2019 08:36 PM

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Today’s Agenda - Germany’s won’t help. - Trump’s rhetoric . - There has never be

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - Germany’s [desperate banking deal]( won’t help. - Trump’s rhetoric [could be impeachable](. - There has never been a better [time to stop Brexiting](. - Putin is still [paying for taking Crimea](. Germany’s Big Banking Deal Forcing one basket case to marry another basket case usually just results in an exponentially larger basket case. Nevertheless, Europe’s biggest economy is about to try to make this work, with banks. With government encouragement, troubled German bank Deutsche Bank AG is talking about merging with troubled German bank Commerzbank AG, to form a Mecha Godzilla of troubled German banking. If [this sounds like desperation to you, then you are right]( – although it’s also sadly the best option available to both banks, writes Elisa Martinuzzi. A cross-border deal would be better, but Europe has never set up the financial plumbing to make that easy (or to, say, [effectively fight money-laundering](, Lionel Laurent notes). So a German national champion it will be – but one that will still have to deal with negative interest rates, a lack of pricing power and massive costs, among other problems, Elisa writes. To address that massive-cost part, a merged bank would probably need to lay off enough people to fill up more than half of the Commerzbank-Arena soccer [stadium]( in Frankfurt. But [that is almost certainly not going to happen](, given the strength of unions in Germany and the political risks involved, Leonid Bershidsky writes. So the inefficiencies dogging both banks will remain. Meanwhile, more European banks will be [merging with crosstown rivals](, to little effect, Elisa Martinuzzi writes in a second column. Further European Banking Reading: - Here’s a closer look at [Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank by the numbers](. – Elaine He and Elisa Martinuzzi - Deutsche Bank must sell its asset-management arm, but [some want it to merge with Allianz](, which makes little sense. – Mark Gilbert Trump’s Tweetstorms Matter By now many of us think of President Donald Trump’s tweeting like the weather in a different country – it’s happening, but we can ignore it. Every now and then it builds up to hurricane force, though, as it did this weekend, when Trump attacked Google, General Motors Co., “Saturday Night Live,” Fox News and John McCain, to name a few. Some of his rhetoric – from his stoking of racial tensions to his implied threats of regulatory action against “Saturday Night Live” and others for making fun of him – is an abuse of power, writes Jonathan Bernstein, and [could be fodder for impeachment](. As for that “SNL” threat, [it probably wouldn’t stand up in court](, writes Noah Feldman. Trump’s complaints about late-night comedy seem based on outdated understandings of “fairness” and “equal time” in broadcast media, Noah writes. Further Trump Rhetoric  Reading: - Auto makers [should ignore Trump’s tweets]( when making business decisions. – Anjani Trivedi - Don’t just blame Trump for the Christchurch massacre; blame [Australia’s long history of white nationalism](. – Pankaj Mishra Time for a Break From Brexit Theresa May’s dreams of holding a third colossally unsuccessful vote on her unloved Brexit deal were [dashed]( today by the U.K.’s [entertaining]( Speaker of the House of Commons, who said she must change her deal “fundamentally” before bringing it back. As such a change is unlikely, May will probably ask the EU for an extension of the May 29 Brexit deadline. If Britain’s leaders knew what was good for them, they would [cancel the Brexit process and lay the groundwork]( for a second referendum, Bloomberg’s editorial board writes. Ah, but that’s a big “if.” Bonus Editorials: - Sure, Fox News is biased, but the [Democrats should still let Fox host a debate](, for a rare chance to break through to this cloistered, misled audience. - There’s a right way and a wrong way to [fight fake news](. In Hindsight, Taking the Crimea Was a Mistake It's been five years since Vladimir Putin tied a bow on his nearly bloodless, consequence-free annexation of Crimea. This little adventure went so well for him that he decided to take half of Ukraine next – the first in [a series of blunders that have left Putin friendless even at home](, writes Leonid Bershidsky. It all started with that supposedly easy Crimea conquest, which made Putin think he was invincible. Now Russia’s credibility will be irreparable as long as Putin remains in power, Leonid writes. Telltale Charts Algeria joins Angola, Iran, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela, to form [a “Shaky Six” of OPEC members]( suffering from involuntary production cuts, writes Julian Lee. Lyft Inc. just gave us more numbers, but still [no indication of whether it’s a viable business]( for the long run, notes Shira Ovide. Further Reading All signs point to a [recession and a bear market coming within the year](, even if they aren’t unusually devastating. – Gary Shilling China hasn’t fully [disclosed the depth of its bad-bank problem](. – Christopher Balding Iraq’s government is [dragging its feet on rebuilding the country](, giving new life to Islamic State. – Bobby Ghosh Apple Inc. and Spotify are [both to blame]( in their spat with each other. – Shira Ovide Cheating and legacy admissions help [privileged whites keep a stranglehold]( on top-tier colleges. – Noah Smith A Green New Deal [won’t be global enough to affect climate change](; we need a Green Marshall Plan. – Mihir Sharma Reparations are [morally right but politically toxic](. But it’s a discussion we must have. – Frank Wilkinson Please [stop confusing me with Theresa May](. – Therese Raphael Kickers Vermont town’s [new goat mayor]( is not baaad so far. (h/t Zoe DeStories) Elite [stud racing pigeon]( sells for $1.4 million. (h/t Mike Smedley) Butter and meat keep [amazingly well in peat bogs](, as ancient people in Ireland and Scotland knew millennia ago. (h/t Scott Kominers) Zion Williamson will soon [change NCAA basketball history](. Guides to March Madness, from [FiveThirtyEight]( and [The Ringer](. Note: Please send bog butter and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. 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