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Todayâs Agenda
- [Elizabeth Warren]( makes a [modest Big Tech proposal](.
- The jobs report sends a [worrying signal](.
- The Shine is [out of the White House](.
- [Norway tiptoes]( out of [oil and gas](.
- A bad China trade deal may be [worse than none](.
Bust Up Big Tech?
Unless your name is [Tim Apple](, Mark Facebook or Jeff Amazon, you probably [think]( Big Tech has too much power lately. But what to do about it?
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is running for president, today [called]( for breaking up Amazon.com Inc., Facebook Inc. and Alphabet Inc.âs Google to fight their growing market might. This was music to Joe Noceraâs ears, as he has been [calling for]( something [like this]( for a while. But it also makes Joe hope Warren [stays in the Senate instead of becoming president](, because it will take somebody smart like her in Congress to help a different future Democratic president turn this idea into law.Â
Republicans run both the Senate and the White House, meaning Big Tech breakups are probably not imminent (though President Donald Trumpâs Federal Trade Commission is [looking]( into it). Conor Sen suggests busting these trusts might not be realistic anyway; but one Warren proposal â making it harder for Amazon to use its power to squeeze third-party sellers â is a good idea. [Limiting tech behemoths, rather than splitting them](, might be enough to spur competition, Conor writes.Â
Mind the Unemployment Rate
The February jobs report was [not very good](. Payrolls grew by just 22,000 jobs, much less than expected. But these data are revised beyond recognition, so we can ignore them. The unemployment rate is more reliable, and that fell to 3.8 percent from 4 percent. But even that isnât so great because, as Justin Fox notes, it has been more or less 3.8 percent for nearly a year. On a three-month rolling average, in fact, it has edged up, Justin notes:
Gulp! This is bad because [recessions have followed every unemployment bottom]( since World War II, Justin writes. Itâs too early to say unemployment has bottomed this time, but it bears watching.
That said, the job market under President Donald Trump has mostly remained as strong as it was before his election â though [miners and psychiatrists are having an especially]( good time, writes Mark Whitehouse:
Another One Bites the Dust
The furiously revolving door of Trumpâs White House today [spit out](Â Bill Shine, who had spent roughly eight months as communications director. He was the fifth lucky soul to hold the position in two years. And though he seemed uniquely suited for it, having already propagandized for Trump at Fox News, he [couldnât spit-shine the many flaws]( of the guy in charge, writes Tim OâBrien. Trump is a terrible manager who canât hire good people and canât stop creating PR nightmares, and yet demands hagiography beyond even what Fox can deliver, Tim notes. White House employees keep vanishing at a record rate.Â
Norwayâs Slow Paradigm Shift
In a sign of changing global attitudes about fossil fuels, a giant oil producer is diversifying, a bit. Norway is among the worldâs top 20 oil-producing countries and has an equally important state-owned oil company in Equinor ASA. Black gold has helped it build a $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund, but its government today said it will dump some of its oil and gas stocks. Even this limited divestiture is great news, writes Mark Gilbert, though he argues it [should sell even more and reinvest]( the proceeds in renewable energy. And Liam Denning writes the companies targeted for sale [wonât move the needle much on Norwayâs]( fossil-fuel investments. Change is coming, but not quickly enough.
Hasty China Deals
With the global economy slowing and the 2020 election approaching, Trump seems eager to bang out a trade deal with China, even if itâs a shallow one, and Michael Schuman writes Xi Jinping has his own political reasons to make such a deal. But a [surface-level agreement will only guarantee its eventual failure]( and lead to even higher tensions, Michael warns.Â
One beneficiary here might be Tesla Inc.: The electric-car maker is getting big, generous loans to build a gigafactory in China, which could be seen as a peace offering to Washington. Anjani Trivedi writes this could cost the American company, though, given Chinaâs record with intellectual property. And there are domestic companies, such as Nio Inc., that [could really use the money instead](.Â
Further China Reading:Â
- New data suggest Chinaâs economic growth [hasnât been as strong as we thought](. â Dan MossÂ
- As stock markets in developed countries stagnate, [mainland China is rife with opportunities]( for adventurous investors. â Shuli RenÂ
Telltale Charts
Maybe Congress just [needs more lawyers](, suggests Justin Fox.
Weâre getting [stock buybacks all wrong](; theyâre mainly how companies cover compensation, writes Stephen Gandel.
Further Reading
The [ECB doesnât have much ammo]( left to fight a recession. Europe must get its act together so fiscal policy can do the heavy lifting. â Bloombergâs editorial board
The Trump administrationâs plan for âopportunity zones,â giving tax breaks for investing in impoverished areas, is good, but we must [make sure itâs not abused](. â Bloombergâs editorial boardÂ
Before rushing into a desperate merger with Commerzbank, [Deutsche Bank still has levers]( to pull. â Elisa MartinuzziÂ
The Left shouldnât be [so quick to dismiss neoliberals](. â Noah SmithÂ
Wall Street hates it, but a [financial transaction tax may be the perfect tax](; it will raise revenue, discourage speculation and cost society almost nothing. â Douglas Cliggott
Indiaâs election + Pakistanâs weak economy + 300 nuclear missiles = [a brewing nightmare](. â James StavridisÂ
Wall Street hasnât figured out [how to trade Modern Monetary Theory](. â Brian ChappattaÂ
It's time to [let 16-year-olds vote](. â Jonathan BernsteinÂ
ICYMI
The [SALT cap probably]( isn't going away. Theresa May warns [Brexit may not happen](. Hong Kongâs so expensive, people are [living in steel boxes](.
Kickers
Ancient, massive sturgeon may be [returning to the Hudson River](. (h/t Scott Kominers)
We wonât even be able to [escape the Internet]( by fleeing to another planet. (h/t Liam Denning)
The theft that [rocked the Star Wars toy-collecting]( community. (h/t Joel Brill)
[Bad dreams are good]( for you.
[Photos of the week](.
Note: Please send sturgeon and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.
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