The job market is finally (mostly) fixed

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - We may be at [full employment](. - Trump’s a [bad manager](. - Analysts [blew it on Kraft Heinz](. - Spare a thought for [German billionaires](. Labor Market Finally Unbroken It’s amazing how many problems a long economic recovery can solve. For years after the Great Recession, economists and normal humans alike wondered what the heck was wrong with the job market. Labor-force participation was weak, while wage growth was anemic. But maybe all it needed was time: There’s evidence that a decade of steady-ish [growth has finally healed the labor market](, writes Noah Smith. And it seems much of that labor-force participation gap can be chalked up to relatively well-off baby boomers retiring early: Put it all together, Noah writes, and the economy seems finally to have hit full employment. But the Federal Reserve shouldn’t rush to cool it down, because one last key piece — wage growth — still hasn’t caught up, Noah adds. But the [Fed’s next move will likely be another rate hike](, former New York Fed President Bill Dudley warns. Stocks have rallied partly on the belief the Fed is done tightening policy for this cycle. And the Fed may wait a few months to raise rates, but the economy is stronger than the market thinks, Bill argues. Trump’s Management Problems For better or worse, President Donald Trump is letting John Bolton run roughshod over his foreign policy, writes Jonathan Bernstein. Maybe Bolton’s ideas and instincts are fine. But a president needs neutral brokers running policy and refereeing competing ideas, while Bolton plainly has an agenda, Jonathan writes. This raises the odds of a policy mistake, and it’s another sign of [Trump’s unusual weakness as a manager]( and president, Jonathan adds. Trump does get credit for hiring FDA chief Scott Gottlieb, though he is now leaving, after less than two years on the job. He’s one of the few Trump appointees to exit with a better reputation than when he began. Max Nisen notes [he took smart, aggressive steps to curb runaway drug prices]( while keeping Big Pharma more or less on his side with faster drug approvals. (One fruit of the latter approach is the approval of Johnson & Johnson’s ketamine-like depression drug; Max, in a separate column, writes [it could help a lot of patients](, though it likely won’t be a blockbuster.) Anyway, Trump’s drug-price policy is one of the few areas winning bipartisan praise, and Gottlieb deserves much of the credit. Further Trump reading: Trump can’t do much to [dodge the House probes]( into his affairs. – Noah Feldman Great Calls, Guys Wall Street analysts have a tough job. They must serve clients while keeping the companies they cover from throwing them out of conference calls. The “Great quarter, guys!” enthusiasm that occasionally follows is too easy to mock. But every now and then, their conflicts and failings become impossible to ignore. Take Kraft Heinz Co.: Overly optimistic Wall Street [analysts may have cost investors $18 billion]( in losses by overlooking the honking klaxons of trouble at that company, estimates Tara Lachapelle. She (along with a couple of bolder analysts) saw the packaged-food maker’s problems coming for a while. Somehow the rest of the pack didn’t. Hold the Schadenfreude We produce a lot of fine content here at Bloomberg Opinion, but even for us, a headline like “[Struggling German Family Is Down to Its Last $16 Billion](” is a rare gem. Written by James Boxell to match a stellar Chris Bryant column, the headline has inspired a lot of readership and laughs, but behind it is a story of tectonic shifts in global industry that should make more than just German billionaires nervous. The Schaeffler family of the headline makes ball bearings and other car and factory parts, and its once-unbeatable business model is being upended by the rise of automation and the electric car. It won’t be the last German industrial family to suffer, Chris notes, and other companies around the world have to worry, too. Telltale Charts As Brooke Sutherland predicted, General Electric Co.’s [cash flow will likely turn negative]( this year, which the company has been frustratingly reluctant to admit. Lyft Inc.’s IPO filing touted a rising “take rate” — supposedly a rough guide to profitability. But Shira Ovide writes this rate isn’t what it used to be, making it [a shaky gauge for investors]( not only in Lyft, but also in soon-to-IPO rival Uber. Girls have always been better at school than boys, but [boys kept the edge in wages](. That’s starting to change, Justin Fox writes. Further Reading Jason Furman and Larry Summers claim there’s too much worry about budget deficits; in fact, [there’s not enough](. – Bloomberg’s editorial board Tesla Inc. employees and investors may be freaking out about its store closings. But [Tesla is the perfect test case]( for the viability of selling cars online. – Scott Duke Kominers A hedge-fund manager is trying to [shape Charlottesville, Virginia](, in his own image. What will get lost in the process?  – Joe Nocera [Goldman Sachs has a new dress code](, but maybe don’t grab those jeans just yet. – Matt Levine [India should drop its protectionism]( if it wants a stake in global trade, while the U.S. should realize India can be an ally against China. – Mihir Sharma A Saudi app [accused of tracking women]( actually gives them greater ease of movement under restrictive guardianship laws. – Khawla Al-Kuraya ICYMI The [trade deficit is the highest]( in a decade. R. Kelly is [very upset](. Kylie Jenner is [very rich](. Kickers It won’t be so easy to [blow up an incoming asteroid](. (h/t Mike Smedley) A new way to imagine cities: as [mountains of light](. (h/t Ellen Kominers) Archaeologists open a [1,000-year-old Mayan ritual cave system](. What could possibly etc.? The [10 happiest days on the Internet]( this decade. Correction: Yesterday's letter had an incorrect link to Leonid Bershidsky's column on [making everybody's tax returns public](. Note: Please send ritual offerings and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022