Don’t drink and negotiate Brexit at the same time, folks

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - Hard [Brexit realities]( are [setting in](. - Trump’s about to [take an L on trade]( too. - Santander [rocks the CoCo]( world, or [does it](? - Why can’t Apple be [more like HBO](? Getting Real About Brexit From the start, Brexit has been marked by fantasy and deception. Now, with Britain on the doorstep of leaving the EU, reality is setting in. Yesterday we noted [U.K. economic data]( finally reflect anxiety about a no-deal Brexit. And then we learned Theresa May’s top Brexit negotiator, Olly Robbins, was overheard in a Brussels bar contradicting his boss’s negotiating positions. May says she'll let a no-deal Brexit disaster happen if she doesn’t get her way, for example, but Robbins admitted she would never do such a thing. Lesson: Don’t drink and negotiate, kids! But these and other key admissions are [simple acknowledgements of reality](, writes Therese Raphael, and they clarify where negotiations are headed. Too bad May hasn’t simply been straightforward all along, Therese writes. One key Brexit delusion was that an independent U.K. would become Singapore on the Thames – a hub of finance and trade milking money from the globe. [This was always a fantasy](, writes Linda Lim. The things that made Singapore successful either can’t be replicated in the U.K., are anathema to Brexiters (high immigration, say), or come with nasty downsides (high inequality, say). The Brexit reality won’t be nearly as pretty as the dream. Trump’s Losing Streak to Continue President Donald Trump is [reportedly set]( to sign a border-security deal to avert a government shutdown, giving him a lot less than he wants or could have had in various rejected deals last year. It’s hard to call this anything but a loss for him. It may soon be followed by another, writes Jonathan Bernstein. Congress must approve his trade deal replacing Nafta, but he may not have the votes. The inadequacies behind [Trump’s border-wall fiasco could sink his trade deal too](, Jonathan warns: A president who doesn’t understand or care to learn about issues lacks the staff to help him and sees threats as his only negotiating tactic. Sound familiar? This is the latest example of Trump’s remarkable inability to learn on the job, Jonathan writes. Further Political Reading: A new bill to [do away with pensions for lawmakers]( would create an array of bad incentives. – Jonathan Bernstein No CoCo Redemption For You! Spanish bank Banco Santander SA shocked the financial world yesterday by deciding not to pay back contingent convertible (“CoCo”) securities, a form of capital banks use that is sort of like equity but also sort of like debt. This just isn’t done (even though it is fully legal); and though Santander may have saved itself a bit of money, [it will pay a high price in its own credibility](, and other banks will have to pay more for such capital, warns Marcus Ashworth. Matt Levine has [no sympathy for the investors](, though, noting this outcome is always a risk with CoCos; it says so right on the label. And being able to not redeem CoCos makes them the kind of flexible financing regulators say they want banks to have, Matt writes. Further Spanish Market Reading: Bond investors aren’t [worrying about the political turmoil in Spain]( yet, thanks to how much more Spanish bonds yield than German bunds. – Marcus Ashworth Apple’s Video Ambitions Because it invented the iPod and the iPhone and other such groundbreaking stuff, it’s easy to think every new Apple Inc. venture must be industry-rupturing to succeed. Its upcoming streaming-video service may bear the burden of such high expectations. But what if, Shira Ovide posits, [Apple succeeds by simply being normal](? Instead of building a Netflix Inc. killer, maybe Apple can win by simply being … HBO. That won’t change any games or Apple’s revenue profile, but it would be boringly profitable, Shira writes. Further Big Tech Reading: U.K. regulators might have stumbled on an [effective method for protecting publishers]( against the online-ad dominance of Facebook Inc. and Google. – Alex Webb Telltale Charts Activist investors claim they want to improve the companies they target. If that’s so, Stephen Gandel asks, then why are they [so terrible at nominating women to boards](, which studies repeatedly show boosts corporate performance? Regulatory approval of a T-Mobile US Inc./Sprint Corp. merger is [still unusually up in the air](, writes Tara Lachapelle. Further Reading The World Bank leadership vacancy is a chance to [rethink the bank’s purpose](. Maybe it should focus more on projects the private sector won’t finance, for example, including those fighting climate change. – Bloomberg’s editorial board Germany’s version of the [Green New Deal is actually working well](. – Leonid Bershidsky If we [raise taxes on the rich too much](, then they might flee to Canada. – Noah Smith Performance [bonuses keep failing to make teachers happy]( or improve outcomes. We need to raise base pay instead. – Andrea Gabor Foreign investors are tiptoeing into [Chinese bonds just as defaults rise](. But beware: Ratings agencies will be no help in figuring out the risks. – Nisha Gopalan In the 40 years since the Iranian revolution, its [women keep showing you can’t count them out](. – Kristin Batmanghelichi Japan [needs more women in the work force](, but it also needs to make it easier for them to have children. – Nobuko Kobayashi ICYMI Why [new apartment buildings]( all look the same. Lawyer in charge of insider-trading policy [accused of insider trading](. RIP [Mars Opportunity rover](. Kickers So it begins: [Chimps build makeshift ladder]( to escape from zoo. (h/t Zoe DeStories) Wildlife center will [name a salmon for your ex]( and feed it to a bear. (h/t Mike Smedley) Canada's forests [emit more carbon]( than they absorb. How humans might live on a [tidally locked planet](. Note: Please send salmon and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022