Trump’s phony emergency won’t help him win votes

[BloombergOpinion]( [Early Returns]( [Jonathan Bernstein]( President Donald Trump is planning – at least as I write this – to sign a funding bill that Congress passed on Thursday, and then declare a national emergency to [pay for his border wall](, using money that had been set aside for military construction, drug interdiction and other objectives. To be clear: Trump won’t be suspending the Constitution or imposing any other horrors that the phrase “emergency powers” might imply. He’s acting under [perfectly valid laws passed by Congress]( and signed by previous presidents, mostly during the 1970s. It also isn’t the first time that a president has declared a national emergency (although usually they’re reserved for foreign-policy matters). But it’s still a significant breach of precedent. To declare an emergency simply to pay for a presidential priority, and just after signing an appropriations bill that declined to fund it, appears to be new. It’s a significant threat to Congress’s spending powers under Article I of the Constitution. And there’s a good chance that Trump’s plans exceed his authorities. Expect immediate lawsuits and probably an injunction blocking the scheme until it’s been adjudicated. If Trump eventually prevailed, that would in fact be a major expansion of presidential powers. But assuming he won’t, what’s really happening here is that he’s abusing his powers by acting when the law doesn’t seem to allow it. He’s also undercutting Republicans in Congress, many of whom just voted for the spending bill that he now says is inadequate, and all of whom may end up having to take a tough vote on his “emergency.” (The laws allowing for emergency declarations also give Congress a chance to revoke the president’s powers; the House will almost certainly pass such a resolution, and the [Senate would likely be forced to vote on it](.) I’ll add one other thing. As the political scientist Richard Neustadt [pointed out](, presidents who act alone by giving orders usually do so out of weakness – and their unilateral actions tend to weaken them further. Several Republican senators publicly warned Trump not to take this step. It’s a good bet that they’ll now be less likely to defer to him on other things and more likely to tell reporters what they think about him. House Democrats will probably insist on riders restricting presidential actions in next year’s appropriations bills. Even within the executive branch, Trump is going to find constituencies that aren’t happy about “their” money being taken away and used for a wall – or perhaps tied up in court and not spent at all. It’s never clear how these things will affect public opinion, but so far polls show that [using emergency powers]( is even less popular than building the wall. Democrats will surely score points by talking about money wasted on a wall that was supposed to be spent on the military. And if Republicans wind up splitting on Trump’s declaration, it will almost certainly get even less popular. Trump’s approval rating may hold up even so. But one obvious conclusion to draw from this saga is that his preoccupation with pleasing his strongest supporters is foolish. They didn’t give up on him when he surrendered after the shutdown, and they wouldn’t have given up on him if he’d just signed the funding bill and moved on, wall or no wall. The problem is that those supporters won’t be enough to get him reelected, just as they weren’t enough to avoid big Democratic gains in 2018. Keeping a loyal audience happy may be the overriding concern in reality television. But not in politics. 1. Norm Ornstein [on John Dingell](. 2. Dan Drezner gets it right on [grilling Elliott Abrams](. 3. David S. Meyer at the Monkey Cage on the [movement to stop gun violence](. 4. Misty Knight-Finley and Alex Keena on [polarization and small donors](. 5. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Timothy L. O'Brien on the [state of Robert Mueller’s investigation](. 6. Philip Klein on [Trump’s emergency](. 7. And Jasmine C. Lee notes that, yes, Democrats are in fact [declaring their candidacies earlier]( than usual. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. [Click here to subscribe](hash=b9b2681361bede0e1069ca238efb1ec2). Also subscribe to [Bloomberg All Access]( and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. Bloomberg L.P. ● 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Web]( ● [Facebook]( ● [Twitter]( [Feedback]( ● [Unsubscribe](