To buy the dip or not to buy the dip – that is the question

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - Be careful [buying the flippin’ dip](. - Trump’s wall [speech was a dud](. - Time to close gun [background-check loopholes](. - Millennials [need careers](, not just jobs. - Rod Rosenstein [did the right thing](. Dip-Buyers Beware If “Everybody panic!” was the financial-market mantra of late 2018, then “BTFD” is the catchphrase of 2019 so far. But that should come with a warning: “FD buyer beware.” BTFD, for the uninitiated, means “Buy The Flippin’ Dip” (we’re a family publication) – which is what you do when you expect markets to bounce back from a downturn. There’s been a lot of it going around this year, including today, with stocks up on five of 2019’s first six days. Even beaten-down oil has jumped 23 percent from its December low, meeting one definition of a bull market. Bond traders apparently think markets got [a little too pessimistic]( about the economy late last year, Robert Burgess writes. So they’re pushing bond yields higher – typically a sign of growing economic optimism. It mirrors what’s been happening in the stock market, Bob writes. But one of the world’s most famous bond traders, DoubleLine Capital CIO Jeff Gundlach, thinks the [BTFD crowd is the one getting carried away](, writes Brian Chappatta. Gundlach points out investors were scrambling to buy the dip even when stocks were falling last year: This reminds Gundlach of traders who rushed in to buy falling subprime mortgages back in 2007 and 2008, Brian writes. When the selling resumed, the dip-buyers became panic sellers, and the sell-off intensified. Gundlach’s specialty is bonds, but he did pretty much nail the stock market in 2018, predicting it would jump at first and then end the year in the red, Brian notes. You can’t dismiss him. Read the [whole thing](. Further Markets Reading: - When it comes to metallic leading economic indicators, [aluminum is a better gauge]( than “Dr. Copper.” – Jason Schenker  - Old-timey hedge fund managers are [complaining about the confusing markets]( these days, and we’re all better off for it. – Matt Levine Trump’s Prime-Time Dud It turns out liberals got all worked up for nothing over President Donald Trump getting free network airtime last night. Sure, Trump’s pitch for spending billions on a border steel-slat-thing included many [demonstrable falsehoods](. And sure, the Democratic rebuttal, with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer crammed grimly on screen, inspired a [blizzard of memes](. But Trump’s performance was so flat and sluggish that it [surely did not help him](, writes Jonathan Bernstein. Such speeches usually don’t change many minds even in the best of circumstances, but Trump’s teleprompter remarks were particularly pointless, Jonathan writes. Read the [whole thing](. And however awkward that Dem rebuttal was, [it got the better of Trump](, writes Bloomberg’s editorial board. Pelosi and Schumer highlighted “the pointlessness of the shutdown,” while Trump didn’t bother to explain why it should continue. Public opinion was already against Trump on the shutdown and the border wall, and that will likely intensify. Read the [whole thing](. Then again, Dems should have let somebody else – a [rising star, rather than an entrenched leader]( – handle the rebuttal, suggests Jonathan Bernstein in a separate column. They’ll have to do this all over again soon, after the State of the Union Address. Maybe they could even revive the old group-style responses they gave in the 1980s, Jonathan writes. Almost anything would be more visually appealing than last night’s cold Chuck-and-Nancy sandwich. Time to Close Gun-Purchase Background-Check Loopholes The public wants to close the gaping background-check loopholes for gun purchases. Democrats in Congress definitely want to close them. Many Republicans feel the same way. House Dems have a new bill to do just that. Mitch McConnell may not want to schedule it for a Senate vote after it passes the House, but Republicans could pay a [heavy political price if he doesn’t](, Bloomberg’s editorial board writes. A Tale of Two Job Markets Millennials don’t get much sympathy in the media, always being accused of killing this or that and being pampered trust-fund kids who think the world owes them a living. But this highly educated, debt-burdened generation deserves some slack. The job market is changing more rapidly than ever, churning through new job descriptions – [digital prophets and social-media ninjas]( and what-not – so quickly it can seem impossible to build what the olds used to call a “career,” writes Noah Smith. We need to figure out how to give educated workers more career security, or we’ll end up with a generation of highly educated but angry young people, which tends to be a dangerous combination. Read the [whole thing](. Meanwhile, remember all that talk about how the solution to a bad job market was to give everybody more education? Funny thing: While we’ve been banging on about that, the supply of less-educated workers has been shrinking and the supply of highly educated workers has grown, Conor Sen points out. Because of economics, that’s helping lower-educated workers get raises, and it [could keep wages growing]( even if the economy slows down. Judging Rod Rosenstein Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein – who appointed special counsel Robert Mueller and has protected him from a very angry president for two years – plans to [step down]( after incoming AG William Barr takes office. This has sparked a lot of handwringing among Trump’s opponents. But Noah Feldman argues [Rosenstein’s work is done here](: He kept the Mueller probe alive, and Barr can probably be trusted to do the same. What’s ironic about all this, Noah notes, is that Rosenstein broke some norms to protect others: He should have recused himself from overseeing Mueller, given his involvement in the firing of James Comey and his reported anxieties about Trump’s competence. Such rule-breaking is usually a strict no-no among prosecutors, Noah writes, but history will look kindly on Rosenstein. Read the [whole thing](. Further White House HR Reading: There may be nothing legally stopping Trump from [firing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell](. – Stephen Mihm Telltale Charts China keeps [delaying the day of reckoning]( for its car market, but returns are diminishing and risks are growing, writes Anjani Trivedi: If activist hedge-fund manager Mick McGuire believed in his own medicine for Ugg boots maker Decker Outdoors Corp., then maybe he should have [stuck around a little longer](, writes Joe Nocera: Further Reading There’s a lot of paranoia about China’s Belt and Road scheme, but it looks more like [a haphazard, graft-friendly mess]( than a carefully designed plot for world domination. Of course, that’s not too comforting either. – David Fickling RIP [Italy’s populist revolution](. – Ferdinando Giugliano There’s [no evidence illegal immigrants are to blame]( for inland California’s economic problems. – Justin Fox [Tipping flight attendants]( is a terrible idea that could lead to worse treatment of workers and also hurt airline safety. – Adam Minter The U.S. should send astronauts back to the moon, but [in cooperation with China](, not competition. – Faye Flam If you want to understand your own health, forget about your doctor or medical records. [Google knows more about what’s going on with your body]( than anybody else. – Elaine Ou The Nordics have just about figured out [gender equality in the bathroom](. – Leonid Bershidsky ICYMI Trump [stormed out]( of shutdown talks. Divorce could make MacKenzie Bezos the [world’s richest woman](. Road-tripping around Europe in a Tesla [isn’t as fun]( as it sounds. Kickers The non-profit Archangel Ancient Tree Archive is [cloning and planting saplings]( of ancient redwoods. For some reason, nobody wanted to eat at Paris’s [all-nude restaurant](. FINALLY: a [laundry-folding robot](. (h/t Scott Duke Kominers for the first three kickers) China’s not-at-all-terrifying solution to rationing toilet paper? [Facial recognition](. (h/t James Greiff) For a low fee, [bounty hunters can track you down]( with data sold by wireless providers. [Becoming Jackie Chan]( was not easy. 30 [photos of the underground](. Note: Please send suggestions and kicker ideas to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. 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