The market’s tantrum turns to joy, but now what?

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - The stock market [got its way]( from the Fed today, but [what next](? - Big industrial companies have been [worrisomely quiet]( about 2019. - Mall Santas are [being replaced]( by Amazon deliverers. - Dems have [less to lose than Trump]( in the shutdown fight. Market Tantrum Pays Off Well, let’s hope you’re happy, stock market (you are): You [finally got your way](. Stocks rose by a gazillion percentage points (OK, three to four, but who’s counting?) after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell finally threw some cookies to a market that had been kicking and screaming on the floor for several weeks, Brian Chappatta notes. Unlike certain toddler-parent situations, this is probably fine for now: The stock market has some good reasons to be upset, including signs of a global economic slowdown, unresolved trade tensions and a government shutdown that may [never end](, to name a few. It’s probably good for Powell to respond to such fears. But Brian notes this puts the [stock market temporarily in charge]( not only of Fed policy but also of other markets, particularly bonds. That can’t last. And it also puts the Fed in a jam, particularly on a day when the government reported [wildly healthy job growth]( in December. The stock market may see this as its Goldilocks dream come true: The economy is still strong! But the Fed will leave it alone! But if the economy stays this strong, then the market can’t expect the Fed to keep doing nothing, Brian writes. Read the [whole thing](. And of course if the Fed turns back into the mean, cookie-denying parent again, then that might compound the [messaging problem the central bank created]( with months of mixed messages before this, writes Mohamed El-Erian. Powell’s speech today was a chance to reset communications and turn the Fed from a volatility creator into a volatility smoother. The market sure seemed to like it. Then again, a 4-percentage-point one-day swing is pretty volatile. Manufacturing a Mystery Meanwhile, big risks to the market still lurk. For one thing, America’s industrial giants – 3M Co., Caterpillar Inc., Honeywell International Inc. and the like – have been [unusually, eerily quiet lately]( about the outlook for 2019, notes Brooke Sutherland. This makes sense, as they’ve been waiting for clarity on the trade war. Unfortunately, such clarity is scarce. And the economic outlook just keeps deteriorating (Friday’s report notwithstanding). Later this month, when earnings season begins, these companies will have to start putting hard numbers on their forecasts for the year. The market may not be ready for what they have to say, Brooke warns. Read the [whole thing](. This is also a reminder that yesterday the stock market fell a gazillion points after Apple Inc. slashed its revenue outlook, citing a slowdown in China. Tim Culpan notes Apple may actually be in better shape than most of its peers in tech, who are piling up inventories of unsold goods, [suggesting big writedowns ahoy](. Now’s Your Chance at an Even Fancier Newsletter: This is a good moment to mention that Brooke Sutherland sends out her own newsletter every Friday afternoon, called “Industrial Insights,” breaking down the sector’s big stories and themes of the week. Brooke has been so prescient and thoughtful about so many of the biggest trends on her beat, from GE’s disintegration to the global factory slowdown, that she should probably charge money for this stuff. But no; it’s free. But it is also so new and so exclusive that the only way to sign up is to write Brooke directly, at bsutherland7@bloomberg.net, and ask to join the list. You won’t regret it. The Numbers Behind the Jobs Numbers As mentioned above, the December jobs report was strong to very strong, with a lot of hiring, even though unemployment ticked up. This is good news for workers and a sign we haven’t reached full employment yet. But the numbers will be revised multiple times, so it’s worth focusing on some broader trends. Non-economists might be forgiven for thinking the December hiring surge was all about workers taking seasonal jobs as [belligerent mall Santas](. But Justin Fox points out such hiring has been [declining for a loooooong time](: On the rise: Seasonal hiring for package deliverers for Amazon.com. Read the [whole thing](. Another big shift in the job market is the [slow aging out of Baby Boomers](. This will have big effects on the economy, writes Conor Sen. For one thing, as Boomers leave, they will be replaced by younger workers, who are more likely to spend than save, which could cushion the effects of a recession. Read the [whole thing](. After a year of strong job gains – and sudden price swoons – the oil patch seems to have taken away the “Help Wanted” sign at the end of the year. But it’s [sure glad everybody else is still hiring](, which could support oil demand for now, writes  Liam Denning. The Shutdown Shuffle President Donald Trump could have spent the day high-fiving himself over another set of good jobs numbers and a huge stock rally. Instead he spent it hunkering down in the fight over his promised Border Wall. He threatened to keep the government [shut down for “years”]( until he gets his way and said he might even declare a national emergency to get the wall built. One big problem for him is that Democrats are far more united on the shutdown than Republicans because [the wall is unpopular and so is Trump]( and the shutdown, notes Jonathan Bernstein. The GOP has more to lose here. But Bloomberg’s editorial board suggests the shutdown is so damaging that it’s on [Democrats to find a way]( to give Trump a “win” and move on. Telltale Charts Saudi Arabia is heading into a perfect storm of falling oil revenues and upheaval due to changes in the climate, society and demographics, warns Noah Smith. Promised reforms [may be too little, too late](, and the days of a flush kingdom buying its citizens’ happiness may soon be over. Bond mavens said this would finally be the year when shorting government bonds would pay off. Then they found out [why it’s called “The Widowmaker Trade](,” writes Mark Gilbert. Further Reading Manned space missions get all the love, but the [New Horizons flyby of Ultima Thule]( is a reminder that robotic missions are going to take space exploration in far more interesting places, at far less cost and risk. – Bloomberg’s editorial board One giant mutual fund returned 16 percent last year, blowing away its peers. [Here’s how it did it](. – Matthew Winkler Credit Suisse Group AG joins Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in paying the price for playing a [little too fast and loose]( in emerging markets. – Lionel Laurent A Paul Singer bid to wring more cash out of General Electric Co. in [a “bumpitrage” went horribly wrong](, and now he needs to help clean up the mess. – Chris Bryant  FINALLY, we’ve got an excuse for not having chiseled abs: Some of us get undesirable fat as part of [a natural defense against disease](. – Faye Flam  The late Southwest Airlines Co. founder Herb Kelleher managed a monumental feat: building [a consistently profitable airline]( that valued its employees. – Joe Nocera ICYMI The Supreme Court may soon declare open season for [political gerrymandering](. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez suggested to 60 Minutes that a [top marginal income-tax rate of 70 percent]( could help pay for a plan to fight climate change. Warning: Making [white-power signs]( on TV may get you fired. Kickers Happy [World Braille Day](. Forbes is developing an AI to write [first drafts of articles](. (h/t Scott Duke Kominers for the first two kickers) Norwegians may have found the secret to success: [a profoundly lame lunch](. (h/t Mike Smedley) Jean-Luc Godard’s [home movie of Jefferson Airplane]( playing on a rooftop in New York. (h/t James Greiff) A new treatment approach could [fight drug-resistant bacteria](. The Portland Trail Blazers need coffee – [a lot of coffee](. “Mean” Gene Okerlund was [professional wrestling personified](. Note: Please send lunch, suggestions and kicker ideas to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. 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