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Trump’s chaos engine finds a new, higher gear

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Fri, Dec 21, 2018 09:20 PM

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Today’s Agenda - The last grownup . - The market is . - Expect more . - So much for that whole

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - The last grownup [leaves the White House](. - The market is [trying to tell us something](. - Expect more [Trump energy disruption](. - So much for that whole [Saudi reform thing](. - Theresa May has [a third way out](. Mattis All Get-Out This newsletter, channeling Bloomberg Opinion’s prescient writers, has been [warning you]( for a [while now]( that the [chaos engine]( of President Donald Trump’s White House will just keep heating up. Yesterday proved the wisdom of those warnings – which remain in effect. Trump blew up a deal to avoid a government shutdown, reminded us of that time [he sang “Green Acres”]( and finally chased away his Defense Secretary James Mattis – or, as we like to call it around here, “Thursday.”  The truly disturbing thing about Mattis’s departure was that it was over [a lack of shared fundamental values]( and not a mere dispute over a policy decision like the abrupt departure from Syria, writes Eli Lake. That’s telling. It means one of Trump’s last semi-credible defenders has thrown in the towel for good. It certainly [makes Trump’s influence with Congress]( even weaker than it already is, writes Jonathan Bernstein, making the boring stability of Vice President Mike Pence look better all the time – not long before special counsel Robert Mueller submits his final report. Of course, on the other hand, the government-shutdown drama suggests a handful of conservatives are still with Trump, and that most [Republicans are still too scared of him to defy him](, Jonathan Bernstein writes in a second column. Mattis is widely considered to be the last “grownup” in the Romper Room of the Trump administration, unless you count Jared and Ivanka (though Toby Harshaw has suggested Mattis [hadn’t done much adult supervision]( lately). Tim O’Brien writes Mattis’s departure, along with all the other chaos yesterday and every other day, is evidence [Trump is totally fine with burning down everything around him]( in order to protect and aggrandize himself. He’s already burning down the White House. Keep expecting more of this, and faster. Further Mattis Reading: America’s allies relied on Mattis to restrain Trump’s worst anti-globalist urges, and [now they’re worried](. – Hal Brands Market Beatings Continue Today was [another ugly one]( for financial markets, capping a meltdown of a week. The biggest thing bothering traders is the wide gap between the Federal Reserve’s relatively rosy view of the economic outlook and the market’s. It’s possible markets are overreacting to signs of a slowdown; it wouldn’t be the first time. Then again, they’re still [much better at predicting recessions]( than economists (including at the Fed), writes Karl W. Smith. On the plus side, it may take only a little more softening of the data to make the [Fed see the wisdom of pausing]( its rate-raising campaign for a while, writes Tim Duy. Of course, the Fed might already have all the evidence it needs, including one worrisome thing Robert Burgess writes has been overlooked among the week’s craziness: The [dollar had one of its sharpest declines of the year]( yesterday. This is hardly a vote of confidence in America’s politics or economics. Further Markets Reading: - Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin suggests high-speed trading and the Volcker Rule may be causing market volatility. In fact, [volatility has been lower than usual]( up until very recently. – Nir Kaissar - Now that the [junk-bond market has disgorged the bad stuff](, maybe it will calm down for a while. – Brian Chappatta Trump’s Dark Energy Silicon Valley tried to strip the word “disruption” of its negative connotations, until we realized it was kind of a cruel joke. Now Trump is bringing “disruption” fully back to its roots. Take his impact on energy, where he has been a disruptor, but not in the squishy meaning of introducing radical new technology, [but in the old-timey meaning of blowing things up](, writes Liam Denning. From angry tweets at OPEC to on-again/off-again Iran sanctions to his trade war with China, he roiled energy markets in 2018. Given the aforementioned chaos theory of Trump – he will keep getting more chaotic, faster – expect more of the same in 2019, Liam writes. Further Energy/Climate Reading: - Trump and the [GOP cling to some climate-change “truths”]( that are awfully convenient. – Liam Denning - The end-Permian [atmospheric-CO2 spike]( is a chilling cautionary tale for us. – Faye Flam Another Way Saudis Aren’t Reforming When the year began, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was being feted around the world as a political and economic reformer set on bringing his kingdom into the modern era and shaking its dependence on oil. The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi blew the political part of that out of the water. A new Saudi government budget seems to toss the economic part too, in favor of [old-fashioned, oil-fueled blowout spending](, Bloomberg’s editorial board writes. Bonus Editorials: - The prison-reform bill Trump signed today is [a good first step](. - The Gatwick Airport shutdown is a good time for governments and the tech industry to think of ways to [keep drones from causing such havoc](. - The EU should take advantage of [popular unrest over Hungary’s overtime proposals]( to finally curb Viktor Orban’s authoritarianism. One More Brexit Menu Item Theresa May has a little-discussed option if she can’t get parliament to pass her Brexit deal, beyond a catastrophic no-deal Brexit or a second referendum (which she hasn’t supported): She can [call for an early general election](, writes Therese Raphael. Given how badly she handled the one in 2017, this might seem like a bad idea. But it could solidify Conservative support, expose Labour’s lack of an alternative, and take a no-deal Brexit off the table, Therese suggests. In the meantime, though, the U.K. must get ready for the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. But those very doomsday preparations will [freak out already rattled British consumers](, warns Andrea Felsted. Telltale Charts Bitcoin’s latest bounce looks to be of [the dead-cat variety](, writes Lionel Laurent. Libor is scheduled to die by 2021. The trouble is, [nobody has come up with a good alternative]( to it yet, notes Mark Gilbert. Maybe we should just fix Libor instead? Further Reading Meet Honeywell International Inc.’s Kristin Slyker, who’s selling the company’s plans to [make air travel less awful](. – Brooke Sutherland Goldman Sachs Group Inc. [can’t just blame rogue bankers]( for its 1MDB debacle; its internal checks should have caught what was happening. – Nisha Gopalan Huawei Technologies Co. can’t afford to have [big Western banks backing away]( from it. – Nisha Gopalan Closing off foreign investment, nationalizing private companies and antagonizing neighbors could keep China from being the center of the global economy. [It seems to be doing all three](. – Noah Smith As the U.S. mulls pulling troops from Afghanistan, it [shouldn’t put much hope in Taliban peace talks](. The group isn’t ready to join politics, and the government isn’t ready for it either. – Kamran Bokhari This has been a bad year for Vladimir Putin. [Next year will be even worse](. – Leonid Bershidsky My most interesting read of 2018 was [“Bad Blood” by John Carreyrou](, about the rise and fall of Theranos. – Mohamed El-Erian Charles Dickens wrote [more Christmas books]( than just “A Christmas Carol,” though you may not like them as much. – Justin Fox ICYMI The Supreme Court, led by Chief Justice John Roberts, [rejected Trump’s bid to curb asylum claims]( at the Mexican border. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg had [two cancerous growths removed]( from her lung. Kickers Update: Some of that amazing video of the package-thief-deterring glitter bomb [was not legit](, it turns out. Did your new [iPad Pro arrive bent](? Apple Inc. says that’s normal. Scientists find [new species of snake in another snake’s belly](, name it “mysterious dinner snake.” (h/t for the first two kickers to Scott Duke Kominers) The latest sign of the Apocalypse: [Hershey Kisses missing their tips](. (h/t Mike Smedley) The horrifying physical and psychological [consequences of being Aquaman](. A $20 million device to clean up the Pacific garbage patch [can’t hold onto the plastic it collects](. The unlikely [movie stardom of John C. Reilly](. Note: Please send snakes, suggestions and kicker ideas to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022

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