Nobody puts Trump in a corner, except Trump

[Bloomberg]( Todays’ Agenda - Trump’s [feeling the heat]( and flirting with [even more danger](. - GM’s got [bigger problems]( than Trump’s wrath. - We keep getting early [warnings of a recession](. - No, Trump’s Twitter account [isn’t running Fed policy](. Right? - Small businesses need protection from [predatory lenders](. Trump Lashes Out Cornered people are often the most dangerous, and President Donald Trump is surely no exception. You can tell the president is [feeling embattled just by watching his Twitter account](, writes Tim O’Brien. The frequency and ferocity with which Trump has tweet-attacked Robert Mueller lately suggests he’s pretty worried about where that case is going, after reports it’s nearing a crescendo, along with news his former campaign manager Paul Manafort violated his cooperation agreement and will soon go to prison for a long while. This lashing-out is not new for Trump, Tim notes, and it echoes his response to midterm election losses and pretty much any other setback he has faced in the past couple of years. Don’t expect it to moderate. Trump’s reaction would all be so much Twitter fun and games if it weren’t so damaging. Part of his response has been to hint he might pardon Manafort, whose life he has accused Mueller of ruining. His lawyers also reportedly got dirt from Manafort’s lawyers about Mueller’s probe, seemingly violating Manafort’s cooperation agreement with the special counsel, perhaps in the hope of such a pardon. This [smacks of obstruction of justice](, writes Noah Feldman, and Trump pardoning Manafort to protect himself would be illegal and grounds for impeachment. The president might not go through with it for just that reason – but then cornered reactions aren’t always carefully considered. GM’s Car Trouble Another target of Trump’s Twitter ire this week has been General Motors Co., which had the gall to close factories and lay off workers in a swing state, despite Trump’s promise to bring back all the factory jobs. But Trump’s wishes and willpower aren’t enough to overcome auto-industry trends, including one Justin Fox notes: [Americans simply aren’t driving as much](, and they’re hanging onto their cars longer, regardless of the economy. This hurts GM and rival Ford Motor Co., which announced a factory [re-jiggering]( today.  Aside from the fact that Trump’s attacks on GM aren’t fair or well-reasoned, they’re also politically and economically harmful, writes Ramesh Ponnuru. The American economy is the biggest and most successful in the world partly because companies have been able to make decisions [without having to worry that a president will rain hellfire]( on them for it, Ramesh writes. Meanwhile, GM risks drawing even more Trump ire by making and selling cars in China, the president’s bête noire. GM has been unusually successful for a foreign auto maker in China, writes Anjani Trivedi. And it [needs to keep its China ties strong]( more than it needs to keep Trump happy with it, Anjani writes. Expect more angry tweets. Recession Watch As Justin noted, car sales never fully bounced back from the Great Recession. But lately they have slowed down even more, Noah Smith points out: Auto sales tend to peak before the broader economy does, Noah warns. The same thing goes for home sales; and uh-oh: Businesses are still investing and hiring, and consumers are still spending; so a recession may not be imminent. But homes and autos suggest [it may be nearer than we think](. Another closely watched recession indicator is the “yield curve,” or the gap between short-and long-term interest rates. This often “inverts” – meaning short-term rates are higher than long-term ones, an unusual occurrence – before recessions happen. Brian Chappatta notes one yield curve, the gap between two- and five-year rates, is [suddenly very close to flipping](. At Least Jay Powell Made Trump Happy Another Trump target this week has been Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell. Trump keeps complaining about Powell raising interest rates and stepping on economic growth. He might be more pleased with Powell today; the Fed chair suggested the central bank might soon take a break from rate hikes. It certainly pleased the stock market, which [rallied hard]( on the news. It also led to jokes about how Trump’s [Twitter account is now managing monetary]( policy. But Dan Moss suggests Powell was merely [fixing a mistake he made last month](, when he freaked the market out by saying the Fed was a “long way” from ending its rate-hiking campaign. The Fed chair has learned to be a little more careful, Dan writes. Karl W. Smith writes the market overreacted to Powell – but he also argues the Fed should pause and give its earlier rate hikes time to work through the system. More Truth in Lending Like vulnerable individuals, small businesses are falling victim these days to predatory lenders, who use a tool called a “confession of judgment” to bankrupt them before they can defend themselves, Bloomberg's editorial board writes. This is especially a problem in New York, where lenders have unusually free rein. Congress probably won’t fix this any time soon, though it should, the editors write. At the very least, New York needs to [step up its regulation and protect small businesses](. Bonus Editorial: Russia’s aggression against Ukraine [needs an assertive response]( from the U.S. – Bloomberg editors Telltale Charts Hedge funds are supposed to help investors hedge against volatility. That has [not worked out so well]( lately, notes Mark Gilbert:  The stock market’s profit margin is flattered by [a handful of mammoth tech companies](, writes Stephen Gandel: A Bloomberg algorithm makes it easy to sniff out [evidence of possible insider trading]( in options, writes Matt Winkler. Further Reading The euro’s prominence is getting a boost from an unusual source: [Russia, which is selling euro bonds]( to skirt U.S. sanctions. – Leonid Bershidsky One of China’s biggest economic [problems is its low birthrate](, and there’s no easy solution in sight. – Peter Orszag China faces two big traps as Trump and Xi Jinping meet this weekend: [Thucydides and middle-income](. – John Authers The GOP’s Mississippi win last night was [thin and hollow]( and does not portend success in 2020. – Jonathan Bernstein When Democrats take over the House, they should overturn what Newt Gingrich did and [take power from the Speaker]( and give it back to subcommittees. – Jonathan Bernstein Hillary Clinton’s [Trumpist stance on European immigration]( only distracts from how the failed economic prescriptions of her ilk have fueled the rise of right-wing demagoguery. – Pankaj Mishra Facebook Inc. could help its reputation by being [clearer about where it makes its money](, so we can tell how much is possibly tainted. – Conor Sen No, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman is [not critical to Israel’s safety](, as Trump claims. – Zev Chafets MBS can’t assume this whole Jamal Khashoggi thing is just going to blow over. – Al Hunt ICYMI Steven Mnuchin claims somebody [took over his Twitter account]( and retweeted something mean about GM. Google would like you to forget about Dragonfly and focus on its [mosquito plan](. Eddie Lampert and Cyrus Capital Partners may have a plan to [keep the Sears Holdings Co. zombie]( shambling on. Kickers The “Fearless Girl” is [no longer facing down]( the “Charging Bull.” A Border Patrol agent’s [gender-reveal party]( caused a 47,000-acre wildfire. Area [cow too large]( to fit in slaughterhouse: Central Park Mandarin duck update: It’s [now an Internet meme](, of course. (h/t Scott Duke Kominers) Sorry, [your dog is not a genius](. After three weeks, the [world chess championship]( is finally over. Why so many [people hate winter]( – beyond the obvious reason that it is sheer garbage. Stephen Hillenburg created not just SpongeBob but a [cultural phenomenon]( (and a [bunch of memes](). The 25 most memorable [movie walkouts](. Note: Please send beef, suggestions and kicker ideas to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. 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