Nobody really saw World War I coming either

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - The risk of [another world war]( is higher than it seems. - Not all elections [end on Election Night](. - The [market volatility]( will continue. - OPEC’s [not entirely in control]( of oil. - It’s time to get rid of [noncompete clauses](. The Risk of Another World War A century after the end of World War I, the chances of such a nightmare happening again seem remote. Of course, they seemed pretty remote 100 years ago, too. Just before the start of the Great War, Hal Brands writes, Europe hadn’t seen continent-wide hostilities in about a century, and experts thought globalization had ended such great-power conflicts for good. Sound familiar? Then [all hell broke loose](. The lessons of that, Hal writes, are that peace is more fragile than you realize; that war will be much, much worse than you expect; and that risks rise when the U.S. retreats from the world stage – as it seems to be doing under President Donald Trump. Read the [whole thing](. To hammer that last point home, Trump spent the weekend making World War I remembrances in France [as awkward as possible,]( highlighting his ambivalence toward European allies and the post-World War II order the U.S. anchored and enjoyed for decades. So far, this is mostly window-dressing and bluster: His administration has quietly been increasing its spending in Europe, Bloomberg's editors note. Emmanuel Macron, in response to Trump’s mixed signals, has called for a new European self-defense force. But Europe [still can’t muster the kind of manpower]( and firepower the U.S. provides to NATO, Bloomberg’s editors note. Still, as Leonid Bershidsky notes, avoiding future conflicts will require a level of cooperation and flexibility not currently in evidence. World War I’s aftermath, Leonid writes, is proof of how [poorly handled peace can lead to decades]( of horror. More World War I Reading: The war changed the military forever; in many ways today’s [armies, navies and air forces are still fighting it](. – James Stavridis Recount Tensions Rise The other thing Trump has complained about lately is the vote-counting and recounting in Florida and other states with too-close-to-call midterm elections. "Must go with Election Night!" he [tweeted]( today, suggesting any votes added to Dem tallies afterward are illegitimate. This is not how elections work, but Jonathan Bernstein suggests such incorrect views are facilitated by the [poor job network TV does]( of covering Election Night. They cover it as if the final word will be that night, when in fact it can take days, weeks or months to settle some elections. Trump’s not the only Republican questioning the legitimacy of the election results, just as he wasn’t the only one using bigotry and fear to drive his voters to the polls, notes Al Hunt. Conservatives opposed to such tactics are [increasingly unwelcome in the GOP](, Al writes. “It’s now Trump’s Republican Party, mean-spirited, bigoted and ethically challenged.” From his behavior in the election to his firing of Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Trump keeps testing the limits of what Republicans will tolerate, and they keep giving him room to go further. Read the [whole thing](. More Politics Reading: - Gerrymandering is a problem, [but its effects may be fading](, and it can cut both ways. – Justin Fox - Maybe a different kind of gerrymandering – one that makes [education levels more equal]( across districts – can reduce the political divide. – Conor Sen - Dems should [work with the GOP]( to send some bills to Trump to sign. – Michael R. Strain Market Beatings Continue The stock market sure has been melting down a lot lately; and it probably won’t stop soon. As always, nobody knows all the reasons why the [Dow and Nasdaq each fell by more than 2 percent](today – although Trump’s claim that traders [suddenly realize House Dems will have subpoena power]( is probably not one of them. Today’s weakness was at least partly brought to you by tech stocks, but in the bigger picture, markets are in a tug-of-war between strong U.S. growth, weakness in the rest of the world, and rising interest rates, writes Mohamed El-Erian. He warns these conflicts won’t be resolved soon, so [the volatility will linger](. More Market Reading: - The Fed has made it [difficult to hold risk assets]( and difficult not to hold them. – Tim Duy - An oil-price collapse [only makes markets more complicated](. – John Authers Trump L’Oil The other thing Trump complained about in his busy day on Twitter was OPEC, which is considering cutting production to stabilize falling oil prices. Liam Denning writes Trump’s criticism could well make a production cut more likely because OPEC is going to want to reassert its already [shaky authority over its own market](. No matter what Trump tweets, though, OPEC will have a hard time pulling oil out of its bear market, writes Julian Lee, given the glut of the stuff in the world. And any temporary price bump only gets U.S. shale pumping more, making the glut even worse. It’s going to be [a rough 2019 for OPEC](. Noncompetes Should Be Nonstarters One of the big mysteries of the recovery from the Great Recession is why wages haven’t grown faster. And one of the explanations for that mystery is [the rise of the noncompete contract]( – a requirement that a worker not jump ship to a new job with a competitor for a set period of time. Long common in some high-skilled industries, these have spread to low-skilled workers in recent years. As Bloomberg’s editors write, this makes no sense; and even among high-skilled workers such contracts restrain innovation and entrepreneurship. The federal government should do something about this problem; if it won’t, then more states should be like California and [reject them](. Telltale Charts Maybe new General Electric Co. CEO Larry Culp should[just stop talking for a while](; sit the next couple of plays out, writes Brooke Sutherland:  Everybody reported eye-poppingly huge numbers for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s “Singles Day” online sales fiesta. Those numbers – “gross merchandise value,” whatever the heck that is – are growing [increasingly distant from numbers with actual meaning](, points out Tim Culpan: Train Reading Banning exports of used electronics will hurt the environment and [won’t make America any more secure](. – Adam Minter One of Facebook Inc.’s biggest fans [has turned on it](. – Joe Nocera Private-equity returns [aren’t all they’re cracked up to be](; they don’t even beat the market. – Stephen Gandel While fighting brick-and-mortar retailers, Amazon.com Inc. is also [borrowing their techniques](. – Sarah Halzack Before the age of the driverless car can begin, we’ll need [a bunch of new regulations](; the old ones will no longer apply. – Anjani Trivedi India’s [$400 million monument to populism]( is a waste of precious resources. – Anjani Trivedi But maybe [cooler parks and libraries]( can help save America. – Justin Fox ICYMI RIP [Stan Lee](. Facebook was [out for a while](. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s 1MDB problems are [hurting the stock](. Kickers Jigsaw puzzles + common die-cut template + lots of free time = freaky [jigsaw mashups](. Area man [marries hologram](. Apple’s Jony Ive designs a [diamond ring made entirely of diamond](. Photos from the [Insight Astronomy Photographer of the Year]( competition. Need to shoot drugs into your eyeball? Try these [dissolving microneedles](. (h/t for the first five kickers to Scott Duke Kominers) Sixteen great [mystery-box TV shows](. Note: Please send holograms, suggestions and kicker ideas to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022