Huge turnout is a good thing. Right?

[BloombergOpinion]( [Early Returns]( [Jonathan Bernstein]( I haven’t yet dived into “[Identity Crisis](,” the new book from political scientists John Sides, Michael Tesler and Lynn Vavreck explaining what actually happened in the 2016 elections. Until I learn otherwise, though, I’ll persist in one admittedly speculative belief – that the rise of Donald Trump was partly an effect of good times. With close enough to peace, and more or less prosperity, voters felt free to base their politics on other things. It’s from that point of view that I have very mixed feelings about what’s expected to be unusually high voter turnout for the elections on Tuesday. Or, rather, for the elections that end on Tuesday. Here in Texas, more votes have already been cast than in all of 2014. Experts have been astounded at the figures so far. We’re not likely to have more voting than in a presidential election, but it’s apparently as close to a light presidential year as it is to a normal midterm. We’ve also had much broader participation in this election, from phone banking to small donations to door-to-door canvassing. And there’s been an avalanche of new candidates, especially at the state and lower levels. On the one hand, this is terrific. I’m in favor of more political participation. Yes, [elections don’t really do what people think they can do](. But that’s no reason not to vote – after all, even if your decision is more group-oriented than personal, and even if you can’t really direct politicians to do exactly want you want them to do, voting for candidates you prefer will still make it more likely that they’ll win. Voting has plenty of [other benefits](, too – not least that it is, to me anyway, an intensely patriotic act. And yet. I can’t help seeing the surge in participation, much as I welcome it, as a reflection of a nation in desperate shape. I’d like to think that people have suddenly become convinced that midterms are important, and that participation in democracy is good for its own sake. But no one believes that’s really what’s happening. People are voting as if the fate of the nation hangs on whether Democrats manage to add 23 House seats or not, and that’s not really a great comment on the health of our democracy. I’m not entirely sure that this impression is true. If Democrats do win big, the phony scare stories the president and many candidates are peddling – immigrant caravans taking over or the Second Amendment being repealed or whatever – will still just be phony scare stories. But there is at least a bit of truth to it. No one knows exactly what Trump and the Republicans would do with two more years of unified government. I do know that if they once again defy the polls, they’re going to think they’re bulletproof. They were already willing to ignore evidence that, for example, their tax cut was massively unpopular. If they win on Tuesday, they’ll be even less likely to allow evidence of constituent opinion to constrain them – including when it comes to stopping Trump’s authoritarian impulses (something congressional Republicans, especially in the Senate, have in fact tried to do so far). And if Republicans win ugly, by exploiting ethnic fears and bigotry, they’ll be emboldened to do the same next time. If they win partly by making it harder for people who oppose them to vote, they’ll be encouraged to keep doing so. Perhaps there’s a line that most Republicans won’t cross. Perhaps there’s a line that even Trump won’t cross. I just don’t see much evidence of that. So, yes, vote. And let’s celebrate the surge of participation in U.S. politics. But then let’s hope we can start ratcheting things down – so people feel like they can go back to ignoring politics, even if they shouldn’t. 1. Rick Hasen on [“banana republic” tactics in Georgia](. 2. Ashley Jardina at the Monkey Cage with [public opinion on birthright citizenship](. 3. Rachel Bitecofer has the [2018 predictions]( from her negative partisanship model. 4. Michael McDonald looks at [the early vote]( and what it suggests about turnout – and election results. 5. Marc Meredith and Michael Morse on the likely effects of [ex-felons voting in Florida](. 6. Ariel Edwards-Levy on [how polling has changed in this cycle](. 7. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Francis Wilkinson on [Republicans and running on bigotry](. 8. And Yair Rosenberg on [the Pittsburgh murderer](. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click [here]( to subscribe. Also subscribe to [Bloomberg All Access]( and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. Bloomberg L.P. ● 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Web]( ● [Facebook]( ● [Twitter]( [Feedback]( ● [Unsubscribe](