The GOP hides its true health-care position

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - Republicans are [fibbing about health care]( in lieu of [crafting an agenda](. - Don’t count out [Saudi Arabia’s sway]( in oil. - Brexit is a [threat to the derivatives market](. - Kansas is the [wrong model]( for the U.S. economy. - China’s not the [real currency manipulator](. The GOP’s Health-Care Fantasy World Republicans have a problem this November: Health care is [the biggest issue]( in the midterm elections, but their stance on it is wildly unpopular. So they’re trying a bold political tactic: Making stuff up. Large [majorities of voters]( want to keep the Affordable Care Act’s protections for people with pre-existing medical conditions. President [Donald Trump]( and Senate Majority Leader [Mitch McConnell]( have both recently claimed that all Republicans feel exactly the same way – even as they fight in court to vaporize those protections and vow to take yet another stab at killing the ACA entirely. For some perspective on why [Republicans would rather you forget about that](, here’s a chart from Max Nisen: There are 36 anti-ACA Republicans running in unfriendly congressional districts in November – more than enough to flip the House to the Democrats. The GOP could overcome this with an ACA alternative that did everything they claim they want to do: lowering regulations and costs while protecting patients. But this is a fantasy, thanks to another, even more difficult math problem, Max writes: All of this stuff involves [trade-offs Republicans don’t want to make](. And it’s not just health care. As Ramesh Ponnuru notes, Congressional Republicans [really can’t say what they’d do]( about much of anything, save “Cut taxes more” or “Try to kill Obamacare again.” This reflects a Trump-era party that has no idea what it stands for any more, aside from nurturing cultural grievances. But at least in this one aspect the GOP message is honest, Ramesh writes: “If they win and do nothing, [nobody will be able to call them on broken promises](.” We’ll see in 17 days if it works. The Khashoggi Crisis’ Energy Impact It was a relatively quiet day in the controversy over the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s [position seems to be weakening](, and the Trump administration [seems to be bending]( to pressure to hold the Saudis accountable for Khashoggi’s probable death. One complicating factor, though, is that Saudi Arabia still holds [significant sway in the oil market](, notes Meghan O’Sullilvan. Sure, the U.S. produces more oil than it once did; but it has also clamped down on Iranian oil exports, tightening supplies and raising prices. It can’t afford to lose Saudi production on top of that, Meghan writes. Bonus energy independence reading: Trump wants to send Powder River coal to Asia. There are [many reasons that won’t work](. – David Fickling Brexit’s Threat to the Derivatives Market A decade ago, credit derivatives nearly blew up the financial system. Now the [derivatives system faces its own threat](, in the form of Brexit, warns Lionel Laurent. European banks are abandoning London ahead of Brexit, setting up a turf war over which jurisdiction will regulate some of the $400 trillion in annual trades. Just for giggles, the U.S. is getting into the squabble too. “Cooler regulatory heads could yet prevail,” Lionel writes (news Theresa May [might drop demands]( about the Irish border to strike a Brexit deal is heartening in that regard). But [don’t count out chaos just yet](. Cali vs. Kansas California, with its high regulations and taxes, is [an economic success story](, as Matthew Winkler wrote yesterday. Kansas, with low taxes and lax regulations, is a disaster. You’ll never guess which state Donald Trump wants to model the rest of the U.S. after. OK, you’ll guess: [It's Kansas](. In fact, he’s already started turning the U.S. into Kansas, writes Barry Ritholtz, and the economy is [already starting to suffer](. What Is ‘Manipulation’ Anyway? For all of Trump’s complaints about China’s unfair trade practices, which include kinda-sorta [accusing the country of manipulating]( its currency to keep it weak against the dollar, China is strikingly … not manipulating its currency, according to a new Treasury Department report. Here’s a chart from David Fickling: David notes many of the countries at the top of that ranking are U.S. allies against Beijing, so they get [little more than a finger-wag]( from the Treasury Department for their currency games. Trump could conceivably fiddle with the ranking criteria to get better results from the next report, David writes, but [that would be … manipulation](. Bonus China reading: Chinese officials are talking up China’s stocks, which is “[a flashing red sell signal](.” – Shuli Ren Picturing the Permian Shale Boom This hotel-room search, from Justin Fox’s must-read account of [his visit to the booming Permian shale basin](, pretty much says it all: Making Sense of Earnings Season Corporate earnings season is in full swing, giving Bloomberg Opinion writers a chance to show off how good they are with numbers and words and charts and stuff: - Honeywell Inc.’s quarterly results [beat high expectations]( and eased broader worries about the industrial sector. – Brooke Sutherland - Bank OZK (the artist f/k/a Bank of the Ozarks) tells [a troubling story]( about the state of banking. – Stephen Gandel - Proctor & Gamble Co. had a nice quarter, but [it’s still in hot (soapy?) water](. – Sarah Halzack Charty McChartface America’s oil and gas pipelines are [kind of shockingly old](. No wonder the hot new energy investment is taking care of this plumbing, writes Liam Denning. Some people are reassured by this chart of the [spread between Italian and German]( bond yields. John Authers isn’t. Quick Hits The U.S. military is [bad at keeping and nurturing talent]( in its officer ranks. – Editorial board Putin’s worldview is becoming [even more terrifyingly fatalistic](. – Leonid Bershidsky  Critics warned the Fed’s post-crisis policy would [spur wild risk-taking]( and dangerous bubbles. It didn’t. – Noah Smith Facebook is smart to address political weaknesses by [hiring Nick Clegg](. But he may not change the culture. – Alex Webb Not too many investors have followed Yale’s endowment into socially responsible investing. Maybe because [nobody knows what that even means](. – Nir Kaissar Why Netanyahu [declined a military escalation]( in Gaza. – Zev Chafets The NBA is significantly [jacking up its minor-league salaries](. It’s about time. - Joe Nocera ICYMI The Justice Department [charged a Russian woman]( with conspiring to interfere in U.S. elections. Home sales are [suffering from higher mortgage rates](. A Tesla Inc. short-seller warned of [“massive” supply-chain disruption](. Kickers Baseball’s playoffs [amplify the worst of the sport](, however entertaining they may be. If you thought the Weather Channel’s storm-surge simulation was scary, [get a load of its wildfire sim](. (h/t Scott Duke Kominers) The [most massive organism]( on Earth is shrinking. Does climate change mean you [shouldn’t have kids](? Your real biological clock is [you’re going to die](. A bicycle crash made a bilingual UK woman [forget how to speak English](. Cuttlefish wear their [thoughts on their skin](. Every [John Carpenter movie](, ranked. [Photos of the week](. Note: Please send simulations, suggestions and kicker ideas to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. *** New subscribers can [sign up here](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022 If you believe this has been sent to you in error, please safely [unsubscribe](.