The Kavanaugh effect won’t be felt in November

[BloombergOpinion]( [Early Returns]( [Jonathan Bernstein]( Politico’s Annie Karni speculates that how the [Brett Kavanaugh nomination]( is resolved has become for both parties “a make-or-break moment for their chances of victory in the midterm elections.” Don’t believe it. Dave Hopkins and FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver say that we should expect very minimal effects from the nomination. Hopkins [notes]( that the people who are intensely engaged with the nomination are, for the most part, strong partisans from both sides — and those are precisely the people who usually vote, and vote the party line. Even if some of the more marginal party voters are more likely to vote (or not) because of the news, it’s also the case that there’s still plenty of time between now and Election Day. After all, just a few weeks ago the news was dominated by the conviction of Paul Manafort and Michael Cohen’s guilty plea, followed by the death and funeral of John McCain. Those were pretty big events, and they probably did push opinion polls a bit. But while they’re not exactly forgotten, they’re no longer in the headlines. Any current effect on turnout or vote choice is likely minimal. Silver adds: While some Republican operatives are claiming that enthusiasm among their voters depends on Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court, there’s no real way of actually knowing that, and it’s equally possible that a Kavanaugh defeat would motivate Republicans, while his confirmation would increase Democratic turnout even beyond the currently expected levels. His bottom line: [It's all complicated and semi-unpredictable](. All of that seems exactly correct to me. Any effects are likely to be small, and there’s no reason to expect we can guess the direction. The one thing I think is almost certain is that people have a strong tendency to overstate how committed rank-and-file Republican voters and most party actors are to Kavanaugh. Not that they don’t support him strongly; they do. But for most of them, he’s completely interchangeable with any other strongly conservative nominee. There’s a bit of a paradox here. If Kavanaugh is not confirmed but a similarly conservative replacement is nominated to replace him, virtually every Republican will soon be as enthusiastic about the replacement as they were for Kavanaugh. At the same time, if Kavanaugh is defeated, we can expect Republican resentment over his treatment to remain strong for years, and perhaps increase, even if they’re perfectly happy with the replacement — and even if more evidence against Kavanaugh emerges. After all, Republicans have spent decades being upset about the supposedly unfair treatment of Robert Bork, even though the process in the Bork case was extremely straightforward. Whatever else is at stake, I very much doubt the eventual decision about Kavanaugh will change which party winds up with congressional majorities — let alone all the outcomes of important gubernatorial, state-level and other down-ballot contests. 1. Chaya Crowder at the Monkey Cage on the [Clarence Thomas confirmation and the Brett Kavanaugh nomination](. 2. Seth Masket at Mischiefs of Faction on [how the parties have changed]( since 1991. 3. Boris Heersink at A House Divided on [Kavanaugh and the Supreme Court’s legitimacy](. 4. Matthew Dickinson, on [the Kavanaugh nomination](, is far less worried about legitimacy. 5. Rebecca Traister on [women’s anger]( and the Kavanaugh nomination. 6. Nate Silver looks at the [Senate race in Texas](. 7. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Therese Raphael on [the Tory party conference](. 8. Fred Kaplan looks at the latest on [Donald Trump and North Korea](. 9. And Nathan Robinson has a [close read of the testimony]( from Thursday’s hearing. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click [here]( to subscribe. Also subscribe to [Bloomberg All Access]( and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. Bloomberg L.P. ● 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Web]( ● [Facebook]( ● [Twitter]( [Feedback]( ● [Unsubscribe](