We should all be focusing on China right now

The world order is on the line this election. [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, the real historical parallel to today’s rivalry between Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Stop [China](? [Here’s]( how. - [Bill Hwang’s]( in trouble now. - [Rate cuts](, where art thou? - To [unite France](, make a vow. The World Order Is at Stake On today’s episode of WHAT IS HAPPENING TO AMERICA??, Democrats spent [7/11]( holding their breath ahead of President Joe Biden’s “[big boy](” [press conference]( (which most certainly will not include a [backflip](), while [conservatives]( continued to spread [conspiracies]( about how he’s a “corpse puppeteered by the deep state.” In other words: The discussion has strayed [very very far]( from issues or policy. Instead all the talk is about [George Clooney]( and [color TVs and hula hoops](. Which is well and good for an entertaining [TikTok]( or [newsletter](, but *not* so much for a nation of 330 million-plus humans trying to decide on its next leader. Both parties are focusing on everything but matters of substance. Which brings me to [this](: Let me repeat that for you: This is “the most consequential foreign policy election in decades, perhaps ever,” and we’re making jokes about [coconut trees]( and [Raya girls]( that have Hunter Biden’s phone number?? America, we’ve gotta be better than that. According to a bunch of [new books]( that (disclaimer!) I have not read, the US and China are in the midst of a new cold war. Yet Minxin Pei worries [it’s already worse]( than that: “Unless the two rivals recognize that soon, they may fail to repeat the greatest unsung accomplishment of the US-Soviet cold war: avoiding a hot one,” he writes. Forget about cold war-era competitive [space races]( — for what it’s worth, F.D. Flam [says]( those actually ruin scientific progress. Washington and Beijing risk “repeating the mistakes that marked the real historical parallel to today’s rivalry: the British-German tensions that led to World War I,” Minxin says. Despite Biden’s [frail state](, US allies [clearly]( see him as the man who can avoid such a conflagration. Trump, meanwhile, is “incapable of the strategic stewardship the moment demands,” Hal Brands [writes](, who also notes that “he is erratic, emotional and fundamentally [autocratic](.” No wonder NATO officials have spent the week [Trump-proofing]( their entire organization. The world order is on the line this election, no matter what comes out of Biden’s mouth this evening. Keep that mind when you head to the polls in *checks notes* 116 days. Bonus Election Reading: Who’s the new [protector-in-chief](? Jill Biden has some explaining to do. — Mary Ellen Klas If Only There Was a Cash Pile in the Backyard And now for a non-political palate cleanser: The enigma that is Bill Hwang! Yesterday he and his former business pal Patrick Halligan were [found guilty]( of fraud in the collapse of Archegos, the $36 billion family office/hedge fund that lied to banks such as [Credit Suisse]( and [UBS]( about the trading risk in its portfolio. The criminal conviction reveals two things, [says]( Paul J. Davies: “Something like this should never happen again, and there’s no way to guarantee this will never happen again.” Sounds cryptic! Paul elaborates: Basically, when investment banks lend to hedge funds, the banks don’t get to see what their clients are up to. There are deep rivalries between funds and banks, and nobody wants to reveal their secrets, so what happens with the cash mostly remains a mystery (unless, as in the case of Archegos, things go haywire). But what exactly went wrong for Bill Hwang? In Matt Levine’s [words](, he “bought a ton of shares of about a dozen stocks, as sloppily as possible, with the effect and apparent intention of making those stocks go up.” His intent is what makes it look like market manipulation. But Matt found the trial to be “unsatisfying,” if only because Hwang seemingly had [no plan]( to actually make money: “He started off with hundreds of millions of dollars, briefly manipulated his way to $36 billion, sold his stocks and ended up at zero.” Zero!!! “I have speculated that it would be cool if at some point he withdrew a billion dollars of profits and buried them in his backyard, but even after the trial I have never seen any evidence of that,” Matt writes. Bonus Bank Reading: America’s biggest banks look strong — but [what they don’t know]( could still hurt them. — Bloomberg’s editorial board Telltale Charts “One could argue that the inflationary episode is over, that the stock market is at all-time highs, and that the unemployment rate is near its lowest levels ever,” is [a thing]( Bloomberg News’s Joe Weisenthal tweeted after today’s stellar CPI report. If that’s all true, the Federal Reserve should start lowering policy rates when it makes its next decision on July 31. But Jonathan Levin [suspects]( it won’t do that until September — a decision he doesn’t agree with. “It’s conventional wisdom that policymakers must never surprise the markets lest they contribute to volatility,” he notes. But “investors simply don’t need this months-long ritual to understand that circumstances have changed. ... Putting American jobs at risk in the name of preserving this bizarre tradition would just be wrong.” By now, we know that most French people want little to do with the antics of far-right leader Marine Le Pen. But they remain divided on pretty much everything else: “In countries more used to coalition governments,” Lionel Laurent [says](, a non-majority “would be an immediate trigger for compromise and negotiation across the aisle to build bigger partnerships.” But France is rather rusty when it comes to teamwork making the dream work, having operated without a coalition for quite some time. If the nation wants to “break the gridlock of a hung parliament and get its economy back on track,” Lionel argues, it “needs a little more Erasmus and a lot less Machiavelli.” Further Reading BP is [a shadow]( of the mighty oil behemoth it once was. — Javier Blas One of Britain’s [biggest banks]( isn’t even a bank. — Marc Rubinstein Relax: Tokyo [isn’t ripping out]( thousands of trees to redevelop a park. — Gearoid Reidy A 30-year-old [tax treaty]( is ruining China’s public finance. — Shuli Ren The Skydance-Paramount merger might tempt [a rival bidder]( to emerge. — Chris Hughes The Tories will find it harder to [mend relations]( with the EU. — Clive Crook ICYMI Tesla [postponed]( a robotaxi event. [Ezra Klein]( is back on [Twitter](. Las Vegas is a [record-breaking]( inferno. Skin care is coming for [your brain](. Kickers The Killers gave [England fans]( the [best concert ever](. San Francisco nudists [tackle a “pirate”]( to save a tourist. Young men [pay to attend]( “Mogwarts,” the school of looksmaxing. Sabrina Carpenter is [short n’ sweet n’ spicy]( on Hot Ones. RuPaul teaches TikTok [how to parallel park]( with precision. Notes: Please send wizard steroids and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Threads](, [TikTok](, [Twitter](, [Instagram]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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