It’s an expensive year to be the Easter Bunny

Chocolate prices are going berserk. [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a sustained bull run of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - [Chocolate prices]( go berserk. - Trump’s [abortion plan]( won’t work. - [The Great Retreat]( is nothing to shirk. [Chocolate Bunnies]( > Gucci Handbags Between federal agents [raiding]( Diddy’s home and the tragic Baltimore [bridge collapse](, there’s been no shortage of “[oh no](” [news]( out today. But since it’s my birthday — and that of [Lara Williams](, my twin across the pond — let’s focus on [a sweeter story](. Of course I’m talking about cocoa futures, which surged above a previously unthinkable metric of $10,000 this morning. “This isn’t the S&P 500, a sh*tcoin or even the FED balance sheet. It’s the price of cocoa up +250% just in time for Easter, peak chocolate season,” Genevieve Roch-Decter [tweeted](. “In every sustained commodity price rally, there’s a moment when fundamentals — supply, demand, inventories — no longer matter,” Javier Blas writes. “It’s clear that moment has arrived for cocoa.” Since when did [Willy Wonka]( become the new Elon Musk? For a while there, our elevated chocolate prices were based on actual bad stuff happening in West Africa — crappy soil, blergh harvests, aging trees, all that jazz. The market sent prices skyrocketing to curb consumption and restore the supply-and-demand equilibrium. But then things got weird: Cocoa prices started setting fresh highs on the daily, [eclipsing]( the factors that led to their initial ascent. Now, the commodity is [outperforming]( even Nvidia, the poster child of the AI boom. “To understand what’s happening one needs to look at the plumbing of the market — and who’s bearish and who’s bullish,” Javier writes. If you’re a trader who owns inventories of cocoa — beans, liquor, butter, powder, you name it — you want to hedge those investments by taking the opposite position in the financial market. In a rising cocoa market, your losses on the short positions are covered by gains on your physical chocolate holdings. So far, so good. “But in a sustained bull run, like the one currently engulfing cocoa, the margin calls may overwhelm the capacity to pay of a company in otherwise sound financial health, forcing it to lift its hedges to avoid a cash crunch,” he explains. In that scenario, the only option is to close out your short positions at whatever price the market demands. And word on the street, according to Javier, is that all these ballooning margin calls could leave companies short on cash. “A bull market is almost impossible to stop — until something breaks,” he warns. And he’s not just talking about the Cadbury Creme Egg you — and [Carly Rae Jepsen]( — will be devouring come Sunday. Read [the whole thing]( for free (or at the very least check out Javier’s [15-part thread](). Make America [Pray]( Again? Speaking of prices that [defy all logic](, former president Donald Trump spent his Tuesday [yipping with glee]( after his [media company](/[meme stock’s]( wildly eventful [Nasdaq debut](. Shares for Trump Media, the parent of Truth Social, jumped nearly 59% and briefly triggered a volatility-related trading halt this morning. Should they stay near that level, Bloomberg’s Bailey Lipschultz [says]( Trump may hit a windfall of more than $5.5 billion. And to think, that’ll be on top of the name, image and likeness [money]( he’ll get from the sales of this God Bless The USA Bible: A man of God (and grift) For those of you who have questions, might I direct you to the [FAQ page]( of. “This is the only Bible endorsed by President Trump! Printed in an easy-to-read, two-column format, The God Bless The USA Bible includes the words of Jesus in red.” And if the pages of your [$60 Bible]( are sticking together … “No worries, this is very common with new Bibles that have gold gilding around the edges of the paper. For your convenience, we have provided links to [a Youtube video]( that does a wonderful job of explaining how to break your new Bible in.” I presume Trump will need to watch that tutorial, too, because there’s no chance he’s ever broken in a Bible. Instead, his whole “Make America Pray Again” schtick is just [another instance]( of what Tim O’Brien calls “[opportunistic spirituality](.” In religion and in life, the former president has learned to hem-haw his way to political agreeability. Consider abortion. As with many issues, Nia-Malika Henderson [says]( “Trump has taken all sides depending on what’s most politically expedient at the time,” much like a used car salesman who tells you what you want to hear to make the deal. If you recall, Trump was [pro-choice]( until 2011! He [promised to overturn]( Roe v. Wade when he was running for office, not because he cared about women’s bodies or the sanctity of life, but because it was strategically advantageous for him. “Polls show that [most AmericansÂ](want abortion to be legal,” Nia-Malika writes. Yet today, the Supreme Court heard arguments in [a case]( over [mifepristone](, a drug now used in more than half the nation’s abortions. Although key justices [suggested]( they will back access to the abortion pill, the debate over the right to choose is far from over. Until we reach a resolution, I guess we’re stuck praying for reproductive rights. Bonus Politics Reading: - The House GOP resignations should signal to Speaker Mike Johnson that his power lies in [bypassing the extremists]( in his party. — Patricia Lopez - President Biden is slowly [changing the narrative]( of his campaign by doing the bread-and-butter work of a politician. — Nia-Malika Henderson Telltale Chart Takeover Every now and then, you’ll see evidence of our inflation hangover in the news. Today, it was Dollar Tree [announcing]( that it will bump up prices in its stores to $7. Yesterday, it was Trader Joe’s [increasing]( the cost of a banana. Although incremental changes are painful, they’re nothing compared to the wave of inflation that broke out after Covid began. Some central bankers — in Brazil and Mexico, for instance — sprung into action, raising rates to combat the rising prices. Others — the ECB and the Fed — took longer to staunch the bleeding. Which banks did it best? And how might they face the challenge of retreating without tipping into a recession, or worse, allowing rising prices to return? The data might surprise you: To track the interest rate climbdown, John Authers — with the help of Richard Abbey, Elaine He, Patrick McDowell, Carolyn Silverman and Taylor Tyson — is launching [The Year of Descending Dangerously](, a suite of indicators that will be updated monthly. If you’re smart, you’ll have bookmarked that link already. And if you haven’t, you know what to do. Bonus Rate Hike AMA: Have questions about how different markets have responded to inflation after the pandemic and what might happen going forward? John will be live on [YouTube]( to answer them on Wednesday at 12 pm ET. Submit your questions [here](mailto:opinion@bloomberg.net). Further Reading Free read: Beyoncé’s album cover makes [complete sense]( to Black Texans. — Taylor Crumpton Free read: India’s super-rich are [opening up]( their wallets to Modi. — Andy Mukherjee Accountants can [use the help]( that AI provides. — Bloomberg’s editorial board Big Tech is making money on your kid’s [social media addiction](. — Lisa Jarvis Michigan is back to being a [US economic leader]( under Joe Biden. — Matthew A. Winkler The White House just fired a major [diplomatic shot]( at Israel. — Andreas Kluth China’s clean-tech growth is [a success story]( on a grand scale. — David Fickling What are the [odds of enjoying]( March Madness now? — Allison Schrager [A dream run]( for homebuilders is ending. — Conor Sen ICYMI Young women are [getting punched]( in NYC. [Nicole Shanahan]( is RFK Jr.'s running mate. AI nude generators are [extremely unsettling](. Kickers Peep the [Eras Tour](. Bears [take a ride]( on a swan. [Connections]( makes us feel stupid. Please don’t [decant]( your groceries. [Blue Milk]( is coming to a galaxy near you. Notes: Please send chocolate and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Threads](, [TikTok](, [Twitter](, [Instagram]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](