Don’t believe the hype on illegal border crossings

Texas didn’t even know how to enforce SB4. [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a viable and potentially thriving future for Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - [Illegal border]( crossings aren’t any worse. - [Goldman Sachs]( puts women in reverse. - [Cathie Wood]( has an AI investment curse. - [Indiana]( can’t make campus more diverse. Red Light, Green Light Is anyone surprised that the US hit an all-time low in the [World Happiness Report](? Money doesn’t buy you happiness! It buys you a convoluted legal system that gives you [whiplash]( on a daily basis: Beyoncé didn’t mean [TEXAS HOLD ‘EM]( like this Last night while you were hooked up to your sleep apnea machine, the New Orleans-based 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals issued a decision that blocked Texas from enforcing SB4 — a super-duper strict immigration law — which, mere hours before, was temporarily in effect thanks to the Supreme Court. If that sentence just gave you a headache and half, please know that you’re not alone. I have so many questions: Are Texas Rangers refreshing their social feeds before pulling out the handcuffs? If they arrested someone at 9:45 last night, could that person [sue](? What stops local police from racially profiling you and saying, “You look like you might be here on an undocumented basis, let me deport you”? OK, that last question wasn’t actually mine — it was [asked]( by Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo on CNN this morning. Sadly, I’m in no position to answer any of these questions. In the few hours that the law was in effect, Texas [didn’t even know]( how to [enforce]( it. What I can tell you is that illegal US border crossings aren’t really breaking any records, contrary to what former president Donald Trump [might]( have you [believe](. While the number of people who are apprehended by US Border Patrol agents (or voluntarily surrender to them) has skyrocketed to record levels over the past three years, Justin Fox [argues]( that it’s important to factor in how many are getting past the agents — which isn’t many, by historical standards. Back when Jimmy Carter was [president](, federal agents used to catch only a third of those trying to enter the country unlawfully from Mexico. Now, that figure is close to 90%. Account for the increased apprehension rate and adjust for population, and illegal crossings of the Southwest border were lower in 2023 than in most of the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. “It’s a much different sort of illegal immigration than that of the 1980s to 2000s,” he notes. “Rather than mostly Mexicans trying to get past border agents, it’s people from all over the world turning themselves in and hoping they’ll be allowed to stay.” Read [the whole thing]( (for free). Humble Pie There comes a time in every executive’s career when they are required to eat a slice of humble pie. Sometimes the pie goes down easily, other times it leads to an unfortunate bout of corporate indigestion (ew, sorry for that visual). The catalysts for such situations usually fall under the following three categories: - Broken Promises: When David Solomon became CEO of Goldman Sachs in 2018, he shouted from the mountaintops that promoting women into senior leadership was a priority. But now, five years later, Beth Kowitt [says]( he has little to show for it. [Stephanie Cohen](, one of two women with a revenue-producing role on the firm’s 25-person management committee, announced her exit on Monday. The other, [Beth Hammack](, has already said she’s leaving. Not helping things is this [damning investigation]( by the Wall Street Journal. “If Solomon actually wants to make advancing women into Goldman’s upper ranks a priority, he can start by treating it like a real business problem and not just an optics issue,” Beth writes. - Poor Guidance: Cathie Wood’s strategic timing on artificial intelligence stocks leaves much to be desired. Not only did the Ark founder dump her Nvidia shares in early 2023 (major ouch), she [sold]( also TSMC in late February and totally missed out on the foundry’s recent melt-up as well. Now, she’s [sounding the alarm]( on chip stocks. “Given her track record, one has to take Wood’s comments with a grain of salt,” Shuli Ren [writes](. - Failure to Grasp the Big Picture: On Monday, billionaire Ron Burkle, the controlling shareholder of Soho House, sent [a letter]( to other shareholders, saying: “When we went public I believed the market would reward growth, but it seemed to quickly switch to rewarding free cash flow and profit over our top-line growth. So at this point in time we have all the costs of being a public company with few benefits.” To which Jonathan Levin [says](: “Outrageous! How dare the market focus on profit!” I’d say all three of them deserve a big ’ol slice of pie, wouldn’t you? Bonus C-Suite Reading: CEOs must beware of [a paradox](: One important geopolitical risk is overreacting to geopolitical risk. — Adrian Wooldridge “Intellectual Diversity” Last week, Indiana’s Republican governor signed [a bill]( into law that says state universities must consider “intellectual diversity” when making tenure decisions. As a person who attended a state university in Indiana (go Hoosiers!!), I have some thoughts. Having minored in political science at a time when Trump was running for office, there were ample opportunities for my teachers to provide partisan slant. Yet at no point in my college career did any of my professors reveal what political party they belonged to. I even recall one class where a student berated my teacher about his supposed political opinions, to which my professor calmly replied, “If you ever find out, then I will have failed at my job.” Of course, my undergrad experience is not reflective of every state university. But Tyler Cowen — a libertarian-leaning professor himself — [fears]( Indiana’s law “will entrench the view that academic life is and should be politicized,” when in reality it’s often not. “Under some scenarios, right-wing and conservative professors could easily end up worse off under this new system,” he argues. For instance, scholars in liberal departments could avoid hiring conservative thinkers entirely, for fear of having their tenure decisions overturned. Instead of solving a problem, the bias merely shifts to earlier in the process. Bonus Legal Reading: Republican lawmakers can’t stop [meddling]( in local matters. — Francis Wilkinson Telltale Charts Last year, all the EPA wanted was for you to drive an electric vehicle. But if the new [tailpipe emissions standards]( announced today are any indication, a hybrid will do just fine. Liam Denning [suspects]( the agency’s shift in focus represents an attempt to balance climate imperatives with consumer preferences. But “suggesting a viable, and potentially thriving, future for hybrids isn’t just designed to ease Detroit’s fears … the White House likely has the Supreme Court in mind, too.” he writes. The UK government [is trying]( to set up an independent regulator with magical powers to redistribute revenue between the Premier League and lower tiers of the football world. What would Ted Lasso make of the move? “Whether the sport’s existing governance structure is fit for purpose is a question of perspective,” Matthew Brooker [writes](. “Clearly, it has been a financial success. The global dominance of English football wasn’t preordained. The Premier League is itself a breakaway competition.” Go off, AFC Richmond: Further Reading Free read: Kamala Harris’ [visit to Puerto Rico]( is pure political theater. — Susanne Ramirez de Arellano Bump stocks [enable mass shootings](. They shouldn’t be legal. — Bloomberg’s editorial board Jerome Powell’s [words are mightier]( than the Fed’s dot plot. — Jonathan Levin Gucci [being ghosted]( by shoppers in Asia is a bad look for luxury. — Andrea Felsted The AI [assembly line]( ends with Microsoft, Google and Meta. — Parmy Olson China can still spy on American citizens [without TikTok](. — Minxin Pei AI bulls are gonna need a lot more [nuclear-power stations](. — Merryn Somerset Webb ICYMI Right-wing influencers [flock]( to Panama. Parkinson’s disease can be [identified]( through skin. Kate Middleton’s [medical record]( breach. Everyone is [flummoxed]( by Judge Cannon. Kickers The [baby names]( are out of control. Your bookshelf deserves [a glow up](. A [supervolcano]( erupted 74,000 years ago. Granny Takes a Trip is staging [a comeback](. (h/t Andrea Felsted) The Neverending Story really is [neverending](. (h/t Mike Nizza) Notes: Please send cursed baby names and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. 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