Macron’s far-right legacy for France

Marine Le Pen’s success in transforming her National Rally party may propel her to the presidency in 2027. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Emmanuel Macron has transformed French politics into a relatively straightforward question for voters: Him or Marine Le Pen. That’s worked well for the president, who twice triumphed in head-to-head votes against the far-right leader. [But what next](? The third round in the duel may not be until 2027, and term-limited Macron will need to find a substitute to contest that. But a sense of panic is already taking hold of his team. They see Le Pen’s National Rally far ahead in polls before June’s European Parliament elections. And there’s little reassurance to be had by looking around Europe, where far-right parties are making significant inroads. Meanwhile, Macron’s trick of pointing to his economic successes is wearing thin for an electorate fatigued by record inflation. Le Pen has made unrelenting progress in gradually transforming a political movement better known for its history of far-right nativism and far-out economic policies on the margins of French politics. Surveys show she is entrenched as one of the country’s most popular politicians, and — crucially in a two-round voting system — the share of people who reject her outright continues to decline. She can also rely on a growing cohort of National Rally officials who have broken through at local level, even in areas centrist parties and Macron could previously call strongholds. A far-right presidency would be a transformational moment for France, handing control of Europe’s second-largest economy to a movement that has advocated loosening ties with the European Union and, before the invasion of Ukraine, closer relations with Russia. To be sure, 2027 is a long way out, and politics can turn on one incident or gaffe. But the momentum is clearly with Le Pen and, as things stand, the French establishment doesn’t appear to have an adequate response. — [William Horobin]( Le Pen at a campaign event in Marseille this month. Photographer: Christophe Simon/AFP/Getty Images Global Must Reads Deadlock in Ukraine is “shifting the momentum” in the war in [Russia’s favor](, and Moscow is benefiting from uncertainties about military assistance from Washington and its allies, US intelligence agency officials told a Senate committee yesterday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his troops had blocked Russia’s offensive and were [stabilizing the frontline](, though the situation may change if they don’t start to get sufficient aid. India’s opposition parties accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government of [polarizing voters weeks before elections]( by implementing a citizenship law that’s seen as discriminatory against Muslims. When the law was originally passed in 2019, it triggered violent protests and panic among many Indians who risked becoming stateless without proper documentation. It was the night of the long knives at the Republican National Committee yesterday as Donald Trump’s handpicked leadership, which includes his daughter in-law Lara Trump, [fired more than 60 people]( across data, communications and political teams. As Mario Parker writes, the RNC and the former US president’s election campaign are expected to act interchangeably through the November vote. Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry resigned after gang violence [prevented him from returning]( to the country. A transitional council will appoint an interim premier and prepare for elections, said regional body Caricom, while the US pledged an additional $100 million for a Kenya-led multinational peacekeeping force awaiting deployment. Demonstrators calling for Henry’s departure in Port-au-Prince last month. Photographer: Richard Pierrin/AFP/Getty Images Senegalese opposition politician Karim Wade asked the top court to annul a decision to schedule elections for March 24, arguing [there’s not enough time]( to prepare for them. It raises the potential for another delay to a vote that was supposed to take place Feb. 25 before being canceled by President Macky Sall, setting off a political crisis. The first ship carrying aid to Gaza has set sail from Cyprus, the nation’s president, Nikos Christodoulides, said, part of a plan led by the EU, the UK, the US and the United Arab Emirates [to deliver food and medical supplies](. Legislation that would force TikTok’s Chinese parent to sell it or face a ban in the US is [picking up speed in Congress](, posing a dilemma for Republican lawmakers after Trump reversed his previous stance and suggested the app shouldn’t be banned after all. Former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam [signaled his intention]( to run for president of Ivory Coast in October next year. The EU’s executive arm will recommend [opening membership talks]( with Bosnia-Herzegovina, a big boost for the most fragile and divided of the countries that emerged after the breakup of Yugoslavia. Washington Dispatch President Joe Biden will welcome Poland’s new prime minister, Donald Tusk, and the nation’s head of state, Andrzej Duda, to the White House today. While Poland has been a crucial player in Ukraine’s struggle against the Russian invasion, the two Polish leaders are engaged in a running feud. The visit also takes place with Congress yet to act on Biden’s request for more assistance for Ukraine. Since the invasion began two years ago, Poland has become the gateway for about 80% of Western humanitarian and military aid and has seen an increase in NATO’s presence on its territory. Duda, who is also the head of his country’s armed forces, will combine his [appeal for more troops]( with requests for the US to speed up deliveries of defense equipment and to sell more advanced arms to Poland. Tusk suggested yesterday that he and his rival are aligned, at least when it comes to defense. “I differ politically with President Andrzej Duda in almost everything, but when it comes to the security of our homeland, we must and will act together,” he said in a post on X. One thing to watch today: The US consumer price index for February is expected to show an acceleration in headline inflation. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Disruptions of the world’s major trade routes, refinery closures and resurgent demand are pushing up global fuel prices and making forecasts difficult in the run-up to a US presidential election in which inflation will be a key issue. US [gasoline futures have jumped sharply]( in recent weeks and are now up by more than a fifth so far this year, while diesel in Europe has risen 10%. And Finally Russian President Vladimir Putin may carry out a significant government shake-up for the first time since 2020 after this week’s election that he’s certain to win. That’s causing nervousness among the country’s political and business elites, who are feverishly [jostling for position]( as Putin surrounds himself with loyalists to pursue his war in Ukraine. While the Kremlin hasn’t yet finalized a list of names and appointments, several potential changes are likely for his new term, sources say. Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu attend a wreath-laying ceremony in Moscow last month. Photographer: Alexander Kazakov/AFP/Getty Images More from Bloomberg - [The Year of Elections](, Bloomberg’s new newsletter on the votes that matter to markets, business and policy amid the most fragmented geo-economic landscape in decades - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. 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