Wargaming a European food crisis

European officials and experts are confronting the possibility of something barely on the radar a few years ago: a full-blown food crisis [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. “Expect a level of chaos. You may be confused at times.” That’s how European officials, food experts and industry representatives were greeted last month in Brussels as they embarked on a wargaming exercise for a scenario barely on the radar a few years ago: [a full-blown food crisis](. Distressing images of fictitious supply shocks followed. Multiple harvest failures, a palm oil export ban to the region, grain farmers in Ukraine and Russia going to war. Months later, shortages kicked in, prices soared. Thieves were looting supermarkets and police struggled to contain riots. Is the European Union a sinking ship, someone asks in the video? It’s all the fault of “liberal elites,” someone else says. Stress testing is a common feature in the banking industry, but almost non-existent when it comes to food. Europe is one of the best-fed regions in the world and to see it tackle such a worst-case scenario underscores a growing level of anxiety about securing supplies. And yet that comes as little surprise. In the space of four years, multiple shocks have shaken up the way food is grown, distributed and consumed. The coronavirus pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and disruption on key shipping routes have disturbed supply chains and sent prices soaring. And, of course, climate change is hurting farmers. Europe is in a relatively comfortable position when it comes to feeding its people. It’s a huge agrifood exporter. But it has its vulnerabilities, most notably a dependence on imports of feed crops like soy to support its vast livestock industry. Governments are no longer asking when a food crisis may arrive, but rather how many they can deal with at once.— [Agnieszka de Sousa]( The Food Alert workshop in Brussels last month. Source: Centre for Systems Solutions Global Must Reads It’s looking like the presidential election few Americans want, with incumbent Joe Biden and Republican frontrunner Donald Trump [dominating the Super Tuesday]( nominating contests. For Democrats, there’s concern about the ability of an 81-year-old man to continue in office. Regarding Trump, there are myriad legal woes, inflammatory statements about minorities and immigrants, and what critics say are authoritarian plans for a second term. Personal tax cuts will be at the center of UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt’s annual budget today as he tries to deliver on Conservative demands for [a pre-election giveaway](, sources say. The Tories are trailing the opposition Labour Party badly in the polls ahead of a national vote due in the next 11 months. President Xi Jinping’s paramount status as China’s leader was evident as his name appeared in his government’s annual work report 16 times this year, the most since he took office more than a decade ago. Premier Li Qiang [name checked his boss]( yesterday more than his predecessor did in all the reports he delivered to the National People’s Congress’ annual gathering over a decade. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s reelection appears almost certain in a vote set for July 28 as his main rival, María Corina Machado, [remains banned from public office](. Much is still undecided, such as whether credible opposition candidates can participate and whether international observers will be allowed to monitor. War in Sudan has put food security at risk for 25 million people across the North African country, South Sudan and Chad, making it [the biggest hunger crisis]( globally, World Food Programme Executive Director Cindy McCain warned. Fighting between the army and paramilitary forces over the past 10 months has killed more than 12,000 people and forced 9 million others to flee their homes, creating the world’s largest displacement emergency. Russia launched its biggest drone attack on Ukraine in more than three weeks, with [damage to energy infrastructure]( cutting power for 14,000 consumers in parts of the western Khmelnytskyi region. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban wants to discuss with Trump in Florida this week [how to end the war on Ukraine](, Orban’s foreign minister said. South Korean police began questioning key figures in a walkout by thousands of doctors who oppose a plan to increase medical school enrollments, as the government [prepares to punish]( those who defy orders to return to work. Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who’s been missing in action as [his nation descended into chaos](, arrived in Puerto Rico as he attempted to make his way back to his country. Washington Dispatch Candidates for the US Senate in the battleground state of Arizona confront a transformed campaign landscape today after the incumbent, Kyrsten Sinema, [announced she won’t run]( for a second term. The departure of Sinema, who in 2022 switched her party affiliation from Democrat to independent, means that the race will likely become a contest between Kari Lake, a Republican and relentless champion of Trump, and Representative Ruben Gallego, a progressive Democrat. Sinema sided with Democrats on most votes and helped forge a failed border measure with Republican senators. Both candidates reacted swiftly to the contest’s new dynamic. Gallego released a statement praising Sinema — and fired off an appeal to donors. Lake, who refused to concede her loss in Arizona’s 2022 gubernatorial race and happened to be on Capitol Hill yesterday to meet GOP senators, applauded Sinema for the times she defied Senate Democrats and argued that she was best qualified to replace her. Sinema’s narrow victory in 2018 proved crucial to the Democrats’ tenuous hold over the Senate beginning in 2021. As the party faces several tough races this year, Arizona has become essential to any strategy of holding the chamber. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senator Gary Peters, who runs the party’s campaign operation, acclaimed Sinema’s “tenacity and energy,” then quickly highlighted Gallego’s candidacy. One thing to watch today: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell begins two days of testimony on Capitol Hill. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Ukraine’s top energy official [appeared to rule out]( any commercial agreements to allow Russian natural gas to continue flowing through the country after the current transit deal lapses at the end of the year. The EU and Ukraine have said they won’t renegotiate the existing contract, but some market participants are optimistic about the possibility of private deals. Russia halted most of its pipeline supplies to Europe in the wake of its invasion, but some flows continue and cover the majority of demand in countries including Austria, Hungary and Slovakia. And Finally Hedvig Frederiksen remembers little about the day her Danish headmistress sent the girls from her class to a hospital in Paamiut in Greenland. Just 14 at the time, she had been [fitted with an intrauterine]( device, commonly known as a coil, a procedure carried out on thousands of Inuit girls by the Danish government to curb population growth in its former colony. Now she is one of 143 women suing the Danish state, claiming that for decades it violated the Inuit women’s human rights through its so-called family planning efforts. The Greenland town of Ilulissat, then known as Jacobshaven, in 1972. 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