5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas

Good morning. Further records in stock markets, more raised targets for stock indexes and Bitcoin keeps rising. Here’s what’s moving markets [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Good morning. Further records in stock markets, more raised targets for stock indexes and Bitcoin keeps rising. Here’s what’s moving markets. — [Sam Unsted]( More stock records US stock futures are muted heading into the session, following a chipmaker-driven surge for the Nasdaq 100 on Friday and with the S&P notching up its 15th record close of the year. Japan’s Nikkei 225 benchmark [surpassed the 40,000-point mark for the first time]( earlier, opening the door to more gains and causing at least one trading app to briefly crash as its customers rushed in. Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s top chip foundry, [also hit a new all-time high]( as it tracked the bounce for semiconductor stocks in the Nasdaq and benefited from the optimism on AI growth. Higher stock targets The stream of index records this year has strategists racing to [increase their targets for the S&P 500](, with Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian the latest to do so. “Bull markets end with euphoria — we’re not there yet,” Subramanian said. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin agrees, saying that the big tech-led rally is backed by fundamentals and [doesn’t resemble past bubbles](. Bond traders, meanwhile, are still [looking to snap up US debt]( on the assumption that the US economy will eventually slow. Losses in bond markets since 2021, however, have [all but wiped out any extra gains]( over cash for the last decade. Strong earnings The strength of corporate earnings has also helped the mood, with more than three-quarters of S&P 500 firms [surprising to the upside](, even if Nvidia took the most plaudits. The chipmaker has been the center of the bull run, but [warnings are starting to emerge]( about the risk of seeing the stock as a limitless bet on the future of AI. Apple, however, is seeing increased bearishness from analysts, with Goldman Sachs [removing it from its conviction list](. Bitcoin euphoria Bitcoin isn’t quite at a new record [but it is getting closer](, topping $65,000 and continuing to benefit from the strong demand for the spot exchange-traded funds which were launched in January. The blistering rally for the digital asset is [causing record inflows into the ETFs](, with the products from BlackRock and Fidelity attracting the most money and others cutting fees to keep up. Amid that, the resistance to crypto on Wall Street is [disappearing day-by-day](. China meeting Chinese Premier Li Qiang will not hold a press briefing at the country’s National’s People’s Congress, [the first time a sitting premier has done so since 1993](. That will remove a rare platform for investors to learn more about the policy direction of the country, as President Xi Jinping consolidates control. At the event on Tuesday, the government is set to announce its [growth target and outline its strategy]( to support the slowing economy, though economists don’t predict any “bazooka-type stimulus.” What We’ve Been Reading This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - The Daybreak podcast delves into Congress's [plan to avert a shutdown](. - Wall Street [retreats on diversity and inclusion](. - Macy’s gets a [new buyout offer]( 14% above the previous bid. - The Weiss multi-strategy hedge fund plans [to shut after 46 years](. - Tesla’s China shipments [hit the lowest level]( in more than a year. And finally, here's what Joe’s interested in this morning Good morning. As of the time I'm writing this, Bitcoin is up another 6% over the last 25 hours and 27% over the last week. Some smaller, more exotic coins are up way more. Shiba Inu is up 180% over the last week. The memecoin [dogwifhat](, whose icon is a dog with a hat, is up 400% over the last week. There's no doubt that it's speculation season. Both Robinhood and Coinbase are near the top of the Apple app store rankings again. If you look at measures of weekly call options volume traded, recent weeks have been at or near the highest levels ever. The main thing I'm thinking about is that we need to go back and rethink everything that we called a "ZIRP Phenomenon" a few years ago. So many aspects of speculative excess were chalked up to low rates, and yet here we are and all this is happening with rates over 5%. Seriously, it's time for some revisionism. One thing I'll say on the monetary front. While it's true that we're not at ZIRP anymore, and in fact we're nowhere close to it, we do seem to be in this spot where the main theme in the market has been heat — faster growth, hotter inflation, risk assets up — and the dominant talk from Fed officials is still focused on cuts. [The latest Fedspeak Monitor from Employ America]( helpfully collates some of the recent comments on the January data: - Mester: “It really doesn’t change my calculus” - Collins: "Expecting all data to speak uniformly is too high a bar." - Barkin: "I’ve disciplined myself to not look at January too closely," citing weather, seasonality issues and past January data being distorted by Omicron - Goolsbee: "One month is no months… I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a lot of noise component in it" So yeah, it's clear that all of this speculative mania isn't strictly a ZIRP thing. On the other hand it's interesting that by and large, the Fed is still cut-oriented at some point this year. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on X [@TheStalwart]( Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. [Bloomberg Markets Wrap: The latest on what's moving global markets. Tap to read.]( Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things to Start Your Day: Americas Edition newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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