Breaking climate promises

Politicians tap into the backlash against green policies [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. At the COP28 climate summit in December, countries struck a historic deal, agreeing for the first time to shift away from fossil fuels. They also pledged to speed up their efforts “in this critical decade” to reach net zero by 2050. That promise is being [thrown into doubt]( as politicians in the US and across Europe backpedal on climate goals — sometimes vowing to jettison them altogether — ahead of elections this year. On both sides of the Atlantic, voters are anxious about the cost of living, while green regulations are starting to affect the stuff of daily life — what cars people buy and how they heat their homes. Sensing discontent, right-wing leaders including Donald Trump and Alice Weidel of Germany’s anti-immigrant AfD party have bashed climate policies as a costly waste. Both Trump and the AfD have a history of denying the scientific consensus that global warming is caused by humans. But even parties with clear climate commitments are backtracking: In the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives opposed expanding London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone, and he’s criticized “ideological zealots” as he uses environmental action as a means of attacking the opposition Labour Party. The global energy transition [won’t screech to a halt]( if Trump becomes president again and hard-right parties gain ground in Europe. Trillions of dollars have been invested in the push already. But the US and the European Union are the world’s second- and third-biggest emitters after China. If they were to pull back, it would signal to other countries that it’s okay to go slower — when science says the opposite. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that emissions cuts must be rapid and deep this decade if the world is to avoid calamitous levels of warming. A few years of backsliding would leave a mark on the planet for much longer. —[Amanda Kolson Hurley]( Fighting a wildfire approaching homes near Hemet, California, in September 2022.  Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images Global Must Reads US President Joe Biden said a temporary cease-fire between Israel and Hamas could begin as soon as the start of next week, adding that “we’re close.” Discussions on Israel agreeing to pause the war in Gaza [in exchange for the release of more hostages]( held by Hamas have intensified in recent days. Israeli officials continue to say that they will launch an offensive on the southern Gaza city of Rafah. The EU will aim to make as much as half of its [defense system purchases]( within the bloc by 2035, reversing a trend of buying most military equipment from third countries, under draft proposals from its executive, Alberto Nardelli and Natalia Drozdiak report. At a summit in Paris yesterday, France and the Netherlands backed a Czech [plan to buy ammunition]( outside Europe to accelerate aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20. Photographer: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images Vilified by the authorities as “hedonists” over their lavish lifestyles, finance workers in China are rethinking their careers. President Xi Jinping’s [“common prosperity” drive]( is hitting bonuses and salaries while a corruption probe is unnerving the entire industry. This is adding to indications that Xi is shifting away from four decades of market-oriented reforms as he sets about building “a modern financial system with Chinese characteristics.” In his first stint as Brazilian president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva managed to satisfy both poorer voters and Wall Street investors with his economic stewardship, and so far [he’s pulled off the same trick](. The question, as Andrew Rosati and Maria Eloisa Capurro report, is whether he can maintain that balancing act as challenges mount through 2024. Senegalese President Macky Sall has proposed an amnesty for protesters arrested since 2021, a move that could [lead to the release]( of main opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, who’s been in detention for the past seven months for allegedly fueling deadly protests. Sall was commenting at the start of talks meant to end a political crisis and finalize a new date for delayed elections. Hong Kong activists staged a small but rare public protest against their government’s decision to enact a domestic security law [during a senior Chinese official’s visit]( to the Asian financial hub. North Korea has shipped containers that could hold millions of artillery shells to Russia, a top South Korean official said, potentially helping Vladimir Putin to [maintain his invasion]( of Ukraine as Kyiv’s stocks of ammunition dwindle. The average favorable rating for Trump hit its highest level since before the 2022 midterm elections, as the former US president [marches toward a likely November rematch]( against a less popular Biden. Washington Dispatch Voters in Michigan will cast ballots in the battleground state’s primary today as Trump pursues an all-but-certain third Republican presidential nomination. On the Democratic side, Biden is trying to avoid an embarrassing [rebuke from Arab-Americans]( and others over his support for Israel in its war against Hamas. The president’s critics have urged Democrats to either not vote or cast their ballots for “uncommitted.” Representative Debbie Dingell, a Michigan Democrat, told CBS News’ Face the Nation over the weekend that the Arab-American community “is pretty angry right now,” and she knew families who had “lost 20 or 40 members” in the Gaza fighting. Top administration officials met Arab and Muslim community leaders in Michigan this month, but pro-Palestinian protesters have heckled Biden at events in several other states. While he has stepped up criticism of the extent of Israel’s military campaign, the US last week blocked a United Nations Security Council resolution supporting a cease-fire in Gaza. The [president’s path to another victory]( in Michigan — which Trump won in 2016 and Biden carried by about 150,000 votes in 2020 — involves assembling a broad cohort including Arab-Americans but also union members, Black and suburban voters, one campaign official said. One thing to watch today: The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer sentiment is expected to show an improvement in February. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Iran reduced its stockpile of near bomb-grade uranium over the past three months, a move that [could ease some fears]( over a wider Middle East conflict as Tehran’s allies trade fire with US forces. Nuclear inspectors from the UN watchdog told diplomats yesterday that Iran’s level of highly enriched uranium has dropped 5% since November, compared with a 5% increase during the previous quarter. And Finally A massive change is afoot that could upend the supply chain for cocoa and jolt prices for sweets, skin-care products and herbal medicines. Starting Dec. 30, the EU will require companies such as Cargill, Ferrero Group, Nestle and Mars to prove that none of the beans they import to the continent [contribute to deforestation]( elsewhere. “There is a gun to our head to set up systems and get ready,” said Paul Davis, president of the European Cocoa Association lobby group. Workers unload cocoa beans at a rebagging plant in San Pedro, Ivory Coast. Photographer: Paul Ninson/Bloomberg More from Bloomberg - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - Check out our [Bloomberg Investigates]( film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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