Putin’s take on Trump

Assessments suggest Russia may be 3 years from an attack on a NATO neighbor [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Vladimir Putin and his NATO foes have something in common: The looming shadow of Donald Trump is burnishing their affection for the current US president. “He’s a more experienced person, he’s predictable, he’s an old-style politician,” was how the Russian leader praised Joe Biden in a TV interview, his tongue only gently in cheek, when asked which of the two leading candidates would be [better for Russia](. The incumbent is also more likely to [honor NATO writ]( — notably the article compelling members to come to each others’ defense if attacked — giving Europeans their own reasons to prefer Biden over Trump. At a time when they’re facing an unpredictable adversary in Russia, the last thing the countries of Europe need is unpredictable friends. That’s partly why they’re pushing ahead with their years-long mission to become a standalone military power. But they’re still a long way off that target, and the gap is looking hard to bridge. Even in the best-case scenario — one in which all NATO members meet their defense-spending goals — the continent is still 10 years away from being able to defend itself, sources say. Russia may be a [mere three years]( from being able to launch an attack on a NATO neighbor. So alliance members are belatedly pulling out the stops. But they’re held back by supply-chain issues, and one singularly Trumpian concern: protectionism. Germany and France, the continent’s two biggest powers, disagree over whether to purchase weapons from overseas or take the slower route of procuring in Europe. Many officials think the answer lies in EU-level coordination and are even mooting the establishment of battalions answerable to Brussels. The annual Munich Security Conference, beginning tomorrow, may show how much progress they can make on reaching these goals. — [Isobel Finkel]( An image of Putin is displayed as Biden speaks at the White House in June 2022. Photographer: Drew Angerer/Getty Images Global Must Reads Canada, Australia and New Zealand said they’re “[gravely concerned](” about a potential Israeli military operation in southern Gaza’s Rafah city, as the US allies warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against an offensive. Netanyahu refused to send a delegation to Egypt for [follow-up talks]( aimed at securing a cease-fire with Hamas, saying the militant group’s “delusional” demands have to change before negotiations can advance. Taiwan defended its maritime operation that led to the death of two Chinese fishermen and [prompted condemnation from China](, which claims the island as its territory. The fatalities occurred after a China-registered speedboat carrying four people capsized yesterday off the coast of Taiwan’s Kinmen island during a chase after it refused inspection, Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration said. Soldiers during a military exercise in Taiwan in July 2023. Photographer: I-Hwa Cheng/Bloomberg Rishi Sunak faces a double electoral test today that could trigger further division in his Conservative Party and undermine his bid to stop the Labour Party from taking power in a UK-wide vote expected this year. Losing either of the special elections would be a [major setback]( for the prime minister, given the Tories are defending a significant majority in both. Procter & Gamble’s $300 million diaper production line near Lagos was hailed in 2017 as a symbol of Nigeria’s economic ambitions. In December, the company said it was leaving, and it’s not alone. Global consumer goods conglomerates are [exiting Africa’s most-populous nation]( as a plunging currency and rampant inflation slash profits, while a scarcity of dollars mean they are unable to repatriate earnings. As Southeast Asia’s largest economy, holder of the world’s biggest nickel reserves and a key member of the Global South, Indonesia serves as a swing state on geopolitical problems like Russia’s war in Ukraine and has become increasingly important for the energy transition. Read [our analysis]( on the potential impact of Prabowo Subianto, the 72-year-old ex-general, becoming the nation's next president. US intelligence shows that Russia is discussing the possibility of basing a [nuclear weapon in space](, sources say, a finding that emerged after a top House Republican publicly warned of an unspecified national-security threat. Venezuela’s decision to arrest Rocío San Miguel, a well-known military analyst and government critic, was denounced by the United Nations and the US, which was already threatening to reimpose economic sanctions over the government’s [treatment of opponents](. Trump is set to appear in a Manhattan court today in the prosecution over his alleged hush-money payments to a porn star, just as major developments come to a head in at least [three closely-watched cases]( against the former president. Washington Dispatch Tom Suozzi, the New York Democrat who flipped a House seat in a [special election](, will be sworn in at the end of the month, giving the Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson, even less room to maneuver with a smaller majority. Suozzi’s victory in a district that includes parts of Nassau County and the New York City borough of Queens sent ripples across Washington’s political and policy ecosystems. It came as the House must take up spending legislation to avoid a government shutdown. And he supports assistance for Israel and Ukraine, another issue that remains unresolved. At the same time, Suozzi’s campaign to replace George Santos could perhaps give Democrats a way to turn an issue that Republicans have been using against them — immigration — into an advantage. Although his opponent, Mazi Pilip, assailed him relentlessly over border security and tried to lash him to Biden’s policies, Suozzi counterattacked by blaming Republicans for rejecting a hard-fought immigration agreement at the behest of Trump. Of course, one election outcome in one part of the country doesn’t augur success elsewhere. Suozzi is a familiar face on Long Island who has represented the district previously so it remains to be seen whether other Democrats can be as deft. One thing to watch today: Growth in retail sales is expected to slow in January. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Google plans to help track and attribute [methane emissions]( observed by a satellite that’s scheduled to blast into orbit on a SpaceX rocket next month. The tech giant will harness its artificial intelligence and mapping expertise and apply it to data from the Environmental Defense Fund’s MethaneSAT in a bid to reduce some of the world’s most devastating and avoidable greenhouse gas emissions. And Finally As governments in Europe ban some short-haul flights and cities finance mass transit to discourage driving, the continent’s railways are clearly a safe and low-carbon way to travel. The problem is [a warming world brings threats to rail]( — heat bends tracks, floods collapse embankments, and erosion eats away at seaside cliffs. While national policies are pushing people toward trains, Olivia Rudgard writes, they aren’t backing it up with the needed investment to make it work at a time of rapid climate change. Sun simulation at the Rail Tec Arsenal facility in Vienna, Austria. Photographer: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg More from Bloomberg - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [India Edition](, an insider’s guide to the emerging economic powerhouse, and the billionaires and businesses behind its rise - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Business of Sports](, delivering the context you need on the collision of power, money and sports - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? 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