Growing fears of a global conflict

Risign conflicts are stoking fears of a global conflict [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Are we headed for a new global conflict? References to it are proliferating – and it’s easy to see why. The Israel-Hamas war that’s raging on with no end in sight, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, North Korea’s test barrages of new missiles on an almost weekly basis, and growing tensions in the Pacific over China’s muscle flexing and its territorial claim on Taiwan. The list goes on. While the US insists it won’t be [dragged into a deeper conflict]( in the Middle East, it’s vowing more strikes against groups supported by Iran after three days of retaliatory attacks in response to assaults on its bases in the region. That’s as the US and UK are targeting Houthi rebels in Yemen for disrupting shipping in the Red Sea. President Joe Biden is under pressure to take more muscular action against Tehran after the killing of three American soldiers in Jordan by Iranian-backed militants. And his administration’s search for a diplomatic pause to the conflict in Gaza has so far failed. Biden is facing a difficult bid for reelection in November, likely against his predecessor Donald Trump whose Republican party has rewritten its historical commitment to allies by holding up vital military aid for Ukraine in the name of partisan politics. Should Trump win, the current US drive to deprive Beijing of the ability to produce and access the most advanced semiconductors — part of Washington’s efforts to curb its geopolitical rival — will probably accelerate. China, Russia and the so-called Global South developing countries don’t agree on everything, but they do share a desire to end, or at least seriously overhaul, the US-led system of international rules. It all adds to the cocktail of conflicts that are upending the post-Cold War order and threatening further global instability. While some of the rhetoric about a world war may be overblown, there are real risks. The room for miscalculation is narrowing.  — [Karl Maier]( Displaced Palestinians pass an Israeli tank in southern Gaza on Jan. 30. Photographer: Mahmud Hams/Getty Images Global Must Reads President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he’s considering broad leadership changes in Ukraine that go [beyond the military](, while acknowledging that his country’s war effort to turn back Russia’s invasion has stalled. Zelenskiy’s comments in an Italian television interview, while vague, marked his first public response to questions about the fate of Ukraine’s top army general, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, amid speculation over his imminent removal. Nayib Bukele looks set to win a second presidential term in El Salvador as a partial count in yesterday’s ballot showed voters backing his draconian anti-gang policies by [an overwhelming majority](. The 42-year-old former publicist has used emergency powers to lock up tens of thousands of alleged gangsters over the past two years, with some human rights groups criticizing the lack of due process. Bukele supporters celebrate yesterday in San Salvador. Photographer: Camilo Freedman/Bloomberg Senators reached a bipartisan deal yesterday to impose new US immigration restrictions and [unlock $60 billion in Ukraine aid](, a crucial step even as the measure faces long odds of being approved in the House. The Senate plans a first procedural vote on Wednesday, but Trump vehemently opposes it, as do many House conservatives. China is pursuing a corruption probe into one of its top nuclear fuel experts, a move that comes as President Xi Jinping’s [purge roils the nation’s defense establishment](. US spies believe the decision was a response to the discovery of widespread graft in the military. Worsening attacks in the Red Sea have quickly unwound some of the gains in removing supply-chain bottlenecks threatening to choke the recovery in global exports. Bloomberg’s Trade Tracker shows [sentiment is souring]( amid fears the improvement in trade could be short-lived as the Houthis steadily ramp up their strikes on commercial vessels. Turkey said Vladimir Putin is expected to visit soon, in what would be the [Russian president’s first trip]( to a NATO-member country since the invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin is considering an interview with Putin by former [Fox News host Tucker Carlson](, who is visiting Moscow. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz voiced for the first time [that things aren’t going to plan](, with an ailing economy, a self-inflicted budget crisis and an electoral menace from the far-right. Senegal’s lawmakers will examine a bill today to extend Macky Sall’s mandate until the next election after the president [proposed postponing]( the Feb. 25 polls for six months. Washington Dispatch The House Rules Committee meets today to consider a resolution to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas “for high crimes and misdemeanors.” [Articles of impeachment]( have already been approved by the Homeland Security Committee and the full House is scheduled to vote later this week. If either or both of the two articles passes, Mayorkas would become the first cabinet officer to be impeached in nearly 150 years. Republicans who control the chamber blame Mayorkas, the first immigrant and first Latino to lead his department, for record-high migrant crossings at the US-Mexico border during much of Biden’s term. They accuse him of failing to enforce US immigration laws and breaching public trust. Democrats, in turn, accused the majority of weaponizing impeachment after the House twice impeached Trump as president when Democrats controlled the chamber. Many scholars say Mayorkas’ actions don’t meet the “high crimes and misdemeanors” standard set out in the Constitution. Ernesto Castañeda, director of the Center for Latin American and Latino Studies at American University, called the case “weak,” pointing out that “Mayorkas met multiple times with the senators trying to reach a deal on immigration, which included many Republicans.” The effort to oust Mayorkas will certainly fail in the Democratic-controlled Senate, where even some Republicans have said it would do nothing to resolve problems at the border. One thing to watch today: Biden returns to Washington after attending fundraisers in California and Nevada and winning a decisive victory in the South Carolina primary over the weekend. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day The number of ships sailing under the flag of Gabon is surging as the US steps up scrutiny on other nations associated [with so-called dark-fleet vessels](, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward AI. And Finally When the richest man in Eastern Europe, Petr Kellner, died in a helicopter crash, hardly anyone knew his wife’s name. Nearly three years later, Renata Kellnerova is [now synonymous]( with the PPF conglomerate — a Prague-based telecommunications, media, financial services and e-commerce empire that employs 61,000 people and operates in 25 countries. “The first priority was to secure the stability of PPF, and then start developing the business again,” she said in an email exchange with Bloomberg News. “I realized that PPF is personal for me.” Kellnerova with her late husband in Prague in 2020. Photographer: Roman Vondrous/CTK/AP Photo Thanks to the 50 people who answered Friday’s quiz and congratulations to Juan Antonio, who was the first person to name China as the country which warned its students to be careful when flying through Washington Dulles International Airport after it said “many” were interrogated there by border agents. More from Bloomberg - [India Edition](, an insider’s guide to the emerging economic powerhouse, and the billionaires and businesses behind its rise - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Business of Sports](, delivering the context you need on the collision of power, money and sports - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? 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