The deepening Middle East quagmire

How will Biden respond to the deaths of American soldiers? [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. The US is in danger of slipping deeper into a Middle East quagmire. It’s a dilemma President Joe Biden wanted to avoid in an election year. But a weekend drone attack by militants believed to be linked to Iran that killed three American soldiers at a base in Jordan [means a US response]( is all but inevitable. Iran called allegations of its involvement in the incident near the borders of Iraq and Syria “baseless.” A direct hit on Iran is fraught with risk. One possibility is covert action that would see the US strike Iran to send a message without directly acknowledging involvement. The Biden administration could also target Iranian officials, as then-President Donald Trump did when he ordered the killing of General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in 2020. A response that falls short risks undermining perceptions of US power and would leave Biden open to Republican charges of weakness. The latest violence comes as the US is pushing a deal for Hamas, which is also backed by Iran, to release the remaining hostages it took in its [Oct. 7 attack on Israel]( in exchange for a cease-fire in Gaza that could last at least two months and get more aid into the devastated territory. Another Iranian-backed group — the Yemen-based Houthis — has continued to attack commercial shipping through the Red Sea despite airstrikes by the US and its allies. Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based group and Tehran’s most powerful proxy, has limited its engagement so far to cross-border fire with Israel. Amid the spreading ripple effects of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, the working assumption is that calming that conflict can avert further escalation in the region. But the deeper Washington gets drawn into a confrontation with Tehran, the greater the danger that the US-Iran confrontation will take on its own momentum. — [Sylvia Westall]( A rally in Tehran to support the Palestinian people and Houthis on Jan. 12. Photographer: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images Global Must Reads After winning confirmation to the post of European Commission president five years ago by the narrowest margin in European Union history, Ursula von der Leyen positively surprised many, Jorge Valero reports. Yet in subsequently gathering more power than any predecessor, she has [proved a controversial leader]( of the EU executive at a time of mounting challenges to the 27-nation bloc, casting doubt over any bid for a second term. France’s powerful farming unions threatened to block highways around Paris today after the government [failed to appease them]( with promises of additional aid. Farmers angry over rising production costs and stringent European regulations have been choking roadways for more than a week, joining similarly irate counterparts protesting in nations such as Germany and Poland. A banner reads ‘Here Begins The Country Of Agricultural Resistance’ at a roadblock in Carbonne on Jan. 24. Photographer: Matthieu Rondel/Bloomberg Vulnerable Democrats in swing states are worried that Biden’s policies to fight climate change risk turning off cost-conscious moderate voters they need to win the November presidential election. His plans to slash power-plant pollution, boost electric-vehicle sales and pause natural-gas exports are popular with climate activists [but politically poisonous]( for some congressional Democrats. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s backsliding on his promise of free and fair elections is likely to prompt the Biden administration [to reimpose some sanctions]( but probably not the stiffest ones related to oil, analysts say. Washington still has plenty of incentives to continue negotiating with the Venezuelan leader and to keep a more lenient policy in place. Taiwan faces the risk that its dwindling band of allies shrinks further, as another country may switch its diplomatic recognition to Beijing. Ties with the Pacific nation of Tuvalu [have been cast into doubt]( following an election in which the incumbent prime minister lost his seat in Parliament. North Korea tested what it billed as newly developed cruise missiles for use in submarines, with leader Kim Jong Un [overseeing the launch]( and ramping up rhetoric about a potential conflict with the US and South Korea. The Chinese Embassy in the US warned students from the Asian nation to be careful when flying through Washington Dulles International Airport after it said [“many” were interrogated]( there by border agents or sent back to China. Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko backed his deputy for next month’s presidential election [after being barred]( from competing. Washington Dispatch The US House returns to work today with Speaker Mike Johnson struggling to pass a tax-cutting bill that big business badly wants and some fellow Republicans oppose. At the same time, he’s aligning himself with Trump and the party’s right flank against an emerging deal in the Senate [regarding the southern border]( and assistance to Ukraine. Johnson presides over an even narrower majority than his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, leaving him fewer opportunities to compromise. The tax measure, which provides breaks for large corporations and expanded credits for children, is the kind of legislation that Republicans used to relish, yet some conservatives demand that Johnson reject it — arguing, for example, that undocumented migrants might be able to take advantage of it. Beyond that, they fear that Democrats could trumpet the bill’s enactment as a victory for Biden. As for the border, Johnson has dismissed a bipartisan agreement being forged in the Senate, even though its specific provisions have yet to be officially made public. He’s also pressing ahead with an impeachment vote against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who Republicans accuse of ignoring immigration laws. Mayorkas’s department has called the impeachment effort a distraction. One thing to watch today: A verdict is expected in the New York civil fraud trial against Trump. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Three junta-led nations in West Africa are withdrawing from the region’s political and economic bloc, [further isolating]( their military regimes. Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso said the Economic Community of West African States was under the influence of “foreign powers” and had become a “threat” to its members. Ecowas had sanctioned the countries for recent coups. And Finally Around the world, governments have done little to alleviate the burden of childcare falling disproportionately on women, with the economy suffering as a result. Given the choice of working just to afford daycare, women are opting to reduce their hours, forego promotions, or drop out entirely, while others are deciding to have fewer children, or none at all. For a look at the effects of higher child care costs in five countries, and the ways in which mothers are being forced to make tradeoffs between their families and jobs, click [here](. Only 30% of children in Brazil younger than 3 are enrolled in daycare. Photographer: Maira Erlich/Bloomberg Thanks to the 41 people who answered Friday’s quiz and congratulations to Lauren Shute, who was the first to name Singapore as the country long considered a haven of clean governance that has been rocked by an investigation that has toppled one of its most senior politicians. More from Bloomberg - Check out our [Bloomberg Investigates]( film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? 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