Putin, Zelenskiy hug friends closer

Russia and Ukraine depend even more on their friends [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Vladimir Putin are hugging their friends close as Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its third year. Ukraine’s president [was the hot ticket]( at the World Economic Forum in Davos, seeking to reinvigorate support among the global business and political elite against the Russian leader Zelenskiy labeled a “predator.” Putin hosted North Korea’s foreign minister at the Kremlin yesterday amid US and South Korean allegations that Pyongyang is supplying Russia with massive amounts of artillery shells and missiles to continue bombarding Ukraine. For all the warmth toward Zelenskiy in the Swiss Alps, more than $100 billion in military aid and financial support for Ukraine from the US and the European Union remains frozen by political disputes in Washington and Brussels. That’s encouraged Putin to believe the war is turning in his favor as Russia cranks up defense production and he moves to secure another term in March presidential elections. It may not be so simple. Economic pressures are building in Russia, not least from labor shortages exacerbated by the war. While [sanctioned states North Korea]( and Iran are helping Putin, their support is conditional. Big players such as China and India continue to hold back. The US and particularly European states, meanwhile, have a direct security interest in ensuring Russia doesn’t defeat Ukraine. History may not favor Putin either. A Bloomberg Intelligence study found most wars lasting more than two years in the past two centuries resulted either in a loss or a stalemate for the aggressor, with its odds of victory worsening the longer a conflict went on. That’s little comfort to Ukrainians in cities pounded by Russian missiles and drones. The battlefield is at a brutal stalemate. Putin is making clear he isn’t going away in 2024. Despite war fatigue among allies after the disappointment of Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive, Zelenskiy needs his friends more than ever. Zelenskiy and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the “CEOs for Ukraine” session in Davos. Photographer: Stefan Wermuth/Bloomberg Global Must Reads An Israel-Hamas deal has been reached to deliver medicine and other humanitarian aid to residents of Gaza in exchange for medication being provided to hostages held by Hamas since its Oct. 7 attack on Israel, the Qatari government said. The [supplies are to be flown]( into Egypt today before entering the Gaza Strip. Rishi Sunak’s hold over his UK Conservative Party appears [to be more tenuous by the day](. The resignation of two party deputy chairmen highlights the mounting opposition to the prime minister’s signature anti-immigration bill from right-wing rebels who see a crackdown on migrants as critical to their chances of staying in power after an election expected this year. The proposal faces a possible defeat in a crunch parliamentary vote today. The US and South Korea have agreed to discuss funding for American troops this year, local media reported, a step that could ease friction between the allies after former President Donald Trump once demanded the government in Seoul pay five times more than the current $1 billion to host the soldiers. The [talks are being sped up]( to try to reach a pact ahead of a potential new Trump administration taking office. With an eye to countering the far right, President Emmanuel Macron laid out a [strikingly conservative vision for France]( as he seeks to revive support for his government. Macron used his third national press conference at the Elysee Palace since being elected in 2017 to tout security, stronger borders, more police on the streets, a stepped up fight against drug trafficking and a more flexible labor market. The three top contenders in the all-male race for president in Indonesia had all been seeking the [endorsement of a woman](: Khofifah Indar Parawansa, the governor of East Java, the nation’s second-largest province. Last week she threw her support behind the leader in polls for the February vote, Ganjar Pranowo, a former general who rose through the powerful military under the patronage of the late dictator Suharto. Khofifah Indar Parawansa. Photographer: Robertus Pudyanto/Getty Images Israeli President Isaac Herzog headed to Davos today with [family members of hostages]( held by Hamas in Gaza to step up pressure for their release. A temporary spending bill to prevent a [partial US government shutdown]( on Saturday passed its first procedural test in the Senate yesterday, a sign that the legislation is on track to be approved in time to meet the deadline. Kosovo’s defense chief said the Balkan nation will be better defended with an influx of US-supplied anti-tank missiles four months [after a violent clash]( in the country’s north dramatically escalated tensions with Serbia. Washington Dispatch President Joe Biden plans to meet today with congressional leaders in his latest attempt [to reach agreement on US assistance]( for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The gathering occurs as House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and other top Republicans and Democrats from both chambers are rushing to pass the short-term spending bill. That measure, however, does not include the foreign aid, which has been held up by members of Johnson’s right flank who demand new restrictions on immigration and tighter controls at the US border with Mexico. Many of their proposals are unacceptable to Democrats. The speaker presides over a very narrow majority and any compromise could jeopardize his hold on power. One thing to watch today: US retail sales in December will be reported by the Census Bureau. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Taiwan, the self-governing global chip hub claimed by China, has just 12 allies that recognize it as a sovereign nation, accounting for 0.17% of the world economy and less than 0.5% of its population after the Pacific island state of Nauru cut ties on Monday. That means [it has fewer friends]( to lobby on its behalf in international forums like the United Nations, where it lacks a seat. And Finally In this big year for democracy, [the role of artificial intelligence]( in promoting disinformation is of increasing concern. In Davos, leaders in the field such as Microsoft Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman took the threat of AI on ballots seriously but were split on the likelihood of disruption. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates predicted in an interview that the “bad guys will be more productive” with the technology. WATCH: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Vice President of Global Affairs Anna Makanju speak with Bloomberg’s Brad Stone in Davos. 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