China moves to isolate Taiwan

China moves to further isolate Taiwan after election [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Military drills, trade tariffs and harsh rhetoric were all ways Beijing was predicted to punish Taiwan for its democratic election. In the end, President Xi Jinping delivered his clearest response via a tiny Pacific Island of 13,000 people. The government in Nauru announced today that it was severing diplomatic ties with Taiwan, [a shock move]( after its leader had congratulated current Vice President Lai Ching-te on his victory. Taipei is now left with only a dozen official partners including the US to advocate for its interests at global bodies such as the United Nations, where it’s been banished by Beijing. China’s Foreign Ministry was brazen about the timing. “Of course, we release the information after the election,” said spokeswoman Mao Ning. Taipei said the announcement was “retaliation” for its democratic values. Taiwan’s tightest election in decades dealt a blow to Xi on Saturday. The two camps that favor dialogue with Beijing failed to capitalize on fatigue with the US-friendly ruling party, leaving room for a man China deems a “separatist” to take power. Despite never having ruled Taiwan, the Chinese Communist Party claims the global chip hub as its own and has vowed to bring it under its control one day, by force if necessary. That’s put huge focus on Xi’s potential military intentions toward the island of 23 million people. Beijing has so far skipped major airspace incursions or economic curbs in the wake of the vote. Its ability to convince Nauru to ditch Taiwan was a reminder it [has a range of tools]( for intimidation. Still, Nauru’s departure is mostly symbolic. It’s a minuscule economy with close to zero diplomatic sway. When it comes to Xi’s bigger goal of unifying with Taiwan, the weekend’s ballot exposed that his playbook of military force, banning Taiwanese fruit exports and bombarding the island with angry rhetoric isn’t bringing Taipei closer anytime soon. — [Jenni Marsh]( Anti-landing barriers on a beach in Kinmen, Taiwan, with buildings in Xiamen on mainland China in the background. Photographer: An Rong Xu/Bloomberg Global Must Reads As the Israel-Hamas war enters 100 days, concern is mounting that it will spread from Gaza into a wider conflict. With the appetite growing in Israel for war against Hezbollah and US influence on its ally apparently waning, the [time for a diplomatic resolution]( looks to be running short as Israel pushes the Iranian-backed group to retreat from the Lebanese border. US lawmakers released a stopgap spending bill to avert a partial government shutdown on Jan. 20, greatly reducing [the chances of a closure]( but risking the ire of conservative Republican hardliners against House Speaker Mike Johnson. The Senate will begin procedural votes on the bill, known as a continuing resolution, tomorrow and will require cooperation among the 100 senators to pass it before the deadline. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy heads to the World Economic Forum in Davos this week seeking to refocus global attention on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion and to [unblock $100 billion in vital aid](. The money is stalled in Washington and Brussels as allies grow weary of the expensive war effort with Ukraine’s months-long counteroffensive failing to deliver a breakthrough. Ukrainian soldiers in the Serebryan Forest on Friday. Photographer: Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui’s trip to Russia today could facilitate a visit by Putin to Pyongyang and [enhance arms transfers]( that have replenished the Kremlin’s arsenal to attack Ukraine. A flood of munitions that opened after Kim Jong Un’s visit in September is coming as Kyiv’s stocks of certain types of weaponry are running thin. Furious disputes in the Guatemalan Congress delayed the inauguration of anti-corruption campaigner Bernardo Arevalo as president for more than 10 hours yesterday. For much of the day, the nation appeared to be on [the brink of a constitutional crisis](, keeping foreign leaders including the King of Spain and the presidents of Chile and Colombia waiting for the ceremony. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will address Parliament today after his government said it’s ready to [carry out further strikes]( on Houthi targets in Yemen. Polish President Andrzej Duda rejected the government’s decision to [dismiss a top prosecutor](, complicating Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s effort to overhaul the judiciary. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan asked his officials to [skip this year’s meeting in Davos]( over the organizers’ stance on Israel’s war against Hamas, sources say. Washington Dispatch Voters in Iowa will gather today at hundreds of polling places to vote [in the first contest]( of the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. They will be doing so as dangerous cold weather has descended on the entire US state, plunging temperatures well below zero — and that’s after a blizzard. The National Weather Service warned of wind chills possibly falling “as low as 45F below zero.” That would be the coldest weather ever for the caucuses. Former President Donald Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and ex-ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley yesterday implored their supporters to come out anyway, with Haley, in a post on X, encouraging voters: “Wear layers, and let’s do this.” David Yepsen, a longtime Iowa political journalist now retired, said the outcome of at least one caucus, in 1972, was affected by the weather. A “huge storm” depressed turnout, putting off many supporters of Edmund Muskie, considered the most formidable Democrat. But anti-war activists who favored George McGovern showed up. Muskie still won, but not by as much as expected, and McGovern eventually became the nominee. As for today’s caucuses, Yepsen said: “The party regulars, the activist Republicans and the Trump people, I think will be there.” One person to watch today: President Joe Biden plans to travel to Philadelphia for an event honoring the Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. on the holiday commemorating the civil rights leader. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Trump heads into the caucuses with a commanding 48% support in a closely watched poll that showed Haley moving into second place with 20%. The results of the NBC News/Des Moines Register poll suggest [further trouble for DeSantis](, who dropped to third with 16%. The Florida governor is banking on a strong showing in Iowa to bolster his challenge to the former president. And Finally A renewed volcanic eruption in Iceland destroyed homes for the first time in more than 50 years, as lava flows reached the edge of a fishing town, setting houses alight. While Iceland is used to such events, residents haven’t experienced a [threat to inhabited areas at such a scale]( since 1973, when part of a town of some 5,000 people was buried under lava in the Westman Islands, off the country’s south coast. Lava near Grindavík, Iceland, yesterday. Source: Icelandic Meterological Office We apologize for not including the quiz in the email version of the newsletter on Friday. Here it is: Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which country’s parliament passed a bill to do away with the consumption of dog meat through a rare unanimous vote? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. More from Bloomberg - [Next China](, for dispatches from Beijing on where China stands now — and where it's going next - Check out our [Bloomberg Investigates]( film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries - [India Edition](, an insider’s guide to the emerging economic powerhouse, and the billionaires and businesses behind its rise - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? 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